What's the worst you really think would happen?

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Marlene
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Marlene »

and that means what in this conversation? I said I could imagine worse things than the outcome of a nuclear war. You seem to think we are disagreeing about whether death is bad? I'm just saying I can think of things that are worse than (on the whole) death on a massive scale that happens in a way that involves comparatively little suffering for most people involved. Why do you think that means I wouldn't think those deaths were bad?

You're assuming a lot and explaining yourself very little.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by YankeeTarheel »

Marlene wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:45 pm
and that means what in this conversation? I said I could imagine worse things than the outcome of a nuclear war. You seem to think we are disagreeing about whether death is bad? I'm just saying I can think of things that are worse than (on the whole) death on a massive scale that happens in a way that involves comparatively little suffering for most people involved. Why do you think that means I wouldn't think those deaths were bad?

You're assuming a lot and explaining yourself very little.
Actually, Marlene, I think we're talking at cross-purposes. It's not that I don't think people dying slowly and in great pain isn't horrible. Of course I do!

But I see the ending of ALL life on Earth, and that's not just people but everything from viruses and extremophiles, to giant redwoods and sunflowers, to honeybees, snail darters, honey badgers, algae and bacteria, sand dollars and sea biscuits, dragonflies, buckwheat, snow leopards, lowland gorillas, orcas....and humans as LITERALLY the worst possible catastrophe in the story of our planet, far worse than the asteroid that killed off the dinosaurs, far worse even than global warming. The only thing I can imagine worse is a super-nova that melts the entire solar system into plasma.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Marlene »

Right, and I'm asking why you think that.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by SailDesign »

Marlene wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:19 pm
Reading is motherfucking fundamental.
And some comprehension of what the words meant...... :)
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Eris »

At the risk of being pedantic, a full scale nuclear war using every weapon possessed by every nation would not be sufficient to eradicate all life on Earth. Not by a long shot. Consider these numbers:

Energy of a large asteroid strike
https://www.real-world-physics-problems ... mpact.html
For example, consider an asteroid that is one kilometer in diameter and weighs 1.4 billion tonnes (M = 1.4×1012 kilograms), and is traveling at 20 kilometers per second (V = 20,000 m/s). The kinetic energy would be equal to (1/2)×1.4×10^12×(20,000)2 = 2.8×10^20 Joules.
Energy of a nuclear weapon
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/effects1.shtml
One megaton is equivalent to 4.18 x 10^15 joules.
Total nuclear weapons in world
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/ ... r_2009.pdf
Approximately 23,335 weapons with ~ 6400 MT (megatons) yield
The asteroid strike is more than 10x as powerful as all nuclear weapons combined, and yet life on Earth not only has survived such an event, but it has thrived since it happened. In fact, the Chicxulub asteroid that is thought to have precipitated the demise of the dinosaurs was much bigger than the theoretical asteroid above. It's impact energy has been estimated at 1.3x10^24 Joules at a minimum!
http://astrobiology.com/2014/03/assessm ... actor.html
We found that the kinetic energy of the impactor is in the range from 1.3e24 J to 5.8e25 J
So while a nuclear war would surely be devastating, there's simply no way it could result in the end of all life on Earth.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by lurker »

i'm somewhat skeptical about the value of human life in the cosmic scheme of things, so except for the fact that i AM one, yeah, go ahead, nuke us off the planet. the universe might well be a better place if the humans could be gotten rid of without harming any dolphins. on the other hand, life in general is a beautiful thing here on what would otherwise be a barren rock, so let's not kill everything, try to leave some prions or amino acids or protozoans or invertebrates or something so life can restart. it would probably be best if we could just kill all the politicians, but i don't think that's really practical, or even possible because they are already soulless dead-inside things and seem to reproduce like cockroaches.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by YankeeTarheel »

Eris wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:54 pm
At the risk of being pedantic, a full scale nuclear war using every weapon possessed by every nation would not be sufficient to eradicate all life on Earth. Not by a long shot. Consider these numbers:

