A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#76 Post by highdesert » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:57 pm

That's positive data from primaries, that supports the polling. Republicans have just accepted that they would win midterms, because Democrats didn't turn out for them. Trump and his mouth are their reason this midterm.

Nate Silver has a good analysis.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... the-house/
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#77 Post by K9s » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:48 am

Votes in Massachusetts tonight look like Dems have double the votes versus Reps. Not sure if that is normal.

Non-Republican voters need to turn out like crazy to overcome gerrymandering. Maybe it will happen.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#78 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:48 pm

And in FiveThirtyEight’s gubernatorial forecasts, which we (finally!) launched on Wednesday, the gubernatorial news is good for Democrats. They are projected to wind up with governorships in states representing about 60 percent of the U.S. population, compared with 40 percent for Republicans.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... /governor/
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#79 Post by HuckleberryFun » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:18 am

The governorships and statehouses are especially important what with the coming census based district redrawing ahead.
The Dems will gain, but the “wave” may or may not happen. It’s hard to tell because the polling data is not trustworthy.
Hoping for the best, but never underestimating the Democratic leadership’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#80 Post by highdesert » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:45 pm

HuckleberryFun wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:18 am
The governorships and statehouses are especially important what with the coming census based district redrawing ahead.
The Dems will gain, but the “wave” may or may not happen. It’s hard to tell because the polling data is not trustworthy.
Hoping for the best, but never underestimating the Democratic leadership’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Since early voting is taking place in probably all states, hope the DNC and state parties have a mechanism to track voters through reminder calls, e-mails and a get out the vote machine on election day. The generic poll still looks positive with the exception of Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP polls so the house looks winnable but the senate isn't in play. Reporters like to talk "blue waves" but it is hype and we'll only know for certain after it's over.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... ic-ballot/

More and more polls tumbling out, less and less undecideds as we get closer to November 6th. Polls have been wrong and people do lie to pollsters, but there are many polls by different organizations which helps.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... rms-header
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#81 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:56 pm

My guess is that the red states where Dems are left to fend for themselves will do well. You cannot rely on the DNC and should never leave it up to them. Ask Doug Jones about that.

Voters picked the candidate they wanted (not the DNC anointed candidate) and are supporting them financially. Florida is looking like a good example. Hopefully, Georgia will be another good example. Something had to change, and this might be the year.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#82 Post by highdesert » Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:30 am

Democratic hopes for a wave election that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans. Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose — and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber. The tightening, with just over two weeks left, reflects how President Trump’s rising approval rating and the polarizing fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh appear to be boosting the party’s candidates in a number of conservative and rural districts that have been considered up for grabs. But Democrats have retained their strength in key suburban areas, where polls show female voters furious with Trump are likely to help flip Republican-held seats.

“The past few weeks haven’t really diminished Democrats’ chances of a takeover by that much, but they’ve increased the chances of a small Democratic majority,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. He estimated Democrats have a 70 to 75 percent chance of winning the House. At stake is the fate of the Trump presidency — whether Democrats will gain the power to investigate his administration and thwart his agenda, or if emboldened Republicans will fulfill the president’s vision for the nation, from building a border wall to repeal of the Obama-era health-care law. Together, both parties have reserved about $150 million worth of airtime for TV and radio commercials between Tuesday and the Nov. 6 midterm elections, according to data obtained by The Washington Post, with most of the money coming from Democrats. Many are expected to be attack ads.

Underscoring the fast-changing political fortunes are the cold calculations by both parties in the final days. The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points. Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well. Democrats, meanwhile, are cutting funds in a GOP-held district in Nebraska and a Democratic-held district in northern Minnesota, two places Trump won. The latter represents one of the GOP’s best chances to flip a seat from blue to red. In other Trump districts, such as GOP Rep. Fred Upton’s seat in southwest Michigan, Democrats have been adding money.

To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats would target Trump and Kavanaugh, unleash mob rule and threaten cultural values. “Closing with a little fear,” said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, describing the GOP approach. Reed predicted that Republicans would keep their losses to 20 House seats, just under the 23 Democrats need to return to power. Republicans are favored to hold their majority in the Senate, which stands at 51-49. Consider a National Republican Congressional Committee ad in an open House seat across the southern border of Minnesota. The commercial seeks to link Democratic candidate Dan Feehan to former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and NFL players who kneel during the national anthem, billionaire Jewish investor and liberal donor George Soros and “left-wing mobs paid to riot in the streets.” “The left owns Feehan. He will never be for you,” the ad says of the Army veteran who did two tours of duty in Iraq and earned the Bronze Star for service.

