Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

26
That's one good thing about living in low population state who's main industry is exporting food. We grow so much we convert it into biodiesel and ethanol. If farmers had to stop irrigating they could still feed the state easily. We alternate with Texas in beef production depending on if they have drought conditions or not.

The wind never stops blowing here and we're close to the Powder River Basin in Wyoming so coal delivery by train is easy. The Nuclear plants could run for multiple years before they need refueling. They are starting to add more wind turbine farms and exporting the power because we don't need it. Power, water, fuel and food wouldn't be hard to come by if things reset.

NYC with high density populations that rely on purchasing all their supplies from the outside world would be greatly affected by a financial meltdown. They rely on the financial markets for a lot of their jobs.
Brian

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

27
Worst real world scenario? Hackers managing to take down the power grid across the country, or a solar storm that has a similar impact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation ... story.html

That stuff worries me more than about anything. The US without power for an extended period would be catastrophic. A large enough solar storm could blow up enough key infrastructure to take us offline for 6 months or more. Who knows how bad a serious hack could be. In my immediate area, earthquakes are a concern- we had a big one that took a pretty serious toll on the community in 2014, some buildings still haven't been repaired. But that's localized.
“Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better.”
- Maya Angelou

Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

28
To the subject title: hard to tell. Taking the long view of human history, well, things can get pretty darn bad. Short term? This country has tremendous resources and professional emergency services in depth, so I doubt things would be very bad for very long.

I began seriously considering firearms for self defense for two reasons. First, I was in L.A. during the Rodney King riots. Wherever my sympathies lie, being in a riot situation where neighborhoods are aflame, people are getting killed, and police and general order are nowhere to be found, it occurred to me that being armed may well save my life and those of my loved ones. A mob isn't going to care what my social or political allegiances are.

The second reason was the growing right wing extremist movement. There is a lot of anger out there, much of it emanating from that quarter, and right wing extremists have proven to be capable of violence. Perhaps relating to that fringe, 'save the country, kill a liberal'-style of bumperstickers have become vogue. I don't find that thinking funny.

Bad stuff happens and if it happens near me, I would want to make my family and my home an undesirable target for anyone who would wish us ill.

I currently live in the Cascadia Subduction Zone which, if it was to have a full-length rupture, would leave an entire region in ruin. Bridges down, seaside cities wiped out, utility services out of commission for Months. So, yeah, I concern myself with having a plan. ;)

Having said all that and beyond having a plan and emergency supplies of first aid, water, and food for my family, I think the best strategy is to develop and sustain strong relationships with your neighbors. :)
"I am not a number, I am a free man!" - Number Six

Image

Image
Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

29
shinzen wrote:Worst real world scenario? Hackers managing to take down the power grid across the country, or a solar storm that has a similar impact.
A very real concern. The impact of a Carrington event or a serious assault on the grid could be catastrophic. In my previous life I worried about the impact of severe space weather events a lot. $trillions in the first year and several years to recover.

Interesting, albeit heavy reading here: http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/wp-conten ... -FINAL.pdf
Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

37
NASA has a number of assets (SDO, STEREO) that give us decent warning. The issue is the high speed particles that are fast moving but not relativistic so the time scales are longer than the 8 minutes it takes for the x-ray photons to get here. So there is time to react. The problem is that the grid is not configured to withstand the inductively-generated currents.

My knowledge of this is a little out of date, although I did have a conversation a few years ago with the CEO of a large Midwestern electric generating company. His biggest worry was not solar activity - although he admitted that it was a serious concern - it was a coordinated terror attack on several major transformers.
Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

39
You may be right about the induction and granite. Another factor is the higher latitude means the earth's field is a little stronger so when the ionized plasma in the CME wangs the crap out of the field (pardon the technical jargon), the induced currents will be stronger.

But, the Carrington Event induced currents so strong in the telegraph wires that the Sparks set the telegraph operators paper on fire! Also, the telegraphs continued to work for a while after their power was shut off. Amazing stuff.

