2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#1 Post by highdesert » Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:10 pm

A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).

And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.

So Democrats are up a lot. A lot a lot. But how might a lead this big manifest itself in 2018?

First, Democrats are probably favorites to win the House. Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House. And a 12 percentage point Democratic advantage in the national House vote come next November would likely be more than enough for the House to flip again. I’ve previously calculated that the Democrats need to win the national House vote by 5.5 to 8 points to win the House.

You can see in the chart below just how many Republican seats could potentially be in danger given the current climate. Let’s say only Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of more than 12 points in favor of Republicans are truly safe. (The idea being that Republicans would need that size of a cushion to withstand the Democrats’ 12-point edge on the generic congressional ballot.) For fun, let’s also look at how many seats have a Republican lean of less than or equal to +18 percentage points (as the CNN poll suggests are in play). Keep in mind that Democrats need to win 24 Republican-held seats to gain control of the House, assuming that Democrats don’t lose any of their own seats.

There are 58 Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of +12 points Republican or less. This includes representatives like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Dave Brat (who took out Eric Cantor in 2014). There are an astronomical 103 seats that have a partisan lean of +18 Republican or less. This expanded list includes the highest-ranking woman in the House, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and the longest-serving House member, Don Young.

Now, I’m not saying all or any of these particular Republicans will lose. Most incumbents win — even in wave elections. Indeed, incumbents tend to do better than the partisan lean of the district would suggest, though that effect has been getting smaller and is usually lessened in waves.

What I am saying, though, is that when the generic ballot is showing this large of a lead for one party, the playing field of competitive races also tends to be correspondingly huge. Consider the 2010 election, when Republicans won the national House vote by 7 percentage points. Heading into that election, there were 101 Democrat-held seats with a partisan lean of +7 Democratic or less. Republicans won 65 of them (or 64 percent).3

We’re still nearly a year away from the midterm elections, however. And voter preferences at this point can change dramatically by election day; the average difference between the congressional ballot at this point and the final result is about 9 percentage points. But most large shifts on the generic ballot from this point onward have occurred against the party that holds the White House. Once you take into account who holds the White House, the generic ballot at this point is usually predictive of the midterm House result.

Indeed, so far this year, Democrats have more than doubled their April generic ballot lead of 5 percentage points. The Democrats led by just 6.9 points when they lost the Georgia 6 special election. That indicates that the normal midterm trends are holding even in the age of President Trump.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... o-a-flood/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#2 Post by Dreamsinger » Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:50 am

highdesert wrote:
A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).

And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.

So Democrats are up a lot. A lot a lot. But how might a lead this big manifest itself in 2018?

First, Democrats are probably favorites to win the House. Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House. And a 12 percentage point Democratic advantage in the national House vote come next November would likely be more than enough for the House to flip again. I’ve previously calculated that the Democrats need to win the national House vote by 5.5 to 8 points to win the House.

You can see in the chart below just how many Republican seats could potentially be in danger given the current climate. Let’s say only Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of more than 12 points in favor of Republicans are truly safe. (The idea being that Republicans would need that size of a cushion to withstand the Democrats’ 12-point edge on the generic congressional ballot.) For fun, let’s also look at how many seats have a Republican lean of less than or equal to +18 percentage points (as the CNN poll suggests are in play). Keep in mind that Democrats need to win 24 Republican-held seats to gain control of the House, assuming that Democrats don’t lose any of their own seats.

There are 58 Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of +12 points Republican or less. This includes representatives like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Dave Brat (who took out Eric Cantor in 2014). There are an astronomical 103 seats that have a partisan lean of +18 Republican or less. This expanded list includes the highest-ranking woman in the House, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and the longest-serving House member, Don Young.

Now, I’m not saying all or any of these particular Republicans will lose. Most incumbents win — even in wave elections. Indeed, incumbents tend to do better than the partisan lean of the district would suggest, though that effect has been getting smaller and is usually lessened in waves.

What I am saying, though, is that when the generic ballot is showing this large of a lead for one party, the playing field of competitive races also tends to be correspondingly huge. Consider the 2010 election, when Republicans won the national House vote by 7 percentage points. Heading into that election, there were 101 Democrat-held seats with a partisan lean of +7 Democratic or less. Republicans won 65 of them (or 64 percent).3

We’re still nearly a year away from the midterm elections, however. And voter preferences at this point can change dramatically by election day; the average difference between the congressional ballot at this point and the final result is about 9 percentage points. But most large shifts on the generic ballot from this point onward have occurred against the party that holds the White House. Once you take into account who holds the White House, the generic ballot at this point is usually predictive of the midterm House result.

