A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#101 Post by highdesert » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:22 pm

K9s wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:04 pm
I wanted to take the day off 11/7 so I could stay up late and watch returns. Oh, well. I guess I will find out that next morning.
It might not be resolved overnight, depending on GA law it could require a recount. It's good to see GA in play for a change.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#102 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:02 pm

I think it will actually become a runoff in GA (that would be bad). If the other two candidates get a few votes and no one wins with 50%+1 vote, it goes to a runoff. The libertarian is pulling a couple of points from the total and no one knows how that changes things.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#103 Post by GeorgiaRN » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:59 pm

K9s wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:02 pm
I think it will actually become a runoff in GA (that would be bad). If the other two candidates get a few votes and no one wins with 50%+1 vote, it goes to a runoff. The libertarian is pulling a couple of points from the total and no one knows how that changes things.
Historically Libertarian polling translates into Republican votes in GA. Couple that with polling more skewed toward Democrats and you have the AJC writing articles about a horse race. I dont see Stacey Abrams winning, but I do see her as a better player than Jason Carter. Admittedly, this has been the nastiest Governor's race I have seen in my lifetime.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#104 Post by K9s » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:33 am

GeorgiaRN wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:59 pm
K9s wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:02 pm
I think it will actually become a runoff in GA (that would be bad). If the other two candidates get a few votes and no one wins with 50%+1 vote, it goes to a runoff. The libertarian is pulling a couple of points from the total and no one knows how that changes things.
Historically Libertarian polling translates into Republican votes in GA. Couple that with polling more skewed toward Democrats and you have the AJC writing articles about a horse race. I dont see Stacey Abrams winning, but I do see her as a better player than Jason Carter. Admittedly, this has been the nastiest Governor's race I have seen in my lifetime.
Yes, I fear you are correct. This is still Georgia.

However, this is the first time a Dem spoke the truth about GA voters. No way could she "win over" the current electorate. She had to register new voters and get out the vote. She might win because she is running the only way a Dem could win. Worst case scenario: She helps some local Dems win local offices.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#105 Post by YankeeTarheel » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:56 am

Kemp lied in the debate. Also said if there's a recount he won't recuse himself. When he said the Obama admin "approved" the Georgia plan in 2010, he left out the CRITICAL detail that Georgia agreed NOT to cancel registrations for minor, obvious typos. And yet he's used EXACTLY that to cancel hundreds of thousands of registrations.
So Georgia voters, especially minority voters, need to fight back by GOING to the polls, bringing picture ID and every other piece of identification they can. It's not fair, it's not right, it's not legal to make them do that, but the only way to stop it is to elect Democrats.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#106 Post by CDFingers » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:23 am

The press is not being helpful. They should publicize every lie with its debunk. But this admin wants consolidation of ownership, so they comply and don't show him to be the slime rat he is--along with every one of the other mindless wannabe fascists.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#107 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:32 am

All the polls are showing it's tied except the ones from Gain-Hart-Yang which have a Democratic lean and show Abrams ahead. Turnout on election day along with early voting are critical. Have plenty of trained observers out watching the polling officials and at counting locations. And line up the lawyers on Abrams side all over the state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... r/georgia/
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#108 Post by K9s » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:28 pm

Kemp lies? That is like saying DeSantis and the other Trumpians lie. It is just disgusting. This has to stop. No more white nationalists, no more threats, no more lies.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#109 Post by featureless » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:18 pm

Welp. Filled out my ballot. Couldn't bring myself to vote for either turd for CA governor. Or for Feinstein. I've never not voted for her. Frustrated. Hope you all have better luck.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#110 Post by YankeeTarheel » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:30 pm

Mailed my wife's mail-in ballot since she has to travel on E-day. NJ only has same-day and mail-in. But there's one nice twist--if you get a mail-in ballot you'll vote by mail in every election till you send them a letter saying "Stop". I just vote on E-day.

I'm, frankly, scared shitless of a repeat of 2016, but hopeful the GIANT turnout numbers mean we'll at least take back the House. Unfortunately, unless we get a HUGE House influx with lots and lots of new Reps, Nancy Pelosi will AGAIN win in the Caucus and become Speaker, and waste time and good will focusing on gun control, rather than protecting Mueller and investigating Trump and his gang.

