2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

1
No one so far is perfect. However, none of the contenders (so far) would make me vote GOP. And I will vote.

I do notice that a lot of the attacks on early candidates seem to be flowing from opposition research groups. The negative news comes out REALLY fast - like someone was holding it back for a purpose.

I also think that so many Dem candidates declaring so early is either a coincidence or just good strategy. The GOP has a lot of money for opposition research (Russia obviously kicks in $$ Millions $$). The more early candidates, the more spread out the targets. Bleed the opposition research money dry early. Get the negative attacks out there early to see how they land.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

2
Considering that the Orange Shit-Stain is easily the worst President in our history, even worse than Dubya, Andrew Johnson, James Buchanan, and John Tyler ("His Accidency"), and truly the first President TOTALLY determined to destroy every aspect of our Liberty, the Separation of Powers, our defense alliances abroad, our trade alliances, and our economy, it's hard to imagine a candidate from EITHER party I wouldn't vote for before him (Wellll, Steve King and Louie Gohmert would make that list, along with every avowed Nazi and Klukker). I'd even hold my nose and vote for that prick Ron Weyden if he ran--and I have a PERSONAL grudge against that shithead!

In fact, The orange shit-stain's ONLY good quality is that he's totally incompetent and incapable of recruiting or retaining competent people! Instead, he's leading the Confederacy of Dunces and he's the head dunce.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

3
I'll vote Dem for one big non-Trump reason. I think we need to do what we can to prevent as much gerrymandering and voter suppression after the 2020 census as we can. I don't see the deep blue and red states flipping overnight. However, many red states have far more GOP congressional representation than the population would indicate.

For example, we have had less than 30% Dems in Congress plus two GOP Senators, Governors, etc. with a 49% Dem voting population (and we've had GOP supermajorities in state house/senate until this year). Gerrymandering works. That really needs to change.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

5
We'll see who the Democrats run against Trump. If it's an Establishment/Oligarchy owned and operated gun grabber (I'd bet on it) I think Bang is dead on. As bad as Trump is I think we'll see him get 4 more years of Hell on Earth.

Hope I'm wrong/Know I'm not.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

6
VodoundaVinci wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:42 am We'll see who the Democrats run against Trump. If it's an Establishment/Oligarchy owned and operated gun grabber (I'd bet on it) I think Bang is dead on. As bad as Trump is I think we'll see him get 4 more years of Hell on Earth.

Hope I'm wrong/Know I'm not.

VooDoo
Sadly, you may be right. We're about to see just how spineless the Senate is: Yesterday, Buzzfeed found the leak that Mueller has the "smoking gun" of the shit-stain telling Cohen to lie to Congress about the Moscow Tower project, and corroborated by witnesses and 10 emails. It also shows that Donny, Jr. lied to Congress when he said his knowledge of the project was peripheral and came from news reports.

Solid, hard, corroborated evidence that Trump suborned actual, real Perjury: Lying to Congress about material matters. Flat-out obstruction of justice. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
(remember: Clinton's lying under oath wasn't material to the Paula Jones suit, so it didn't cross the mandatory legal threshold into perjury. Still, as an officer of the court, lying under oath cost him his law license.)

So there it is: the Smoking Gun. How much will Yertle and the Senate tolerate? Yertle couldn't stop 10 GOPers from voting to continue the sanctions, but did stop 3 more (funny how when the filibuster benefits him, Yertle uses it). But are there 10 more to get to 67, needed to convict in an impeachment? It will be interesting to hear what Graham, who in 1998 lead the House in prosecuting Clinton's impeachment in the Senate has to say about this, far more compelling evidence. Will he thrall, waffle, or say "If this is verified, Trump is through"? I bet on "waffle" for the "win", "thrall" to place, but "Trump is through" as the longest of long-shots.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

7
Bang wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:57 am Honestly, at this point I see Trump winning. His base still loves him. Your average Republican still likes him. Moderates don't seem to mind him. Democrats and left wingers are building up their own complacence by telling themselves "he couldn't possibly win again."

Trump is going to take the next election. I hope I'm wrong.
But his base is shrinking down to those few hardcore evangelicals that think he is the messiah that is bringing about the end times and those that have the red hat stapled to their heads and missing about half their teeth.