One of the biggest targets of attack ads tying her to liberal leaders and protesters is Democrat Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot trying to unseat Republican Rep. Garland “Andy” Barr in a Kentucky district that stretches from Lexington, the state’s second-most populous city, to rural areas. Trump won there by 15 points in 2016 and campaigned for Barr this month. Polls show a tight race. McGrath said that while she understood the emotions during the Kavanaugh fight, some of the strident anti-Kavanaugh protests were “unhelpful.” She also expressed some frustration at Republicans associating her views with other Democrats who support her, but with whom she does not agree. “I just don’t think that that’s right or fair,” McGrath said. Stoking divisive culture wars could help the GOP hang onto battleground districts Trump won in 2016. But in many of the 25 districts the Republicans hold that Hillary Clinton carried, they face stiff head winds. In these heavily suburban areas, anger with Trump and the GOP is intense, particularly among women. Democrats are hammering Republicans over health care in an effort to expand their appeal across party lines.

Republicans face other obstacles, including strong Democratic fundraising and enthusiasm, as well as struggling top-of-ticket GOP contenders in some Midwestern states that could hurt candidates down the ballot. In a newly drawn Pennsylvania district in the suburbs of Philadelphia, where Clinton won by two percentage points, Democrat Scott Wallace, a wealthy philanthropist, said the contentious Kavanaugh fight has improved his chances of ousting first-term GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. “On the independent and Democratic side, and of course moderate Republicans, there is a sense of anger about how Dr. Ford was treated,” said Wallace, referring to Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when both were teenagers; Kavanaugh denied the allegations. “My observation is that anger is a stronger motivator than gratitude. So, I think by Election Day, you will see the Kavanaugh effect will produce more energy on our side.” A recent New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll showed Wallace leading Fitzpatrick. The Republican held an edge in surveys earlier in the year.

Health care has been a main focal point of Democratic ads, which cast Republicans who voted repeatedly to repeal the law as threats to protections for people with preexisting medical conditions. Democrats have also slammed Republicans who supported the sweeping tax bill, which hasn’t produced the political boost the GOP envisioned. “Consistently, the number one issue that I hear about from voters is health care,” said Rep. Katherine M. Clark (Mass.), recruitment vice chair for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Clark said she has been to six states in the last three weeks and Democratic energy is still higher than she’s ever seen in a midterm. Democrats worry about Hispanic voters in battleground House races. While Latinos tend to vote Democratic, concerns about whether campaigns have done enough to encourage strong turnout has weighed on party strategists and officials. Rep. Will Hurd (R-Tex.), a moderate on immigration whose district includes about 800 miles of the border and many Latino residents, has put himself in a better position than many other Republicans running in Clinton districts by distancing himself from Trump. “I feel confident that when the voters of TX-23 grade my paper on Election Day, I’ll get a passing grade,” he said in a statement to The Post.

The generic congressional ballot, one measure often used in public polls, shows Democrats in position to capture the majority. Voters are asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican, without names. Among registered voters, Democratic candidates led 53 percent to 42 percent, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted this month showed. Election forecasters and analysts estimate that Democrats need a six- to eight-point advantage to win a majority. But the same poll showed Trump’s approval rating, another indicator, had risen five points, to 43 percent, after tying a record low in August. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) who chaired the House GOP campaign arm during a difficult 2008 election cycle for Republicans, said there is a different sentiment among Republican incumbents now.

“They were resigned in ’08,” said Cole, who ventured the chances of holding the majority improved from one-in-three to one-in-two. “I think the mood is we have a real shot,” In a memo to donors, Corry Bliss, the head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), wrote that the map was moving in a good direction for Republicans, but Democrats had the financial advantage. He said his group had raised $10 million in two weeks, but that Democrats were outspending the GOP on TV in top races. Another worrisome factor for Republicans: their gubernatorial nominees in Illinois, Michigan and Kansas, who are trailing or in a tight race and therefore offering little in the way of coattails down ballot. Republicans are defending a dozen competitive or potentially competitive House seats in those states, according to the Cook Political Report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpos ... 5c3f313bfd
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#83 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:44 am

As long as Dems are scared, nervous, and paranoid that 2016 will bite them in the ass again, they should do well.

Complacency and Arrogance are the KILLERS of Dem victories again and again and again.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#84 Post by K9s » Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:33 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:44 am
As long as Dems are scared, nervous, and paranoid that 2016 will bite them in the ass again, they should do well.