The Carrington Event was truly extraordinary but we can't say that it was the most extreme event that is possible.
Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

40
Black out. No electricity. For whatever the reason, I fear a loss of air-conditioning. I don't mind hunting if I must, but an Italian from Publix is a nice filler. Stores closed, people frantically trying to get gas, water etc. I don't know but it's really my stupid neighbors who I worry about most. They couldn't catch a fucking butterfly.

I think as the weather changes and people continue to breed vigorously we're probably looking at shortages of orange juice and first cold pressed vegetable oil.
Image
Keep Bow Tight ~Sitting Bull
http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/90682-i ... ooks-ahead

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

41
If we lose the power grid, no more refrigeration, and if an EMP takes out the trucks too, very little food transport, which means mass starvation once the canned food runs out.

If you are going to be a prepper, you'd best be a very low profile prepper in a VERY remote area. Having a tribe of like-minded people would greatly increase your chances of survival.

We could also get hit by an asteroid, and then it's game over.

The coastal Pacific Northwest is a massive earthquake and tsunami waiting to happen, and Yellowstone Park is on top of the massive lava dome of a super volcano that would wipe out most of the U.S. if it erupts and plunge the world into a sunless global winter.

No point in worrying about it....

The Universe Is Expanding (from Woody Allen's movie "Take the Money and Run"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U1-OmAICpU
"When and if fascism comes to America... it will be called, of course, ‘Americanism'." - Halford Luccock
"Liberty without socialism is privilege and injustice. Socialism without liberty is slavery and brutality."
— Mikhail Bakunin

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

43
Bacchus wrote:To the subject title: hard to tell. Taking the long view of human history, well, things can get pretty darn bad. Short term? This country has tremendous resources and professional emergency services in depth, so I doubt things would be very bad for very long.

I began seriously considering firearms for self defense for two reasons. First, I was in L.A. during the Rodney King riots. Wherever my sympathies lie, being in a riot situation where neighborhoods are aflame, people are getting killed, and police and general order are nowhere to be found, it occurred to me that being armed may well save my life and those of my loved ones. A mob isn't going to care what my social or political allegiances are.
That whole scene was mayhem..it wasn't even close to Watts.
Recall the unfortunate truck driver who was literally pulled from the cab of his vehicle, and pounded with bricks until he fell to the ground bleeding profusely..
Everyone went nuts looting stores and businesses...guess who didn't get their property trashed..the Asian business owners who were up on the rooftops with rifles, this I saw on the news.

People will act out to how they are wired in a crisis. Some may help others, some may be out for the "I'm gonna get what I can" mentality.
I have always considered the Prepper thing a bit extreme...but lately I'm reconsidering this.
So maybe a good First Aid Kit, some freeze-dried food for a week, and sundry items.
A firearm or two certainly will help out.

Worst case scenario is a major disaster that effects power, food, the economy..the basics people
have come to for the most part count on..
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

44
Humanity has always done a good to decent job at muddling though. My biggest fears for disruption in the short term are when Trump looses the election and his sheep followers engage in a little bit of domestic terrorism driven by aggravated mental illness. Just like what happened after President Obama was sworn in. My longer term fear is that the "Sovereign Citizen" movement actually gets some legs under it. Many of these people are either grifters or are so alienated from our Republic that they don't believe its legitimate.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

45
MaxwellG wrote: I have always considered the Prepper thing a bit extreme...but lately I'm reconsidering this.
So maybe a good First Aid Kit, some freeze-dried food for a week, and sundry items.
A firearm or two certainly will help out.
I am a moderator for one of the many prepper forums out there. And yes, being a liberal prepper is just as difficult as being a liberal gun owner. And just like gun forums, prepper forums have some real paranoid nut-soes.

At the same time, our own federal government recommends that all Americans have a 3 day kit. As a prepper, I would encourage you to have a one month supply of food, water and medications. That will get you through most of what could happen--not everything, but most of it.
All religions united with government are more or less inimical to liberty. All, separated from government, are compatible with liberty.-Henry Clay
Both oligarch and tyrant mistrust the people, and therefore deprive them of their arms.—Aristotle

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

46
Kodiak3d wrote:Let me preface this by saying that I'm not someone who thinks we're near the end of civilization or anything like that...