The Reptilians are fading away with the boomers. Even the Turtle is saying the only way the Reptilians can win is rigging the elections.

https://www.alternet.org/2019/01/rip-go ... tion-ever/

https://www.alternet.org/2019/01/mitch- ... rent-fair/
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

8
TrueTexan wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:12 am
Bang wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:57 am Honestly, at this point I see Trump winning. His base still loves him. Your average Republican still likes him. Moderates don't seem to mind him. Democrats and left wingers are building up their own complacence by telling themselves "he couldn't possibly win again."

Trump is going to take the next election. I hope I'm wrong.
But his base is shrinking down to those few hardcore evangelicals that think he is the messiah that is bringing about the end times and those that have the red hat stapled to their heads and missing about half their teeth.

The Reptilians are fading away with the boomers. Even the Turtle is saying the only way the Reptilians can win is rigging the elections.

https://www.alternet.org/2019/01/rip-go ... tion-ever/

https://www.alternet.org/2019/01/mitch- ... rent-fair/
Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
106+ recreational uses of firearms
1 defensive use
0 people injured
0 people killed

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

9
Eris wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 am Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
I worry more about how that cornered beast will respond to a Trump loss, indictment, or impeachment.

I also agree that the base is a minority, but they will ALL vote. Look at the midterm turnout. They have enough rabid Trump voters to win. In order to win, Dems across the country will also have to turn out in historic numbers. Dems won't do that with a so-so moderate candidate.

I wonder if the Dems realize yet that turnout can be amazing if they run a progressive? We have non-voters because they usually don't see a difference between the candidates except R & D. We need another round of good candidates challenging every race in every district.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

10
K9s wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:36 pm
Eris wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 am Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
I worry more about how that cornered beast will respond to a Trump loss, indictment, or impeachment.
Both of these.

To me, the degree of hatred, true hatred, between the two parties has intensified to dangerous levels. I think one of the reasons Trump won beside his base was the number of fuckit votes. Do you feel the simmer down low of those wanting to just burn it all down? I don't believe things like tariffs, walls, government shut downs, Kavanaugh hearings, ICE/sancturary cities, fascists/antifa etc. have done much to mend that which put Trump in office to begin with. If anything, the cry to tear it all down grows louder from both parties. Removal of the president isn't going to fix that, only pour more fuel on the fire. It's interesting times out there.

2020 will likely be the most interesting/nail biting election I'll ever witness.

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

11
featureless wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:53 pm
K9s wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:36 pm
Eris wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 am Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
I worry more about how that cornered beast will respond to a Trump loss, indictment, or impeachment.
Both of these.

To me, the degree of hatred, true hatred, between the two parties has intensified to dangerous levels. I think one of the reasons Trump won beside his base was the number of fuckit votes. Do you feel the simmer down low of those wanting to just burn it all down? I don't believe things like tariffs, walls, government shut downs, Kavanaugh hearings, ICE/sancturary cities, fascists/antifa etc. have done much to mend that which put Trump in office to begin with. If anything, the cry to tear it all down grows louder from both parties. Removal of the president isn't going to fix that, only pour more fuel on the fire. It's interesting times out there.

2020 will likely be the most interesting/nail biting election I'll ever witness.
That's why we liberals need to "keep our powder dry!" (metaphorically and, for the black powder and reloading crowd, actually).
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

12
YankeeTarheel wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:02 pm
featureless wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:53 pm
K9s wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:36 pm
Eris wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 am Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
I worry more about how that cornered beast will respond to a Trump loss, indictment, or impeachment.
Both of these.

To me, the degree of hatred, true hatred, between the two parties has intensified to dangerous levels. I think one of the reasons Trump won beside his base was the number of fuckit votes. Do you feel the simmer down low of those wanting to just burn it all down? I don't believe things like tariffs, walls, government shut downs, Kavanaugh hearings, ICE/sancturary cities, fascists/antifa etc. have done much to mend that which put Trump in office to begin with. If anything, the cry to tear it all down grows louder from both parties. Removal of the president isn't going to fix that, only pour more fuel on the fire. It's interesting times out there.

2020 will likely be the most interesting/nail biting election I'll ever witness.
That's why we liberals need to "keep our powder dry!" (metaphorically and, for the black powder and reloading crowd, actually).
Thing is, I don't want to fight, in anyway, other people just based on their beliefs. Obviously, there are historical/current examples of unacceptable behaviors (beliefs become actionable policy) where dry powder is of benefit, even though our current crop of social justice warriors don't recall them and think we should all stand naked in the storm armed only with PC words.