Complacency and Arrogance are the KILLERS of Dem victories again and again and again.
Yup. It will be an interesting Nov 6. Also, I noticed that the ReTrumplicans are already planning to challenge key Dem victories in the courts (you know, criminal illegals and all that stuff). I expect that to happen and for some elections to be stolen. Who would have guessed? Maybe Merrick Garland and Al Gore?
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#85 Post by highdesert » Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:23 pm

According to Nate Silver at 538, Democrats are dominating in fundraising.
The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so bad for Republicans — that it’s hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modeling standpoint, we’re extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain.
Either way, we’re in somewhat uncharted territory here. For the most part, the various indicators we use in our House forecast tell a consistent story. The generic congressional ballot, district-by-district polling and the past electoral history of midterm years under unpopular presidents are all consistent with a Democratic edge of somewhere between 6 and 10 percentage points in the House popular vote, and with Democrats being reasonably solid but not overwhelming favorites to win a majority of seats. The fundraising data, on the other hand, points toward a massive Democratic landslide.

As a first approximation, the correct approach with data that looks like an outlier is to average it together with the other indicators — not to throw it out. (More often than you might think, the seeming “outlier” proves to be correct and it’s the other data that was off.) And that’s more or less what our model does. But the fundraising data contributes uncertainty to our forecast in a way that our top line probabilities may not capture well.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... our-model/

It's not over until it's over, I too hope that turnout is high.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#86 Post by K9s » Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:50 pm

Turnout will be crazy high for all sides (in competitive races, at least). Everyone involved is guessing or spinning (or even outright lying) right now. Lots of interesting local stories across the country. I would be thrilled to see a blue tsunami in the deep south, but I know it would be immediately challenged in courts with the help of the ReTrumplican feds. The "millions of illegals" rallying cry will be used no matter what happens.

So far, it has been entertaining. I hope it works out for the best - for all Americans.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#87 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:53 pm

K9s wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:33 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:44 am
As long as Dems are scared, nervous, and paranoid that 2016 will bite them in the ass again, they should do well.

Complacency and Arrogance are the KILLERS of Dem victories again and again and again.
Yup. It will be an interesting Nov 6. Also, I noticed that the ReTrumplicans are already planning to challenge key Dem victories in the courts (you know, criminal illegals and all that stuff). I expect that to happen and for some elections to be stolen. Who would have guessed? Maybe Merrick Garland and Al Gore?
That's because ReTrumplicans are clearly Stalinists--It doesn't matter who gets the most votes but rather who gets to count the votes.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#88 Post by highdesert » Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:11 pm

K9s wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:50 pm
Turnout will be crazy high for all sides (in competitive races, at least). Everyone involved is guessing or spinning (or even outright lying) right now. Lots of interesting local stories across the country. I would be thrilled to see a blue tsunami in the deep south, but I know it would be immediately challenged in courts with the help of the ReTrumplican feds. The "millions of illegals" rallying cry will be used no matter what happens.

So far, it has been entertaining. I hope it works out for the best - for all Americans.
I agree about it being entertaining and the lies, the long daggers are out. HRC had a big fund raising advantage over Trump in 2016 but he still won, money isn't every thing but it can be a huge advantage in the last days of a campaign with media buys and get out the vote machines. Immigrants and illegals will continue to be a rallying cry for the right, it generates fear to get their people to the polls.

A lot of early voting in GA, the governors race has to be one incentive.
A poll by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution this month showed a tight race for governor, with Kemp leading Abrams 47.7 percent to 46.3 percent, a statistically insignificant difference within the poll’s 2.8 percentage point margin of error.
https://politics.myajc.com/news/state-- ... ZiUwAZErJ/ Will minorities turn out this time, that's a concern because of voter suppression and gerrymandering. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/21/us/t ... terms.html
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#89 Post by K9s » Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:20 pm

Yeah, voter suppression isn't a surprise here. Everyone here knows you have to overwhelm Republicans by about 10% to win anything. Gerrymandering cuts into margins a lot. Voter suppression helps them a bit. Threats and propaganda (part of the voter suppression) and just plain corruption make it an uphill battle.

Honestly, I believe that if Roy Moore had won in Alabama, non-ReTrumplicans would have stayed home this midterm. That win made a huge difference in morale.

ReTrumplicans are simply running on "stop the radical Left" down here. Then they claim that Dems are only running against Trump (they aren't). They refuse debates and refuse to talk to any press except Faux News. They are all-in on white grievance and (implicitly) white supremacy. And they just lie and lie and lie. It is almost comical, except that the stakes feel a lot higher. Voter turnout is crazy high right now.

I don't think any of them saw this coming. They are already making plans to appeal elections in the courts. It will probably work, too. I assume the same thing would happen in Kansas if a Dem beat Kobach.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#90 Post by TrueTexan » Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:31 pm

Already Agent Orange is setting up a plan to discredit the elections. if the Dems take the House.

See topic

viewtopic.php?f=65&t=50318
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#91 Post by K9s » Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:50 pm

TrueTexan wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:31 pm
Already Agent Orange is setting up a plan to discredit the elections. if the Dems take the House.