Indeed, so far this year, Democrats have more than doubled their April generic ballot lead of 5 percentage points. The Democrats led by just 6.9 points when they lost the Georgia 6 special election. That indicates that the normal midterm trends are holding even in the age of President Trump.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... o-a-flood/
35% of eligible Americans aren't registered, of the remaining 65% only a third of them vote. Non-voters tend to be more intelligent and liberally inclined. The polls fail to adjust for that.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#3 Post by SilasSoule » Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:16 am

This study disagrees on who is less likely to vote.

"They’re younger. Roughly a third (34%) of nonvoters are younger than 30 and most (70%) are under 50; among likely voters, just 10% are younger than 30 and only 39% are under 50.

They’re more racially and ethnically diverse. Fully 43% of those who are not likely to cast ballots Tuesday are Hispanic, African American or other racial and ethnic minorities, roughly double the percentage among likely voters (22%).

They’re less affluent and less educated. Nearly half of nonvoters (46%) have family incomes less than $30,000, compared with 19% of likely voters. Most nonvoters (54%) have not attended college; 72% of likely voters have completed at least some college."

http://www.people-press.org/2014/10/31/ ... nvoters-2/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#4 Post by richardw » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:31 am

The election is eleven months away. I put no stock in any poll taken this early.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#5 Post by atxgunguy » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:43 am

richardw wrote:The election is eleven months away. I put no stock in any poll taken this early.
After the 2016 election, I will never take stock in any poll.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#6 Post by Bang » Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:14 am

atxgunguy wrote:
richardw wrote:The election is eleven months away. I put no stock in any poll taken this early.
After the 2016 election, I will never take stock in any poll.
If you ever believed polls that told you Hillary would win, I have a bridge to sell you in Manhattan.
The only reason she beat Bernie was because she had the Democratic party rig the vote against him. She was never going to be president.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#7 Post by VodoundaVinci » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:42 am

I think a lot of the angst created by Trumps election is proof that "things" have changed. Politically, in terms of the Economy, Media, Information transfer, ....everything. The Old Rules and Measures (like polls) are not likely to be very accurate because the dynamic in America is changing unpredictably in ways we cannot imagine.

Using old rules and measures (like from say 2016) is not likely to be relative to what is really happening in America. The Establishment and The Oligarchy that controls it need to be run out of town on a rail but "Voting" them out of power is not gonna happen as Capitalism collapses and the vote/candidates are hand picked, promoted, and owned by the very people we need to get rid of.

Polls mean squat unless I took it...to me anyway. It's all just seeded information that has been carefully combed and released to further a rich mans/The Oligarchy's agenda. Why do we think poor folks don't bother to vote? I don't believe America will get fixed at the voting booth - The Game of Monopoly that is America has shaken itself down to the final round and the winner can't be brought down by playing "The Game" within the current rules. IMO.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#8 Post by AndyH » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:38 am

In other news, citizens of District 12 are happy that good, clean, coal is getting more respect in the capitol city. ;)
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#9 Post by ErikO » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:26 am

They are still the party that chose Truman over Wallace and continue to chase after power, money and glory. Perfect may be the enemy of the good but Joe Kennedy isn't even good...

And he is par for the course.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#10 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:18 am

Consider this and be depressed, be very depressed. In my district, NJ 11, where jelly-spine Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring rather than face his first REAL challenge ever, the anointed one by the Democratic PTB is Mikie Sherrill, who checks all the boxes, is "officially" designated the front-runner for the nomination, and is, as far as I can tell, just another would-be thrall who will "bravely" vote exactly as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer tell her to. The other candidates can't even get ink, but somehow, Mikie gets a NY Times front-page, above-the-fold feature. And she doesn't even live in NJ-11!

Yet at a public forum, she dodged MY question on the division in the party and where she stands on it, being that the DNC was late to the party in NJ, VA, and Alabama, and another tough questioner as well on the shut-down. "I'm always against shut-downs" she demurred. This is the best we can do? I don't care that she's ex-mil and female--those things only matter if she's going to stand for Progressive principles (which she claims) and not just be another ditto-stamp.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dcc ... gressives/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#11 Post by CDFingers » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:37 am

GOTV. Take no chances.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#12 Post by featureless » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:00 am

I have a feeling the dems will manage to fuck this up. Hope I'm wrong.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#13 Post by highdesert » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:38 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:Consider this and be depressed, be very depressed. In my district, NJ 11, where jelly-spine Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring rather than face his first REAL challenge ever, the anointed one by the Democratic PTB is Mikie Sherrill, who checks all the boxes, is "officially" designated the front-runner for the nomination, and is, as far as I can tell, just another would-be thrall who will "bravely" vote exactly as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer tell her to. The other candidates can't even get ink, but somehow, Mikie gets a NY Times front-page, above-the-fold feature. And she doesn't even live in NJ-11!