I DREAM about getting 290-291 seats--which means treasonous shits like Steve King and Devin Nunes and Steve King can be tossed out (2/3 majority needed to expel a member). But that won't happen.

Despite Schumer cutting Heidi Heitkamp's lifeline, I'm hoping the Indian Reservations can get enough folks with "Street Addresses" to overcome the purge and save her seat. Schumer, Pelosi, and Tom Perez show again and again and again why they should NOT be leading the Democratic Party.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#111 Post by K9s » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:52 pm

Democrats are incredibly far behind in state legislatures and governors and, by extension, judges. Any movement forward is helpful. It is going to take two big blue waves to have any hope of changing gerrymandered districts and voter suppression for the 2020-2030 decade. Absent that, Republicans will maintain and strengthen their stranglehold on states and federal offices and courts. Most of the country doesn't have the Blue State problem of too many Dems to vote for. Count your blessings, Blue Staters.

I, too, dream of a Blue Tsunami. Virginia and Alabama gave me hope. I don't want that 2016 feeling again.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#112 Post by Wino » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:50 am

Our local early voting is surpassing 2016. 106K first three days. I'm hopeful.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#113 Post by highdesert » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:51 am

A federal court on Wednesday blocked Georgia from throwing out absentee ballots and applications because of signature mismatches, a decision heralded by voting rights proponents 13 days before midterm elections.

While acknowledging that the state has a strong interest in election integrity, District Judge Leigh Martin May issued a temporary restraining order that allows voters to contest the state's initial determination and confirm their identity.

A state law allows election officials to reject absentee ballots if they see a signature mismatch in the voter’s paperwork. While it doesn't happen often, voters have no way to contest the decision. Now they will be issued provisional ballots that can be checked after Election Day.

"The court does not understand how assuring that all eligible voters are permitted to vote undermines integrity of the election process," May said. "To the contrary, it strengthens it."

"Permitting an absentee voter to resolve an alleged signature discrepancy ... has the very tangible benefit of avoiding disenfranchisement," said the judge, a nominee of President Barack Obama. May gave lawyers until noon Thursday to comment on whether the language in her order is “confusing or will be unworkable.”

Her decision was applauded by Sophia Lakin, an American Civil Liberties Union attorney.

“This ruling protects the people of Georgia from those who seek to undermine their right to vote," Lakin said. "It’s a huge victory, especially with the midterms just days away."

Candice Broce, spokeswoman for the Georgia secretary of state’s office, declined to comment and referred all questions to the attorney general’s office.Georgia has been a high priority among voting rights lawyers because the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Brian Kemp, is the current secretary of state responsible for election administration.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 753415002/
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#114 Post by CDFingers » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:11 am

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#115 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:29 am

Wino wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:50 am
Our local early voting is surpassing 2016. 106K first three days. I'm hopeful.
Crazy high midterm numbers in a lot of states. Here, too. Hours long lines in most areas (thanks to poll closings). No one has any real clue what the voters are doing because there are so many new/unlikely voters. I would feel better about that if I knew that unlikely voters elected Trump. Anything could happen.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#116 Post by eelj » Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:34 pm

I just had a phone conversation with a member of the DFL. Didn't recognize his voice from past meetings, a very distinct British accent. He wanted me to go door knocking in a city that I used to live in north of me about the election. I lied and told him both my wife and I had prior commitments. He kept pressing and finally I unloaded on him after he said it's such a close race.

It shouldn't be close at all, never used to be but since the wasserman schultz dnc era the DFL was pressured into adopting the full dlc third way agenda. I let him know that if the DFL does not score big Nov 6th that I will be attending Democratic socialist meetings and the Independence party meetings in the future. That didn't sit well with him and he let me know how worried he was about the amount of money that the billionaires are sinking into staubers run for congress. My response was what about the democrat billionaires who are they supporting? No response. I then pointed out the Millenials that were shit on last April by metro area DFLers who can't vote up here at our convention are going to vote for Skip Sandman of the Independence party, I know they don't support the DFL because at our meetings My wife and I who are in our mid 60s are 2 of the youngest people there.

Sorry but this is a rant.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#117 Post by featureless » Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:45 pm

Eelj, appropriate rant is appropriate!