That being said, what prompted me to start building my AR-15 is the violence at Trump rallies. I realized that the there are too many people on the far-right that have been drinking the kool-aid being served to them for the past several years. They've been worked up into a such a paranoid fear that they're all-too-ready to go to violence, and that makes them potentially dangerous. I started thinking, "You know...maybe having an AR-15 wouldn't be such a bad idea." The strong anti-intellectual sentiment in the US also bothers me.

It makes me kinda wonder, "What IS the worst that could happen?" If there were to be a conservative move against the government, what would happen? Would they be put down like cattle? Would they be an insurgency like some of the middle east countries have to deal with? Is a full blown civil war possible?
Politically I am more worried about the candidate who wants to take that AR15 you're building away from you, or at least deny you the ability to build another or to pass the one you have on to heirs.
trump followers aren't going to do that, nor are they the ones who would riot. Leave that to the residents of large metro areas dominated by Democrats.
As for what could happen, everyone should be preparing for natural disasters. That could be long term power outages that have already happened. Weather-related issues to your area, whether they be tornado, hurricane, etc. Economic setbacks like loss of job, shortages in various critical commodities that would affect all of us personally and as a nation. use Venezuela as an extreme example, or the gas shortages of the 1970s for those who lived through them. The dot com bubble bursting, the 2008 recession...any of those are precedents of what might happen, and are not some crazy crackpot concern because they HAVE happened.
Once you've planned for all of those, start thinking about the less likely stuff. Revolutions, civil wars..those sorts of things that might occur in some peoples fantasies but happen a whole lot less in real life.
And while you're at it, don't forget to enjoy the simple things in life in the here and now. if you're always focused on Doomsday, it's easy to overlook or fail to enjoy the life we have.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

47
My worst-case scenario is a magnitude 8+ quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. My biggest worry is that the rain barrels that contain my emergency water supply will tip over and spill it all. Barring that, I should be good if they get the utilities back on in two to three weeks.

I'm tempted to stash a roll of chicken wire to nail over the windows in the event of a quake, just to slow down potential troublemakers. Haven't taken that step yet.
IMR4227: Zero to 900 in 0.001 seconds

I'm only killing paper and my self-esteem.

Image
Image

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

48
Earthquake would be worst I expect. Ok, that and rabid trump supporters who feel emboldened by his win, but mostly earthquake. Living on the New Madrid fault line in a city not built for quakes, and owning a house built in 1920 made of 16 inches of clay brick, when another big quake hits like it did 100 years ago, it will be disastrous and chaotic for days, maybe weeks. Much of st.louis is brick, and old brick construction. After a huge fire around the turn of the century (1900) , along with being close to large clay deposits and brick foundries back in the day, everyone used brick over sticks, and bricks dont wobble well during quakes.

An equal disaster would be Yellowstone. Thats a mega pressure cooker waiting to happen, and when she blows were all screwed
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/
Sent from my LGLS770 using Tapatalk
Last edited by dandad on Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
This is just my opinion, yours may vary and is no less valid.
- Me -

"I will never claim to be an expert, and it has been my experience that self proclaimed experts are usually self proclaimed."
-Me-

I must proof read more

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

49
ErikO wrote:Having had a front row seat to civil disobedience, it is now tied with the New Madrid fault shifting.
Your out a way, a front row seat is right. I'm in south st.louis just a few miles from the fault line that runs up parallel with the river.

Sent from my LGLS770 using Tapatalk
This is just my opinion, yours may vary and is no less valid.
- Me -

"I will never claim to be an expert, and it has been my experience that self proclaimed experts are usually self proclaimed."
-Me-

I must proof read more

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

50
The Donald and Putin are talking about cranking up the nuclear arms race again. Donny wants more and better, Putin wants enough to overwhelm any defense we can mount. Thats always been the Russian tactic. And the more Donald talks, the more you realize he doesn't really know much about anything except manipulating people for his own gain.
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.
- Ronald Reagan

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests