Sobering numbers

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highdesert
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Sobering numbers

#1 Post by highdesert » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:24 am

Stumbled on these numbers by CDC, drug overdose mortality by state in 2017. Over 72,000 deaths, almost 200 per day. If you sort by the deaths column, Pennsylvania is #1, North Dakota is #50. It doesn't include DC which would likely be high.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosm ... soning.htm
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Re: Sobering numbers

#2 Post by AndyH » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:36 am

I'm guessing more people will be 'self deporting' if the .gov shutdown continues.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#3 Post by VodoundaVinci » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:52 am

Yes unfortunately deaths by narcotics and other drugs dwarfs death via guns. I wish we'd get serious about finding the root causes of why folks in the US want to kill - themselves or others - and get after a solution to those problems rather than fixating on "stuff" or objects. Sad statistics. Sobering indeed.

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Re: Sobering numbers

#4 Post by AndyH » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:03 am

CDC says about 610,000 die each year from heart disease, 88,000 from alcohol, and another 79,535 from diabetes - all lifestyle related, primarily. 2.7 million Americans die each year. Perspective is useful, I'm thinking.

Since we humans passed the point of sustainability in about 1974, maybe the subconscious motivation for some is to check-out before the crash.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#5 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:35 am

Of the 40,000 gun deaths, about 24,000 are suicides.
About 16,000 other gun deaths, but in 2016 there were 822 long gun homicides--including shotguns and all rifles, not just "assault weapons".
So 5% of all gun deaths are long-gun homicides, 2% of all gun deaths, less than 1% of alcohol deaths, just over 1% of diabetes deaths. just over 1.1% of drug-related deaths.

That's ALL long gun homicides.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#6 Post by highdesert » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:22 am

This is the CDC chart on firearms mortality by state, Texas is #1 and Hawaii is #50.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosm ... irearm.htm
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Re: Sobering numbers

#7 Post by featureless » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:07 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:35 am
Of the 40,000 gun deaths, about 24,000 are suicides.
About 16,000 other gun deaths, but in 2016 there were 822 long gun homicides--including shotguns and all rifles, not just "assault weapons".
So 5% of all gun deaths are long-gun homicides, 2% of all gun deaths, less than 1% of alcohol deaths, just over 1% of diabetes deaths. just over 1.1% of drug-related deaths.

That's ALL long gun homicides.
YT, not sure where your numbers are coming from, but they are higher than what the FBI reports for 2016. Maybe deaths vs. homicides?
Total firearm homicides was 11,004.
Rifle homicides was 374 (inclusive of the "assault weapon")
Handguns was 7,105
Shotguns was 262
Not stated was 3,077 (can be virtually certain this does not account for any evil firearm, since those are sensationally reported)

For comparison, 2016 homicide with other weapons:
Knives 1,604
Blunt object 472
Meat (fists, feet) 656

So you're more likely to be stabbed, clubbed or beaten to death than shot with an AR.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-4.xls

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Re: Sobering numbers

#8 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:24 pm

11,004 homicides vs 16,000 gun deaths--that means roughly 5,000 are not homicides

822 long gun homicides was the 2016 figure, not 2017 or 2018. 374+262=636 I thought the 374 was only semi-auto rifles..but I could be wrong.

Still, we're quibbling over granular numbers when the trends are obvious: Long gun homicides are a tiny, tiny fraction of preventable deaths, when the emphasis should be on efforts that save far more lives.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#9 Post by featureless » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:52 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:24 pm
11,004 homicides vs 16,000 gun deaths--that means roughly 5,000 are not homicides

822 long gun homicides was the 2016 figure, not 2017 or 2018. 374+262=636 I thought the 374 was only semi-auto rifles..but I could be wrong.

Still, we're quibbling over granular numbers when the trends are obvious: Long gun homicides are a tiny, tiny fraction of preventable deaths, when the emphasis should be on efforts that save far more lives.
Quibbling, yes. :) I just like to know sources when I see numbers. The 374 from FBI is all rifles.

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Re: Sobering numbers

#10 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:43 pm

featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:52 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:24 pm
11,004 homicides vs 16,000 gun deaths--that means roughly 5,000 are not homicides

822 long gun homicides was the 2016 figure, not 2017 or 2018. 374+262=636 I thought the 374 was only semi-auto rifles..but I could be wrong.

