A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

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highdesert
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#176 Post by highdesert » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:43 am

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:22 am
They keep talking about how Gil Cisneros beat Young Kim in CA39 and how Young Kim would have been the first Korean-American in the House. That is not true. She would have been the first Korean-American WOMAN in the House! ( probably the 1st Republican, too.)

Yet here in New Jersey, in the highly contentious race to oust Tom MacArthur, that reactionary asshole who led the fight to kill Obamacare (remember the "party" the House GOP had with the Orange shit-stain, before the late Sen. McCain turned his thumb down on them?), Andy Kim, also a Korean-American, won. Kim is not the first Korean-American in the House, but the first Dem since 1999. It was a close, but glorious win over overtly racist ads by MacArthur, claiming Kim, who was born in the district to immigrants, "isn't one of us!" ie, somehow, not 'Murcan enough.

Like Orange County, CA, NJ swept all but one Republican from the House (Ocean County is VERY conservative). PA, where gerrymandering had given Rethugs 13 of 18 seats despite there being more Dems in the state, after court-mandated non-partisan re-districting, now has 9 and 9! Next, they have to that in NC, GA, and, of course, Texas.

What looked like a fizzling Blue Wave has, at least in the House, turned into a slow-moving Tsunami after all, well outpacing the 2010 Tea Party "shellacking". But the Orange Shit-Stain never admits defeat, he just rages and blames other people.
You're right, it's been very slow moving for the Dems but 38 seats is good, wish they did as well in the Senate. Reps picked up ND, IN, MO and FL senate seats - I'll be interested in reading critiques on what happened with Bill Nelson's campaign.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#177 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:10 am

At BEST, Republicans gained 2 seats overall, assuming Scott's 8 years of purging Dem voters prevails over Nelson. Remember, Dems flipped Arizona and Nevada.

And Cindy Hyde-Smith has given an ENORMOUS boost of energy to Mike Espy's campaign in the run-off with her blatant White Supremacy advocacy of both lynching and voter suppression.
But it's Mississippi, not Alabama, and it's hard to know if Espy can pull it off.

IF somehow, Nelson emerges on top (and, no, I'm not counting on it. Scott's a total cheat like Trump, only far smarter) and Espy pulls a Doug Jones, the GOP will have gained ZERO seats. Even if not, it's still a disappointing win for them. As Bill Mahrer puts it, California with 40 million people has 2 senators, and the Dakotas, with maybe a million or so together, have 4! Thus, Democrats got 46 million votes and Rethugs 33 million for the Senate--and the Rethugs gained! Stupid, fucked-up system, an archaic 18th Century holdover.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#178 Post by highdesert » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:42 am

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:10 am
At BEST, Republicans gained 2 seats overall, assuming Scott's 8 years of purging Dem voters prevails over Nelson. Remember, Dems flipped Arizona and Nevada.

And Cindy Hyde-Smith has given an ENORMOUS boost of energy to Mike Espy's campaign in the run-off with her blatant White Supremacy advocacy of both lynching and voter suppression.
But it's Mississippi, not Alabama, and it's hard to know if Espy can pull it off.

IF somehow, Nelson emerges on top (and, no, I'm not counting on it. Scott's a total cheat like Trump, only far smarter) and Espy pulls a Doug Jones, the GOP will have gained ZERO seats. Even if not, it's still a disappointing win for them. As Bill Mahrer puts it, California with 40 million people has 2 senators, and the Dakotas, with maybe a million or so together, have 4! Thus, Democrats got 46 million votes and Rethugs 33 million for the Senate--and the Rethugs gained! Stupid, fucked-up system, an archaic 18th Century holdover.
At this point it sounds like the DNC and DSCC have both given up on Nelson. It may just boil down to the reality that old people vote and there are plenty of them in FL and younger and minority voters don't. Same problem that Espy will have in MS.