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

13
To give you an example from this state, the new Governor (Kemp) won the election BARELY with 50.2% (almost 2 million votes total out of 6 million registered). The latest polls say his approval is at 37%, so his supporters voted at 90%+ while half of the state despises him. All he needed was his Trumpian base and that is all he has supporting him.

Trump has 38% approval here in GA and they will almost all vote. If the same thing happens in 2020 and Dems don't turn out like Rs do nationwide, Trump will win reelection.
The newly minted governor’s approval rating sits at just 37.2 percent of registered Georgia voters, with nearly half of respondents giving him negative reviews.

Only about one-third of women approve of Kemp, along with just 10 percent of black voters. That’s offset partly by his popularity among his party’s base. About three-quarters of Republicans have a positive view of him, along with 80 percent of conservatives.

That contrasts with Stacey Abrams, the Democrat Kemp narrowly defeated in November. A slim majority of Georgians — 51.9 percent — have positive views of her. That includes about 60 percent of women, two-thirds of moderates and 90 percent of black voters.

Kemp’s numbers largely mirror those of President Donald Trump, who was the model for his campaign for governor. Slight less than 38 percent of Georgia voters approve of the president, who won the state by 5 points in 2016, and just 1 in 5 independents back him. Among Republicans, though, he has an 86 percent approval rating.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

14
If they run someone like Nancy Pelosi they'll lose. It's really that simple. An old rich lady doesn't impress voters anymore than an old rich guy. How many Dems will be running in the primaries this time? 10, 20? Will they be able to break up the Dem primary election fixing and overcome the super delegates? Or will they piss off a huge chunk of their voting block, call them idiots, then expect their vote?

If they start out with a lot of candidates there will be a lot of losers, which could mean a lot of fracturing if the candidate that comes out on top isn't a good one or it's found they hand selected them with super delegates and the primary voting was just for show.
Brian

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

15
"How will history judge President Trump?" by Nick Bryant at BBC. Nick is British and a BBC correspondent but also has a PhD in American politics from Oxford so he understands the US. Some snips.
At the midpoint of Donald Trump's first term, historians have struggled to detect the kind of virtues that offset his predecessors' vices: the infectious optimism of Reagan; the inspirational rhetoric of JFK; the legislative smarts of LBJ; or the governing pragmatism of Nixon.

So rather than being viewed as the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan or Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Trump gets cast as a modern-day James Buchanan, Franklin Pierce or William Harrison. Last year, a poll of nearly 200 political science scholars, which has routinely placed Republicans higher than Democrats, ranked him 44th out of the 44 men who have occupied the post (for those wondering why Trump is the 45th president, Grover Cleveland served twice).

Though the president has likened himself to Abraham Lincoln, who posterity has deemed to be greatest of all presidents, this survey judged him to be the worst of the worst. Even the conservative scholars, who identified themselves as Republicans, placed him 40th.
When Donald Trump took the oath of office, nobody should have been surprised that an anti-politician would morph into an anti-president. In 2016 Americans rejected politics as usual. And diehard supporters still throng his rallies, wearing Make America Great Again caps and chanting for him to build the wall and lock up Hillary Clinton. His approval ratings among Republicans remain strong - 88% according to Gallup. His overall approval rating - 37% according to Gallup - is on a par with Ronald Reagan's at the two-year mark.
Because Donald Trump is unwilling to accept he is anything other than an A+ president, the grade he has bestowed upon himself, he is not prepared to adopt the kind of correctives that have saved troubled presidencies. JFK learnt from the disaster of the Bay of Pigs and the bullying he received from Nikita Khrushchev at the Vienna summit in 1961, which was followed in short order by the Soviet construction of the Berlin Wall. Confronted a year later with the Cuban Missile Crisis, he was less trusting of his generals, who urged airstrikes, and less willing to be pushed around by Khrushchev.
Incumbents can also benefit from self-doubt, a trait Donald Trump seems to regard as a character flaw. Presidents also usually grow in office. But while there are physical signs the 72-year-old is ageing - unable to holiday in Florida over Christmas, he has looked especially tired these past few days - there is little sign he is maturing.

It does not help that so many senior figures within his administration and his party treat him like a child monarch. The cabinet meeting where holders of the highest offices of state went around the table lavishing praise upon the president felt like Pyongyang on the Potomac. Vice-President Mike Pence has perfected the devoted gaze of the prototypical political wife. Senior Republicans, who privately roll their eyes, have been admiring, even sycophantic, in his presence.
By abrogating behavioural customs, Donald Trump has made the presidency more uncouth and less trustworthy. By departing from executive and managerial norms, he has made domestic and foreign policy-making more impulsive and disorderly. By fraying traditional alliances, he has made the US presidency more isolated. By threatening to declare a national emergency in the funding row over his wall along the Mexican border, he has also indicated a willingness to discard constitutional norms that could mean exceeding constitutional limits.