Energy of a large asteroid strike
https://www.real-world-physics-problems ... mpact.html
For example, consider an asteroid that is one kilometer in diameter and weighs 1.4 billion tonnes (M = 1.4×1012 kilograms), and is traveling at 20 kilometers per second (V = 20,000 m/s). The kinetic energy would be equal to (1/2)×1.4×10^12×(20,000)2 = 2.8×10^20 Joules.
Energy of a nuclear weapon
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/effects1.shtml
One megaton is equivalent to 4.18 x 10^15 joules.
Total nuclear weapons in world
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/ ... r_2009.pdf
Approximately 23,335 weapons with ~ 6400 MT (megatons) yield
The asteroid strike is more than 10x as powerful as all nuclear weapons combined, and yet life on Earth not only has survived such an event, but it has thrived since it happened. In fact, the Chicxulub asteroid that is thought to have precipitated the demise of the dinosaurs was much bigger than the theoretical asteroid above. It's impact energy has been estimated at 1.3x10^24 Joules at a minimum!
http://astrobiology.com/2014/03/assessm ... actor.html
We found that the kinetic energy of the impactor is in the range from 1.3e24 J to 5.8e25 J
So while a nuclear war would surely be devastating, there's simply no way it could result in the end of all life on Earth.
You forget 2 things:
1) the Asteroid strike wasn't what killed the dinosaurs. It was the massive dust cloud that cooled the planet.
2) It's not the nuclear blasts that do the most damage, it's the radioactive fallout that persists for thousands of years and spreads out around the planet.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by YankeeTarheel »

Marlene wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:38 pm
Right, and I'm asking why you think that.
Why the catastrophic end of everything alive is bad?
Or why the catastrophic destructive vaporization of the planet and the entire solar system is bad, including all life?

I dunno. Seems kinda self-evident to me that it's a Bad Thing.
""If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you." -- LBJ

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Eris »

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:09 pm
Eris wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:54 pm
At the risk of being pedantic, a full scale nuclear war using every weapon possessed by every nation would not be sufficient to eradicate all life on Earth. Not by a long shot. Consider these numbers:

Energy of a large asteroid strike
https://www.real-world-physics-problems ... mpact.html
For example, consider an asteroid that is one kilometer in diameter and weighs 1.4 billion tonnes (M = 1.4×1012 kilograms), and is traveling at 20 kilometers per second (V = 20,000 m/s). The kinetic energy would be equal to (1/2)×1.4×10^12×(20,000)2 = 2.8×10^20 Joules.
Energy of a nuclear weapon
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/effects1.shtml
One megaton is equivalent to 4.18 x 10^15 joules.
Total nuclear weapons in world
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/ ... r_2009.pdf
Approximately 23,335 weapons with ~ 6400 MT (megatons) yield
The asteroid strike is more than 10x as powerful as all nuclear weapons combined, and yet life on Earth not only has survived such an event, but it has thrived since it happened. In fact, the Chicxulub asteroid that is thought to have precipitated the demise of the dinosaurs was much bigger than the theoretical asteroid above. It's impact energy has been estimated at 1.3x10^24 Joules at a minimum!
http://astrobiology.com/2014/03/assessm ... actor.html
We found that the kinetic energy of the impactor is in the range from 1.3e24 J to 5.8e25 J
So while a nuclear war would surely be devastating, there's simply no way it could result in the end of all life on Earth.
You forget 2 things:
1) the Asteroid strike wasn't what killed the dinosaurs. It was the massive dust cloud that cooled the planet.
2) It's not the nuclear blasts that do the most damage, it's the radioactive fallout that persists for thousands of years and spreads out around the planet.
I forgot nothing.

The size of the dust cloud is determined by the impact energy. Also the dinosaurs lived for millions of years after the impact. It didn't kill them off, it just put them into a downward spiral from which they never recovered.

Also, there may not be a dust cloud at all since there's a 75% chance that the asteroid strike would hit the ocean, rather than land, creating a steam cloud, though that would also cool the planet.

Also, radiation isn't as deadly to most life as you think. Right around the detonation zones, the radiation would be higher, but farther away the radiation would be less. It would give you cancer and you'd die young, but you'd probably live long enough to have kids anyway. Short lived animals might not even notice a difference. Look at how wildlife is thriving in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, for instance.

Nuclear war would be terrible, but it wouldn't literally be the end of the world. Let's not be hyperbolic about it.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Marlene »

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:11 pm
Marlene wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:38 pm
Right, and I'm asking why you think that.
Why the catastrophic end of everything alive is bad?
Or why the catastrophic destructive vaporization of the planet and the entire solar system is bad, including all life?