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#118 Post by highdesert » Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:57 pm

Early voting for the midterm elections has begun in states across the country, and enthusiasm — and voter turnout — both appear to be high, with hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots arriving in Florida and voters lining up around the block in Texas. Turnout has surged among Republicans, Democrats and independents, according to poll data. As of Thursday morning, nearly 11 million people had voted early, according to data compiled by Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who studies elections. “If these patterns persist, we could see a turnout rate at least equaling the turnout rate in 1966, which was 48 percent, and if we beat that then you have to go all the way back to 1914, when the turnout rate was 51 percent,” he said. “We could be looking at a turnout rate that virtually no one has ever experienced.”

Publicly available data on early voting suggests more likely Republican voters than likely Democrats have so far cast their ballots, but it is too early to draw any firm conclusions. Here is a guide to how early voting works and why the information we see now may not resemble the final result after Election Day. Early voting works differently in each state, but it generally take two forms: in-person and by mail. Generally speaking, mail-in votes tend to skew Republican, in part because mail-in voting is popular with older voters. Some states make it easy for older people to vote by mail but harder for younger people to do so: In Michigan, for example, anyone over 60 can get an absentee ballot. In-person early votes tend to favor Democrats. Early voting figures are gathered from state and local election authorities, who keep a record of who has voted. That data can be analyzed using computer models or publicly available information — like age, race or party registration — to make an informed guess about how someone voted. But any analysis of early voting figures is missing the crucial evidence, because the available data does not include how a person actually voted. And it is important to keep in mind that not everyone who is a registered Democrat, say, always votes for Democratic candidates.

That’s a tricky question, in part because who you voted for is not public information, but also because the snapshot of early voting results on any specific day does not necessarily represent what the final result will be. Whoever is in the lead now may not be the party that actually wins. Right now, Republican-seeming voters have cast more ballots than Democratic-seeming voters, but that’s largely because mail-in ballots are sent to voters weeks before Election Day (to give them time to cast a vote and mail it in.) That means when early voting first opens, mail-in ballots are usually the first votes to be counted. “The ebb and flow of the election cycle generally is — and it’s not true in every single state but it is true in the national aggregate — Republicans tend to run up the score early with the absentee vote, Democrats come back strong with a pretty massive surge in in-person early voting, then on Election Day the vote tends to be closer to parity with a slight Republican lead,” said Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a data analytics firm that has collected early voting figures. “Republicans tend to have to play catch up on Election Day.”

Age is also a factor, Mr. McDonald said. “As we get closer to Election Day, you see that younger people tend to vote later than older people,” he said. “So younger people will enter the electorate as we get into next week.” Early voting has become more popular in recent years, with more than 22 million people casting early votes during the 2016 election. And enthusiasm in the 2018 midterms is high. Voter turnout on Monday, the first day of early voting in Texas, was up 325 percent in Dallas County and 213 percent in Harris County, home to Houston, compared with the first day in 2014, according to figures provided by Texas Democrats. Early voting turnout appears to have jumped considerably since 2014. But Mr. McDonald cautioned against making year-to-year comparisons because so many variables can change in each state from election to election. “Even when we can look at prior data, the laws may have changed or the campaign strategies may have changed, so it may not reflect a true difference,” he said. “But my judgment looking at these numbers — and I’ve been doing this since 2008 — is that there is higher turnout.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/23/us/p ... terms.html
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#119 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:34 pm

eelj wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:34 pm
I just had a phone conversation with a member of the DFL. Didn't recognize his voice from past meetings, a very distinct British accent. He wanted me to go door knocking in a city that I used to live in north of me about the election. I lied and told him both my wife and I had prior commitments. He kept pressing and finally I unloaded on him after he said it's such a close race.

It shouldn't be close at all, never used to be but since the wasserman schultz dnc era the DFL was pressured into adopting the full dlc third way agenda. I let him know that if the DFL does not score big Nov 6th that I will be attending Democratic socialist meetings and the Independence party meetings in the future. That didn't sit well with him and he let me know how worried he was about the amount of money that the billionaires are sinking into staubers run for congress. My response was what about the democrat billionaires who are they supporting? No response. I then pointed out the Millenials that were shit on last April by metro area DFLers who can't vote up here at our convention are going to vote for Skip Sandman of the Independence party, I know they don't support the DFL because at our meetings My wife and I who are in our mid 60s are 2 of the youngest people there.