A group of men sat down and through compromises created our presidential system of government, the document they created is considered by many to be "divinely inspired" and the "founding fathers" themselves have been historically canonized by many. They created a conservative system of government that doesn't like change, was never tested and is very hard to amend. Compare that to a parliamentary system which evolved over centuries and can be changed easier. The easiest and quickest way to balance the senate is to create more states as we've discussed - Puerto Rico, Guam, DC, NYC and maybe even the US Virgin Islands. We could also try to amend the Constitution so that the senate would also be based on population but that's much harder to do.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#179 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:04 am

highdesert wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:42 am
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:10 am
At BEST, Republicans gained 2 seats overall, assuming Scott's 8 years of purging Dem voters prevails over Nelson. Remember, Dems flipped Arizona and Nevada.

And Cindy Hyde-Smith has given an ENORMOUS boost of energy to Mike Espy's campaign in the run-off with her blatant White Supremacy advocacy of both lynching and voter suppression.
But it's Mississippi, not Alabama, and it's hard to know if Espy can pull it off.

IF somehow, Nelson emerges on top (and, no, I'm not counting on it. Scott's a total cheat like Trump, only far smarter) and Espy pulls a Doug Jones, the GOP will have gained ZERO seats. Even if not, it's still a disappointing win for them. As Bill Mahrer puts it, California with 40 million people has 2 senators, and the Dakotas, with maybe a million or so together, have 4! Thus, Democrats got 46 million votes and Rethugs 33 million for the Senate--and the Rethugs gained! Stupid, fucked-up system, an archaic 18th Century holdover.
At this point it sounds like the DNC and DSCC have both given up on Nelson. It may just boil down to the reality that old people vote and there are plenty of them in FL and younger and minority voters don't. Same problem that Espy will have in MS.

A group of men sat down and through compromises created our presidential system of government, the document they created is considered by many to be "divinely inspired" and the "founding fathers" themselves have been historically canonized by many. They created a conservative system of government that doesn't like change, was never tested and is very hard to amend. Compare that to a parliamentary system which evolved over centuries and can be changed easier. The easiest and quickest way to balance the senate is to create more states as we've discussed - Puerto Rico, Guam, DC, NYC and maybe even the US Virgin Islands. We could also try to amend the Constitution so that the senate would also be based on population but that's much harder to do.
Yup. 26 states have less than 18% of the people, but 52% of the Senate. 10 states have 58% of the people, but only 20% of the Senate.

Amending the Constitution requires 3/4 of the states to ratify it. That means the 13 smallest states can block ANY change to the Constitution that more fairly distributes Senators. As long as the Senate is controlled by Rethugs, there's no way PR, DC, NYC or the USVI will become states because pretty much ALL of them will have Dem Senators.

Really, the first step is the pledge of a number of states to give their EVs to the winner of the popular vote winner, but only will be in force when they reach the magic number of 270. Sadly, it probably won't happen in time for 2020, because I expect IF Trump wins, he'll yet again lose the popular vote.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#180 Post by highdesert » Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:04 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:04 am
highdesert wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:42 am
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:10 am
At BEST, Republicans gained 2 seats overall, assuming Scott's 8 years of purging Dem voters prevails over Nelson. Remember, Dems flipped Arizona and Nevada.

And Cindy Hyde-Smith has given an ENORMOUS boost of energy to Mike Espy's campaign in the run-off with her blatant White Supremacy advocacy of both lynching and voter suppression.
But it's Mississippi, not Alabama, and it's hard to know if Espy can pull it off.

IF somehow, Nelson emerges on top (and, no, I'm not counting on it. Scott's a total cheat like Trump, only far smarter) and Espy pulls a Doug Jones, the GOP will have gained ZERO seats. Even if not, it's still a disappointing win for them. As Bill Mahrer puts it, California with 40 million people has 2 senators, and the Dakotas, with maybe a million or so together, have 4! Thus, Democrats got 46 million votes and Rethugs 33 million for the Senate--and the Rethugs gained! Stupid, fucked-up system, an archaic 18th Century holdover.
At this point it sounds like the DNC and DSCC have both given up on Nelson. It may just boil down to the reality that old people vote and there are plenty of them in FL and younger and minority voters don't. Same problem that Espy will have in MS.