I dunno. Seems kinda self-evident to me that it's a Bad Thing.
Not why it's bad, but why you think nothing could be worse.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Marlene »

To be completely clear, I think fewer deaths with greater suffering would be worse.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by K9s »

Since this is under the topic Emergency Management, I would say that typical emergency preparedness advice still applies. You can only control what you can control.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by YankeeTarheel »

Marlene wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:27 am
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:11 pm
Marlene wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:38 pm
Right, and I'm asking why you think that.
Why the catastrophic end of everything alive is bad?
Or why the catastrophic destructive vaporization of the planet and the entire solar system is bad, including all life?

I dunno. Seems kinda self-evident to me that it's a Bad Thing.
Not why it's bad, but why you think nothing could be worse.
OK. Have a nice day.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Bardo »

Eris wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:20 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:09 pm
Eris wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:54 pm
At the risk of being pedantic, a full scale nuclear war using every weapon possessed by every nation would not be sufficient to eradicate all life on Earth. Not by a long shot. Consider these numbers:

Energy of a large asteroid strike
https://www.real-world-physics-problems ... mpact.html
For example, consider an asteroid that is one kilometer in diameter and weighs 1.4 billion tonnes (M = 1.4×1012 kilograms), and is traveling at 20 kilometers per second (V = 20,000 m/s). The kinetic energy would be equal to (1/2)×1.4×10^12×(20,000)2 = 2.8×10^20 Joules.
Energy of a nuclear weapon
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/effects1.shtml
One megaton is equivalent to 4.18 x 10^15 joules.
Total nuclear weapons in world
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/ ... r_2009.pdf
Approximately 23,335 weapons with ~ 6400 MT (megatons) yield
The asteroid strike is more than 10x as powerful as all nuclear weapons combined, and yet life on Earth not only has survived such an event, but it has thrived since it happened. In fact, the Chicxulub asteroid that is thought to have precipitated the demise of the dinosaurs was much bigger than the theoretical asteroid above. It's impact energy has been estimated at 1.3x10^24 Joules at a minimum!
http://astrobiology.com/2014/03/assessm ... actor.html
We found that the kinetic energy of the impactor is in the range from 1.3e24 J to 5.8e25 J
So while a nuclear war would surely be devastating, there's simply no way it could result in the end of all life on Earth.
You forget 2 things:
1) the Asteroid strike wasn't what killed the dinosaurs. It was the massive dust cloud that cooled the planet.
2) It's not the nuclear blasts that do the most damage, it's the radioactive fallout that persists for thousands of years and spreads out around the planet.
I forgot nothing.

The size of the dust cloud is determined by the impact energy. Also the dinosaurs lived for millions of years after the impact. It didn't kill them off, it just put them into a downward spiral from which they never recovered.

Also, there may not be a dust cloud at all since there's a 75% chance that the asteroid strike would hit the ocean, rather than land, creating a steam cloud, though that would also cool the planet.

Also, radiation isn't as deadly to most life as you think. Right around the detonation zones, the radiation would be higher, but farther away the radiation would be less. It would give you cancer and you'd die young, but you'd probably live long enough to have kids anyway. Short lived animals might not even notice a difference. Look at how wildlife is thriving in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, for instance.

Nuclear war would be terrible, but it wouldn't literally be the end of the world. Let's not be hyperbolic about it.
Agreed. Look at chernobyl. Animals thrive in the exclusion zone. The guys cleaning the graphite on the roof were exposed to 12,000 sieverts 30 seconds at a time. Radiation effect is distance / exposure.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Bacchus »

While animals have made a terrific comeback, the jury is out on their genetic health. Living with heightened radiation is not without consequences.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by AndyH »

I'll toss this in.

https://player.vimeo.com/video/22791307 ... lor=b7effd
(Sorry...the vimeo player embed tags don't work.)

https://crimethinc.com/videos/endciv
Examines our culture’s addiction to systematic violence and environmental exploitation, and probes the resulting epidemic of poisoned landscapes and shell-shocked nations. Based in part on Endgame, the best-selling book by Derrick Jensen, END:CIV asks: “If your homeland was invaded by aliens who cut down the forests, poisoned the water and air, and contaminated the food supply, would you resist?”