Yet at a public forum, she dodged MY question on the division in the party and where she stands on it, being that the DNC was late to the party in NJ, VA, and Alabama, and another tough questioner as well on the shut-down. "I'm always against shut-downs" she demurred. This is the best we can do? I don't care that she's ex-mil and female--those things only matter if she's going to stand for Progressive principles (which she claims) and not just be another ditto-stamp.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dcc ... gressives/
Incumbency is a huge advantage in an election, with Frelinghuysen retiring it's more of an even playing field for both parties. Looks like Frelinghuysen won by comfortable majorities.
https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_ ... l_District
The 11th went for Trump in 2016 48.8% to Clinton's 47.9%. Clinton won the state 55% to Trump's 41%.
Reps have a slight advantage in voter registration in the district.
http://nj.gov/state/elections/2016-resu ... strict.pdf
Dems will need the the right candidate.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#14 Post by YankeeTarheel » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:54 pm

highdesert wrote:
YankeeTarheel wrote:Consider this and be depressed, be very depressed. In my district, NJ 11, where jelly-spine Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring rather than face his first REAL challenge ever, the anointed one by the Democratic PTB is Mikie Sherrill, who checks all the boxes, is "officially" designated the front-runner for the nomination, and is, as far as I can tell, just another would-be thrall who will "bravely" vote exactly as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer tell her to. The other candidates can't even get ink, but somehow, Mikie gets a NY Times front-page, above-the-fold feature. And she doesn't even live in NJ-11!

Yet at a public forum, she dodged MY question on the division in the party and where she stands on it, being that the DNC was late to the party in NJ, VA, and Alabama, and another tough questioner as well on the shut-down. "I'm always against shut-downs" she demurred. This is the best we can do? I don't care that she's ex-mil and female--those things only matter if she's going to stand for Progressive principles (which she claims) and not just be another ditto-stamp.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dcc ... gressives/
Incumbency is a huge advantage in an election, with Frelinghuysen retiring it's more of an even playing field for both parties. Looks like Frelinghuysen won by comfortable majorities.
https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_ ... l_District
The 11th went for Trump in 2016 48.8% to Clinton's 47.9%. Clinton won the state 55% to Trump's 41%.
Reps have a slight advantage in voter registration in the district.
http://nj.gov/state/elections/2016-resu ... strict.pdf
Dems will need the the right candidate.
One thing you left out: In November, Phil Murphy won the 11th handily, which improves the odds for Democrats. If Mikie Sherrill get the nom, cooked or not, I'll still vote for her. These days (unlike in the past) a bad Democrat is still better than a good Republican (which are getting as rare as unicorns)
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#15 Post by highdesert » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:51 pm

"Five blue states could determine who controls the House in 2018" - Harry Enten 538
New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s retirement announcement this week wasn’t a game changer in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Even before his announcement, Frelinghuysen, a Republican, was in danger of losing a re-election bid in the 11th Congressional District, which President Trump won by a mere 1 percentage point in 2016. With Frelinghuysen out of the race, Democrats and Republicans are expected to fight it out over the now-open seat.

But even if the Frelinghuysen news isn’t earthshaking, it’s a reminder that whether Democrats manage to win the House in 2018 could come down to how many seats they pick up in the five most populous states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Virginia.

The vast majority of Republican House members don’t hail from these states, of course. In fact, of the 241 seats Republicans controlled after the 2016 elections, just 42 (17 percent) were from these five states. That’s not surprising — this isn’t GOP territory; Clinton carried all these states by at least 5 percentage points, and House and presidential voting are increasingly connected.

But while California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Virginia account for only a small percentage of Republican-held seats overall, they are home to a disproportionate share of vulnerable Republicans. According to the Cook Political Report, these five states are home to 38 percent of all the Republican-held seats that are truly in play in 2018.1

California has the largest number of vulnerable Republican House seats with eight (out of 14 GOP-held seats in the state). But New Jersey — Frelinghuysen’s state — has a higher proportion of flippable GOP seats (four of five). Even if we take “likely Republican” seats off the table and look at just those seats in the lean and toss-up categories, a majority of New Jersey Republicans still make the list. This includes Frelinghuysen’s seat, which is rated as a toss-up.