Still, we're quibbling over granular numbers when the trends are obvious: Long gun homicides are a tiny, tiny fraction of preventable deaths, when the emphasis should be on efforts that save far more lives.
Quibbling, yes. :) I just like to know sources when I see numbers. The 374 from FBI is all rifles.
Look at the FBI data again for 2016
Handguns: 7105
Rifles: 374
Shotguns: 262
Other Guns: 186

Note that Rifles, Shotguns, and other Guns adds up to 822.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-4.xls
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My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: Sobering numbers

#11 Post by dougb » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:02 pm

The trend seems to be that most gun deaths are suicide. Gun control would possibly reduce gun deaths, but not suicides. Deaths would remain constant, just filed in a different slot. But apparently gun control is "doing something". Ineffective, but something.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#12 Post by featureless » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:05 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:43 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:52 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:24 pm
11,004 homicides vs 16,000 gun deaths--that means roughly 5,000 are not homicides

822 long gun homicides was the 2016 figure, not 2017 or 2018. 374+262=636 I thought the 374 was only semi-auto rifles..but I could be wrong.

Still, we're quibbling over granular numbers when the trends are obvious: Long gun homicides are a tiny, tiny fraction of preventable deaths, when the emphasis should be on efforts that save far more lives.
Quibbling, yes. :) I just like to know sources when I see numbers. The 374 from FBI is all rifles.
Look at the FBI data again for 2016
Handguns: 7105
Rifles: 374
Shotguns: 262
Other Guns: 186

Note that Rifles, Shotguns, and other Guns adds up to 822.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-4.xls
:) Was more curious about your 16,000 deaths, not disagreement with your long gun aggregate. Maybe the extra 5,000 or so were oopsies? Important to stick with homicides, since that is the thing one has little control over. When discussing rifle deaths, stick with 374 since a rifle is not a shotgun and that 374 includes those attributed to the evil AR. I dunno....

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Re: Sobering numbers

#13 Post by JohnNewell » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:10 pm

AndyH wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:03 am
CDC says about 610,000 die each year from heart disease, 88,000 from alcohol, and another 79,535 from diabetes - all lifestyle related, primarily. 2.7 million Americans die each year. Perspective is useful, I'm thinking.

Since we humans passed the point of sustainability in about 1974, maybe the subconscious motivation for some is to check-out before the crash.
I don't know if I'd call heart disease totally "lifestyle related." My mom has had CHF for decades, and never drank nor smoked. Many heart diseases are more a matter of genetics than lack of exercise or lifestyle.

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Re: Sobering numbers

#14 Post by AndyH » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:42 pm

JohnNewell wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:10 pm
AndyH wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:03 am
CDC says about 610,000 die each year from heart disease, 88,000 from alcohol, and another 79,535 from diabetes - all lifestyle related, primarily. 2.7 million Americans die each year. Perspective is useful, I'm thinking.

Since we humans passed the point of sustainability in about 1974, maybe the subconscious motivation for some is to check-out before the crash.
I don't know if I'd call heart disease totally "lifestyle related." My mom has had CHF for decades, and never drank nor smoked. Many heart diseases are more a matter of genetics than lack of exercise or lifestyle.
How was her diet and exercise?
I agree that it's a bit of a generalization. For the typical American, though, it fits pretty well. Smoking isn't in the top 5, and alcohol is 5th.
Americans at Risk for Heart Disease
High blood pressure, high cholesterol, and smoking are key risk factors for heart disease. About half of Americans (47%) have at least one of these three risk factors.7

Several other medical conditions and lifestyle choices can also put people at a higher risk for heart disease, including:

Diabetes
Overweight and obesity
Poor diet
Physical inactivity
Excessive alcohol use
https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
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Re: Sobering numbers

#15 Post by TrueTexan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:46 pm

But may of the heart problems are linked to poor diet and lack of exercises along with other diseases, such as Diabetes and High Blood Pressure. Yes there are people that have a genetic disposition to heart disease.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#16 Post by TrueTexan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:51 pm

More sobering numbers
The US birth rate was down in nearly all 50 states in 2017 and below the level needed for the population to replace itself, according to a new government report.

Nationwide, the fertility rate was 16 percent lower than what is required to keep the population level steady, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed Thursday.

Experts say this is likely due to the fact that the large proportion of native-born women are having fewer children than before.

CDC researchers also found that the US white population has been hit hard by the Great Recession of 2008 and is aging.

The CDC reported in May that the US birth rate has fallen for three straight years. The agency said the number of US babies born in 2017 fell 2 percent from 2016 to 3.85 million, a 30-year low.

Demographers and public policy experts say if the rate continues to decline, there will not be enough healthy, young workers to keep the economy going and replace an aging population

Researchers looked at the birth certificates from all 50 states, in addition to Washington, DC. The nation’s capital had the lowest birth rate.

The only states that are keeping up with the population are South Dakota and Utah.