See topic

viewtopic.php?f=65&t=50318
I assume it is the same story we have been hearing in Georgia. I'll check it out. Thanks!
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#92 Post by Bisbee » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:34 am

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#93 Post by TrueTexan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:58 pm

Hoping Texas at least goes purple and we get rid of Teddy so his wife can by their second home in Turnip Towers NYC. Also hoping we get rid of our AG that is under criminal indictment. Gave up on the Gov. and the idiot Lt. Gov races. Even though I will vote dem in them. Hope to see Georgia Gov. race go dem and put the Reptillian running on the unemployment list.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#94 Post by TrueTexan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:44 pm

I did my civic duty and voted. Had a women in line tell it was so nice to see so many people voting. I agreed, but then she said only if they are voting the Right Way. I almost told her that anytime a Citizen is voting, no matter who or what they are voting for or against that is the right way. But it was time for me to cast my ballot.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#95 Post by highdesert » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:17 pm

TrueTexan wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:44 pm
I did my civic duty and voted. Had a women in line tell it was so nice to see so many people voting. I agreed, but then she said only if they are voting the Right Way. I almost told her that anytime a Citizen is voting, no matter who or what they are voting for or against that is the right way. But it was time for me to cast my ballot.
One of the reasons that I don't vote at my local polling station on election day, the people at the polling station. Years ago when I lived in another county (very red area) I went to the polling station at a large church hall, there were four precincts located there and it was late in the day. The woman at the desk got my name and made a big deal about asking for a Democratic ballot, mine was the fourth Democratic ballot issued that day.

I think the only way we're going to increase voting participation here in CA is to go completely voting by mail. You can vote permanently by absentee ballot (early voting by mail), in the 2014 primary 69.4% of CA voters voted absentee. In the 2018 primary 67.7% of voters voted absentee so it's not a big transition. Even with postage it has to be cheaper voting by mail over polling stations where there is a minimum of 4 staff who are paid and supplemental staff and equipment and vehicles etc.
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#96 Post by K9s » Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:18 pm

highdesert wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:17 pm
TrueTexan wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:44 pm
I did my civic duty and voted. Had a women in line tell it was so nice to see so many people voting. I agreed, but then she said only if they are voting the Right Way. I almost told her that anytime a Citizen is voting, no matter who or what they are voting for or against that is the right way. But it was time for me to cast my ballot.
One of the reasons that I don't vote at my local polling station on election day, the people at the polling station. Years ago when I lived in another county (very red area) I went to the polling station at a large church hall, there were four precincts located there and it was late in the day. The woman at the desk got my name and made a big deal about asking for a Democratic ballot, mine was the fourth Democratic ballot issued that day.

I think the only way we're going to increase voting participation here in CA is to go completely voting by mail. You can vote permanently by absentee ballot (early voting by mail), in the 2014 primary 69.4% of CA voters voted absentee. In the 2018 primary 67.7% of voters voted absentee so it's not a big transition. Even with postage it has to be cheaper voting by mail over polling stations where there is a minimum of 4 staff who are paid and supplemental staff and equipment and vehicles etc.
Vote by mail can have its downsides (see "Georgia Voter Suppression"). It's strange how "certain" names on mailed ballots seem to be a reason for tossing the ballots.

Giving the option to vote by mail or in person would be the best idea (with same day voter registration).
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#97 Post by Wino » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:59 am

My daughter and I voted yesterday morning. Long line, took about an hour start to finish 11:30 to 12:30. Similar turnout/lines as in 2016 pres election. I gave poll electioneer my voter registration card, Drivers License, CHL (concealed handgun license) and Passport Card as ID (had I thought this through, would have brought my Passport, too), stating I wanted to be sure there was no doubt I was who I said I was - yet I still wonder whether my vote will be counted or not. According to news this AM Texas broke voting records for first day. Did note that lead electioneer was extremely surly compared to past elections. There were about 20+ electronic polling machines. The line when we exited was longer than when we went in. Locally 34,021 voted on first day. 1,378 in my precinct and fifth place overall. Unfortunately, large right wing precincts kicked our ass - does not bode well.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#98 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:56 am

Yeah, it was always going to be an uphill battle in Texas and rest of the south. Flipping state houses, senates, and governor offices is also important. Every little bit helps.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#99 Post by highdesert » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:04 pm

538 has three tossup states for governorships: NV, OH and GA. One benefit of time zones, some elections will be decided before the polls close at 8PM PST in CA, three hours after EST.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... or/#deluxe
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Re: A 2018 wave is building, but will it fizzle?

#100 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:04 pm

I wanted to take the day off 11/7 so I could stay up late and watch returns. Oh, well. I guess I will find out that next morning.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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