Sorry but this is a rant.
Good rant! It seems like few of us actually have candidates that are a decent choice. The DNC seems to mess things up. Glad they ignored all of us southerners until it was too late for them. If the DNC were in charge, the leading candidates would have been convinced to sit out the race. Dems are not "running to the left" down here. Progressives never had anyone to vote for.

Now we get to show the country what happens when the DNC ignores the Dems. The Gillums and Abrams of the world will get more votes than any DNC anointed candidate.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#120 Post by Bardo » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:57 pm

People, when mcconnell says he plans to gut medicare and SS if reps win thats your que to vote RED. hes handing you the death of republicanism. and in true DNC fashion you ignore it.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#121 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:31 pm

Bardo wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:57 pm
People, when mcconnell says he plans to gut medicare and SS if reps win thats your que to vote RED. hes handing you the death of republicanism. and in true DNC fashion you ignore it.
Vote RED? What is RED?

Republicanism died in 2016. I think that is generally accepted. It is fast becoming a (powerful) third party.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#122 Post by Jaywalker » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:16 pm

eelj wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:34 pm
I just had a phone conversation with a member of the DFL. Didn't recognize his voice from past meetings, a very distinct British accent. He wanted me to go door knocking in a city that I used to live in north of me about the election. I lied and told him both my wife and I had prior commitments. He kept pressing and finally I unloaded on him after he said it's such a close race.

It shouldn't be close at all, never used to be but since the wasserman schultz dnc era the DFL was pressured into adopting the full dlc third way agenda. I let him know that if the DFL does not score big Nov 6th that I will be attending Democratic socialist meetings and the Independence party meetings in the future. That didn't sit well with him and he let me know how worried he was about the amount of money that the billionaires are sinking into staubers run for congress. My response was what about the democrat billionaires who are they supporting? No response. I then pointed out the Millenials that were shit on last April by metro area DFLers who can't vote up here at our convention are going to vote for Skip Sandman of the Independence party, I know they don't support the DFL because at our meetings My wife and I who are in our mid 60s are 2 of the youngest people there.

Sorry but this is a rant.
Unfortunately, as a rant it doesn't do much for me since I don't understand much of it. For instance, who or what is "DFL?"

Is "staubers" a congressional candidate?

How were the millenials disadvantaged by DFL, and what was "last April?"
There are 10 kinds of people: those who understand binary and those who don't.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#123 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:14 pm

Jaywalker wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:16 pm
eelj wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:34 pm
I just had a phone conversation with a member of the DFL. Didn't recognize his voice from past meetings, a very distinct British accent. He wanted me to go door knocking in a city that I used to live in north of me about the election. I lied and told him both my wife and I had prior commitments. He kept pressing and finally I unloaded on him after he said it's such a close race.

It shouldn't be close at all, never used to be but since the wasserman schultz dnc era the DFL was pressured into adopting the full dlc third way agenda. I let him know that if the DFL does not score big Nov 6th that I will be attending Democratic socialist meetings and the Independence party meetings in the future. That didn't sit well with him and he let me know how worried he was about the amount of money that the billionaires are sinking into staubers run for congress. My response was what about the democrat billionaires who are they supporting? No response. I then pointed out the Millenials that were shit on last April by metro area DFLers who can't vote up here at our convention are going to vote for Skip Sandman of the Independence party, I know they don't support the DFL because at our meetings My wife and I who are in our mid 60s are 2 of the youngest people there.

Sorry but this is a rant.
Unfortunately, as a rant it doesn't do much for me since I don't understand much of it. For instance, who or what is "DFL?"

Is "staubers" a congressional candidate?

How were the millenials disadvantaged by DFL, and what was "last April?"
Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL)

Peter Allen Stauber is a Republican, former professional hockey player, and retired police lieutenant.

eelj can explain the rest. It seems that when Dems start to do well in any state, the often become corporatist tools and abandon the progressive base.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#124 Post by K9s » Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:18 pm

Dang! Voting numbers are historically high nearly everywhere! I worried that it would slow down after the first few days, but they were up 200% by last Thursday. Weekend lines were hours and hours long.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#125 Post by Eris » Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:27 pm

K9s wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:18 pm
Dang! Voting numbers are historically high nearly everywhere! I worried that it would slow down after the first few days, but they were up 200% by last Thursday. Weekend lines were hours and hours long.
Apparently the way to improve Americans voting apathy is to get us to hate each other. :sarcasm:
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