A group of men sat down and through compromises created our presidential system of government, the document they created is considered by many to be "divinely inspired" and the "founding fathers" themselves have been historically canonized by many. They created a conservative system of government that doesn't like change, was never tested and is very hard to amend. Compare that to a parliamentary system which evolved over centuries and can be changed easier. The easiest and quickest way to balance the senate is to create more states as we've discussed - Puerto Rico, Guam, DC, NYC and maybe even the US Virgin Islands. We could also try to amend the Constitution so that the senate would also be based on population but that's much harder to do.
Yup. 26 states have less than 18% of the people, but 52% of the Senate. 10 states have 58% of the people, but only 20% of the Senate.

Amending the Constitution requires 3/4 of the states to ratify it. That means the 13 smallest states can block ANY change to the Constitution that more fairly distributes Senators. As long as the Senate is controlled by Rethugs, there's no way PR, DC, NYC or the USVI will become states because pretty much ALL of them will have Dem Senators.

Really, the first step is the pledge of a number of states to give their EVs to the winner of the popular vote winner, but only will be in force when they reach the magic number of 270. Sadly, it probably won't happen in time for 2020, because I expect IF Trump wins, he'll yet again lose the popular vote.
Now is not the time to try to get a bill through congress to admit more states to the union, it has to wait until there is a Democratic congress and president. But it's time to start work to generate support in those entities for statehood. Trying to get pledges for EV votes is more difficult, most governors and state legislatures are in Republican hands and they can see the handwriting on the walls from 2000 and 2016 that Democrats can pump up the popular vote in blue states and they'd paint themselves in a corner by legislating it. Agreed, nothing will happy by 2020 and hopefully Democrats provide a clear alternative to Trump.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#181 Post by TrueTexan » Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:09 pm

The problems in our elections are caused by a number of factors but the biggest two are caused by SCOTUS rulings. One was the gutting of the voting act and two was the citizen united. Even if the voting rights act had not been gutted by the supremes The current administration would have done so just like DeVos gutting title IX regs on sexual assault. This election has seen voter suppression and voters being denied the right to vote by what at one time would have been illegal acts. The Reptilians will do what ever it takes to stay in power as witnessed by the acts in Florida and Georgia. had tase elections been run properly like those in Orange County California, I think the result would have been more like California and not like Jim Crow Old South.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#182 Post by highdesert » Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:18 am

Democrats are set to pull off the largest midterm elections victory in history, according to a breakdown of the popular vote in races for the House of Representatives.

The party leads the Republicans by more than 8.9 million votes across the US, raw data compiled by the Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan political analysis website. Previously, the largest margin of victory was 8.7 million, which came in the 1974 midterm elections after the Watergate scandal and Richard Nixon’s resignation. Only one House result remains undeclared. Democrats trail by fewer than 500 votes in California's 23rd congressional district, where there are 15,000 votes left to be counted.

It means the party is on the brink of flipping 40 seats in the House, reaffirming the emerging assessment that this month’s midterms amounted to a ”blue wave”. Utah’s Mia Love became the latest Republican incumbent to fall as Ben McAdams, the Democratic mayor of Salt Lake County, defeated her by fewer than 700 votes in a knife-edge race for the state's fourth congressional district.

She had been billed as one her party's stars when she became its first black congresswoman in 2014. As of Thursday, Democratic candidates had polled 59,351,147 votes in House seats across the country in the 2018 midterms, compared to Republicans’ 50,438,143, according to the Cook Political Report. Democrats are on course for more than 60.5 million ballots in total, the closest an opposition party has come in midterm elections to matching the president’s popular vote two years earlier.

Turnout across the country the highest since 1914, with Mr Trump’s divisive presidency and rancorous debates over immigration, healthcare and taxes thought to have driven voters to the ballot box. At least 49.2 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, the United States Elections Project estimates, compared to 36.4 per cent in 2014.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 6116.html

Two caveats to this story, first there were fewer people in the US in 1974 and as for 2020 if the high voter turnout is just in blue states it will be 2016 all over again, where Democrats couldn't capture the Electoral College but won the popular vote.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/def ... 0Final.pdf
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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