The causes underlying the collapse of civilizations are usually traced to overuse of resources. As we write this, the world is reeling from economic chaos, peak oil, climate change, environmental degradation, and political turmoil. Every day, the headlines re-hash stories of scandal and betrayal of the public trust. We don’t have to make outraged demands for the end of the current global system—it seems to be coming apart already.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by lurker »

i am sometimes struck by two contrasting visions, one the star trek version of future earth, the other the blade-runner version. one is bright and clean no hunger, war or disease in naturalistic settings (i suppose if we gave up war we could afford all that.), the other dark and dirty, urban , polluted, most people living hand to mouth in near-poverty. the latter strikes me as the outcome of our current path, while the former (correct me about the ST lore) is the result of humanity's rejection of where that path was leading. is there a dark side to the ST view that they're not showing us? is there an upside to the bladerunner vision to anyone other than the top .5%?

speaking in shoddy memes, it's as if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/They_Live

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by VodoundaVinci »

I think the worst that can/will happen is that we'll continue to build/allow a Capitalistic based Oligarchy to run the show until we have to steal from our neighbors or a violent Revolution become inevitable. There are not going to be more jobs going forward so the "if you don't work you don't eat, can't get healthcare/afford healthcare" ethic of America will eventually fail when the people who are still advocating this mindset and ethic don't have a job and freak out. The Billy Bobs I work with consider anyone not working (in a scenario that has vanished in this century...)as a justification to starve them or deny them a human existence.

Arbeit Macht Frei is alive and well and growing in the US as viable jobs that pay a living wage to sustain this ethic disappear daily, never to return.

I think the worst that can happen will likely be Man Made as we don't seem to be able to change or adapt very well anymore mentally, physically, or spiritually. We don;t seem to be understanding that we are all in this together. I worry more about riots and violent revolution than I do about anything else except maybe a rampant virus that wipes out maybe 2/3rds of us before we can get it under control.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by K9s »

lurker wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:30 am
i am sometimes struck by two contrasting visions, one the star trek version of future earth, the other the blade-runner version. one is bright and clean no hunger, war or disease in naturalistic settings (i suppose if we gave up war we could afford all that.), the other dark and dirty, urban , polluted, most people living hand to mouth in near-poverty. the latter strikes me as the outcome of our current path, while the former (correct me about the ST lore) is the result of humanity's rejection of where that path was leading. is there a dark side to the ST view that they're not showing us? is there an upside to the bladerunner vision to anyone other than the top .5%?

speaking in shoddy memes, it's as if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/They_Live
Good sci-fi analogy!

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by koolaidblue »

I think it's inevietable that sooner or later there will be a major electrical grid outage event that will last a long time.

When that happens things will be quite challenging.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by K9s »

koolaidblue wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:24 pm
I think it's inevietable that sooner or later there will be a major electrical grid outage event that will last a long time.

When that happens things will be quite challenging.
Depends on the adoption of solar panels and renewables. One argument is that house/building/farm solar panels and other renewables could provide house/building power that helps power industries. Decentralized grids are the next wave - even the fossil fuel industry can't continue to stop that wave.

Places that are hit by natural disasters (looking at you, Florida) might consider easily deployed renewables to provide power.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Bardo »

I was gonna say....you must not have any experience or know many people with solar.

You would be amazed what 400-500w and a small lithium bank or 400 amps conventional FLA can do....fridges, lights, fans, laptops, TV all very easy and for about $1k.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Bisbee »

ET... phone home.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by HuckleberryFun »

So many to choose from. How about aliens invade exterminating all humans and animals to remake the planet for themselves? No Sigourney Weaver to kick some alien ass would just be depressing.
I can think of even worse, but I don’t want to be a downer...
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by koolaidblue »

GOPerfect wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:18 am
I believe that our enemies with hit us with a nasty little nuke that will take out our power grids. Life as we know it will end. Maybe the US needs a reset?
At this point I think it would be preferable :ninja:

But my understanding is that if an EMP was detonated or earth was hit by a massive CME (like the Carrington event) it would also fry off grid solar systems and anything with circuits/semi conductors within line of sight.

The idea of localised solar off grid sounds great for 99% of the time but if one of the above events occurr that would also be lost.


Hmm... Its a tricky situation that I worry about. I can only imagine how people would (or wouldn't) behave in something like that.

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