“Many states have seen fewer births and more deaths in recent years,” said Sandra Johnson, a demographer in the Population Division of the US Census Bureau.

“If those states are not gaining from either domestic or international migration they will experience either low population growth or outright decline,” she said.

Declining birth rates in Western societies have been the subject of considerable public analysis in recent months.

A recent study by a conservative think tank in Washington, DC, found that that fertility rates in the United States have declined significantly and could fall to their lowest rates ever.

The research, "Declining Fertility in America," which was released in December by the American Enterprise Institute, shows that birth rates have fallen in America to one of the lowest recorded levels, and could drop even further to record low levels.

Most of these drops in birth rates are a result of changing marital habits, mainly young people delaying marriage, said the report's author, Lyman Stone.

Policy responses are unlikely to effectively address the many challenges young people face regarding childbearing and a significant recovery in birth rates is not likely, Stone predicts.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/01/ ... birth-rate

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Re: Sobering numbers

#17 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:30 pm

featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:05 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:43 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:52 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:24 pm
11,004 homicides vs 16,000 gun deaths--that means roughly 5,000 are not homicides

822 long gun homicides was the 2016 figure, not 2017 or 2018. 374+262=636 I thought the 374 was only semi-auto rifles..but I could be wrong.

Still, we're quibbling over granular numbers when the trends are obvious: Long gun homicides are a tiny, tiny fraction of preventable deaths, when the emphasis should be on efforts that save far more lives.
Quibbling, yes. :) I just like to know sources when I see numbers. The 374 from FBI is all rifles.
Look at the FBI data again for 2016
Handguns: 7105
Rifles: 374
Shotguns: 262
Other Guns: 186

Note that Rifles, Shotguns, and other Guns adds up to 822.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-4.xls
:) Was more curious about your 16,000 deaths, not disagreement with your long gun aggregate. Maybe the extra 5,000 or so were oopsies? Important to stick with homicides, since that is the thing one has little control over. When discussing rifle deaths, stick with 374 since a rifle is not a shotgun and that 374 includes those attributed to the evil AR. I dunno....
The CDC just released numbers for 2018 and just under 40,000 total gun deaths and just under 24,000 gun suicides were listed. 16,000 is the remainder.
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Re: Sobering numbers

#18 Post by featureless » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:43 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:30 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:05 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:43 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:52 pm


Quibbling, yes. :) I just like to know sources when I see numbers. The 374 from FBI is all rifles.
Look at the FBI data again for 2016
Handguns: 7105
Rifles: 374
Shotguns: 262
Other Guns: 186

Note that Rifles, Shotguns, and other Guns adds up to 822.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-4.xls
:) Was more curious about your 16,000 deaths, not disagreement with your long gun aggregate. Maybe the extra 5,000 or so were oopsies? Important to stick with homicides, since that is the thing one has little control over. When discussing rifle deaths, stick with 374 since a rifle is not a shotgun and that 374 includes those attributed to the evil AR. I dunno....
The CDC just released numbers for 2018 and just under 40,000 total gun deaths and just under 24,000 gun suicides were listed. 16,000 is the remainder.
Thanks for the source. I wish CDC would stick to using homicide rather than total non suicide deaths. There's a 5,000 difference that skews statistics pretty badly when lumped in with guns causing death used by media, et. al. (even leaving the 2/3 suicide number out, which media doesn't do either).

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Re: Sobering numbers

#19 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:17 pm

Sorry for the confusion Featureless. Glad I could clear it up.
Statistics are pretty automatic to me since I started programming in them around 1981...
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Re: Sobering numbers

#20 Post by featureless » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:15 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:17 pm
Sorry for the confusion Featureless. Glad I could clear it up.
Statistics are pretty automatic to me since I started programming in them around 1981...
I'm a math idiot, so much clarification is called for! :beer2:

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Re: Sobering numbers

#21 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:35 pm

featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:15 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:17 pm
Sorry for the confusion Featureless. Glad I could clear it up.
Statistics are pretty automatic to me since I started programming in them around 1981...
I'm a math idiot, so much clarification is called for! :beer2:
Drink more beer!
"Fascism comes along when the rich people get the generals to help them stay in control." -- Woody Guthrie
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: Sobering numbers

#22 Post by AndyH » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:35 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:35 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:15 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:17 pm
Sorry for the confusion Featureless. Glad I could clear it up.
Statistics are pretty automatic to me since I started programming in them around 1981...
I'm a math idiot, so much clarification is called for! :beer2:
Drink more beer!
So...the universal foreign language improvement technique works with numbers too? Who knew?! :lol:
“There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.” Heinlein
You can’t take the Razorback! She is gone and gone and gone!

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