How about a nice game of 4D Chicken?

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So I was hoping for some guidance or what others think about the post parkland gun control firestorm, gun debate and how it could affect the mid terms.

So as i have been told the Democrats (the incumbent party) lost mightily in the 1994 mid terms. One of the key reasons being gun control. and specifically an Assault Weapons Ban. So fast forward to today. The Democrats are not the incumbents, but are pushing hard for gun control. The Republicans are under pressure from Moderates, and now even the great orange man is breaking his promise and looking at gun restrictions. He is doing this under the "political cover" of the NRA.

Here is the problem from the perspective of the right. Not every gun owner is a fan of the NRA, though they seem to think that. They seem to think that if the NRA says its good, every gun owner will fall into place. From what I am seeing there is a 50/50 split. 50 percent say bump stocks don't matter and there are bigger gun concerns like an AWB. The other 50 percent are dismounting the Trump/republican train, and saying the NRA does not represent them. That they will not vote in coming elections. I emailed the white house and said in no uncertain terms, Short and succinct that if they supported gun control I would not support them, and others would not either. More of a warning than anything. just a few sentences. I got a standardized boiler plate response Email with a reminder that the economy is doing great. Trump is telling republicans not to worry about the NRA and that they are on the republican side. I don't know if they realize the kind of fire they are playing with.


...meanwhile on the other side of the isle. The democrats are pushing gun control hard, There are democrats in purple districts who probably are being a little more mum on the subject. There are several draconian gun bills making the rounds and even places that would seem out of reach for things like an AWB (Utah, Minnesota, Florida, Ohio) have had to fight or will be fighting them/deciding them soon. The fervor to do something seems strong and there is a lot of reach that even at the peak currently may well be over reach. Those words may be coming back to haunt during the mid terms. IF Democrats sweep in (and there seem to be indications that there would be a blue gain, thanks to trump keeping up the ferver, and democrats firing up their base) Will they see it as a mandate to attack guns and possibly take a 1994 misstep? or will it be seen as a repudiation against trump. Will Democrats hold their tongues on guns until after the 2020 white house race?


I have no idea. And I have no idea what the future holds. but I wanted to hear the perspectives of this audience, because its unique in the gun world. Will the republicans getting soft on guns cost them more than the democrats going hard?

Whats at stake? Beyond the politics of blue vs red, the constitution, and people saying they won't give them up without a fight. The words civil war are being thrown around. (I love my country. Only we would decide that the solution to solve mass shootings with guns is to use guns on each other en masse. )

Re: How about a nice game of 4D Chicken?

2
Well, here in Michigan, I was sure that Hillary lost here pretty much because some dumb mf house D decided to file an AWB bill right before the election and crow about it on television. It certainly turned me off, and with the hatred people already felt (unreasonably?) for Hillary, it could have been enough to get some hard right R's to get off their butts and vote. YMMV.

Right now we've got a totally gerrymandered R state senate, a decent majority R house, a totally R Supreme Court, a Republican governor who is term-limited with two strong R candidates and a weak D one. And Stabenow up for reelection- although her opponents seem weak. And the state house just passed a "we don't need no stinking concealed carry permits" while the state senate passed a "carry pretty much everywhere with more training" bill. We're turning redder by the minute. In other words, they don't call it Michissippi for nothing. Gun control does not sell well here, thus far.

Everyone is still going to go out to fight for the governor's race, so that will be the big thing. I don't know enough about any of the other house of representative races but my guy- Walberg - is a total tool who everybody seems to hate but not enough to kick out- particularly after the last gerrymander. There may be an outpouring of D voters, because of the turnip. But Ds do not come out in non-presidential years. I can't see much changing here.

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