The cumulative effect of this has been to make the Oval Office a focal point of perpetual turmoil and uncertainty, with the White House hostage to the changing whims and temper of its occupant. Governing sometimes feels secondary to winning political and cultural battles, and slaying opponents. His presidency has become a roiling permanent campaign.

Will his impact bring about more permanent changes? That will depend, to a large extent, on whether or not he wins a second term. Defeat in 2020 would represent a repudiation of his leadership style. Victory would be validating. Yet even as a one-term president, Trump would have changed the character of the presidency and US politics more broadly.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46895634

Democrats have to come up with a strong alternative to Trump. And House Democrats have to keep investigating Trump and use the media to reveal the results. Investigation after investigation not impeachment. As much as we'd like to believe that the popular vote counts, it's the state by state electoral votes that win the WH. CA, OR, WA, IL, NY, MA are a given, win back WI, MI and PA and get FL and OH.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

19
The past 2 or 3 years have seemed like 10. We have a long way to go and a lot of things can happen. It would take something big for Trump not to run.

I thought Trump campaign and the RNC are the same thing now (seriously) and some states are considering no Republican primary. The RNC is the Trump campaign now.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/ ... nc-1067875

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics ... index.html
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

20
Dang, I wonder how the independent runners will do? All these billionaires with big hopes. What a mess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Advisers to former Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz looking at possibility of independent run for presidency in 2020

The prospect would raise alarms among Democrats fearful that a three-way race could benefit President Trump. Schultz, who is worth more than $3 billion, has not said if he will run for president, as a Democrat or otherwise. As Schultz, 65, considers his options, the Democratic field continues to grow.
Former Ohio governor John Kasich, a Republican, also is considering an independent campaign.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

21
I can envision the republicans running two separate right wing campaigns to siphon off votes from those that can't stand Trump, but just a wee bit less than a Dem. Would double their chances of Turnip winning. 2020 is a keystone election. We best not fuck up this time.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

22
As far as I know, legally they can't be merged because of reporting, contributions ... but whoever occupies the WH controls their party. Whoever runs on the Republican side needs some strong financial backers and they can't be bullied in debates with Trump. Trump wants to play junk yard dog so they have to have put downs to use, president or not and not let Trump control the debates. Otherwise they're just window dressing opposition, not real candidates.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

23
K9s wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:36 pm
Eris wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:35 am Those number just mean that the Republicans are now a cornered beast. Expect it to turn on you with a strength and ferocity that will astound you.
I worry more about how that cornered beast will respond to a Trump loss, indictment, or impeachment.

I expect that they'll throw a hissy fit, accuse the Russians, riot & destroy property, march, protest, establish Special Counsels, hold candlelight vigils, lie to courts to obtain warrants for surveillance, enlist the media to go on 24x7 about the latest "Bombshell" or "Smoking Gun" that will be proved false within 24 hours, the FBI will open investigations on false pretenses ..... oh, wait, ummm, that's what's been happening for 2 years.

Hey, I didn't vote for the guy, but I am utterly opposed to this ongoing attempt at a coup. Y'all have to recognize what happens when a precedent is set, there's no going back and it will be used against your team when the power gets reversed. Which it always does. I may vote for Trump in 2020, just out of spite. Unless Tulsi Gabbard can get past the crooked DNC.

Re: 2020 - Does it really matter who runs for Prez?

25
Here's a lesson in Civics: It's not a coup d'etat. It's a fully legal action sanctioned by the Constitution of the United States and has been in place since 1787 when it was ratified.
It is a fully legal procedure for removing any Federal Government Official who violates the conditions listed as " Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors":
The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.
Judgment in Cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
and, finally, and most importantly:
The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.
A coup is BY DEFINITION an illegal seizure of power, of overthrow of the existing power, by force and possibly violence.
Impeaching a President is a legal action. When Pinochet's forces charged in on Salvador Allende and machine-gunned the legally elected President of Chile, THAT was a coup!

Impeachment is, because of the VERY high bar (67 Senators must vote to convict), beyond partisanship.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Semrush [Bot] and 3 guests