The most interesting thing about these states, though, is the total number of Republican seats that are rated as at least somewhat vulnerable.2 If you add them all up, a total of 25 Republican seats in these five populous Clinton states could flip to the Democrats. That’s one more seat than Democrats need to gain a majority. In other words, they could take back the House without flipping a single seat in a state that Trump came close to winning in 2016.

Now, Democrats are probably not going to win a House majority based solely on heavily populated blue states. The competitive districts in these Clinton states aren’t all alike. Some are well-educated, like Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. Others are best described as working-class, like New York’s 22nd District. Some are whiter than the nation as a whole, like New Jersey’s 11th; others are majority non-white, like California’s 39th. The national political environment — what turnout looks like in November, and which groups Democrats over- or underperform with — will therefore manifest itself differently in each of these districts.

The chances are that Democrats are going to lose at least a few of these blue-state seats, while also flipping some seats in states that Trump won in 2016, such as Arizona, Florida and especially Pennsylvania, where six Republican seats are vulnerable.

It does seem pretty clear at this point, however, that the 2018 midterm elections are going to be fought on very different turf than the special elections that dominated the 2017 landscape, or even the 2016 election. Instead of national reporters rushing to red states like Alabama, Georgia, Kansas and Montana, or parachuting into the Rust Belt, they’ll be setting up camp in well-populated blue states.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... e-in-2018/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#16 Post by K9s » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:15 pm

No one can forecast voter turnout months ahead of time. Alabama gave me some hope for Georgia. Not much, but some hope. All we can do is vote and hope.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#17 Post by highdesert » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:19 pm

I agree, voter turn out is key since traditionally Republicans are more motivated during midterms than Democrats. The "W" word is still a long way down the road, Democrats have to select the right candidates as PA 18 showed and then turn out. Conservative groups spent about $14 million on the PA 18 election, liberal groups about $3.9 million so Republicans can't expect to just buy all the House and Senate seats.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#18 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:54 pm

With the election of Lamb, the Democrats now need only 24 seats for control--218 gives you absolute control.
I live in the 11th. This is a district that has gone Republican since 1984, but Frelinghuysen's predecessor, Dean Gallo, was a moderate Republican, popular, well-regarded and well-respected by both parties. Frelinghuysen never once faced a tough election starting in 1994, when Gallo withdrew, dying of prostate cancer, and Rodney was supposed to be a surrogate for him. He wasn't, instead a reliable vote always for the GOP leadership, proposing almost no legislation in his 24 years.
Rodney ("Rubber Stamp Rodney") only withdrew when it became clear he'd really have to fight, and fight HARD, for the first time, to keep his seat. Unfortunately, the two leading candidates for the Dem
nomination are a) Mikie Sherrill, a cookie-cutter pick of the DCCC who never says ANYTHING controversial. Her brightest spot is that she's for tighter gun-ownership laws, rather than limiting the devices. b) Tamara Harris, while not endorsed by the DCCC, and VERY Progressive, is absolutely for a total AWB.
Other candidates are either going nowhere, or, like the mayor endorsed by a local range owner, were pushed out of the race (I suspect by someone like Steney Hoyer, but I only have speculation)
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#19 Post by highdesert » Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:55 am

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:54 pm
With the election of Lamb, the Democrats now need only 24 seats for control--218 gives you absolute control.
I live in the 11th. This is a district that has gone Republican since 1984, but Frelinghuysen's predecessor, Dean Gallo, was a moderate Republican, popular, well-regarded and well-respected by both parties. Frelinghuysen never once faced a tough election starting in 1994, when Gallo withdrew, dying of prostate cancer, and Rodney was supposed to be a surrogate for him. He wasn't, instead a reliable vote always for the GOP leadership, proposing almost no legislation in his 24 years.
Rodney ("Rubber Stamp Rodney") only withdrew when it became clear he'd really have to fight, and fight HARD, for the first time, to keep his seat. Unfortunately, the two leading candidates for the Dem
nomination are a) Mikie Sherrill, a cookie-cutter pick of the DCCC who never says ANYTHING controversial. Her brightest spot is that she's for tighter gun-ownership laws, rather than limiting the devices. b) Tamara Harris, while not endorsed by the DCCC, and VERY Progressive, is absolutely for a total AWB.
Other candidates are either going nowhere, or, like the mayor endorsed by a local range owner, were pushed out of the race (I suspect by someone like Steney Hoyer, but I only have speculation)
What are the Republican alternatives in the 11th? Are they pro-gun or similar to Sherrill? After the election of Lamb, someone in the DCCC said that they had at least 60 Democratic candidates that were similar to Lamb that would be running in primaries. Of course Lamb looked like he was a male model running against a tired old Republican with a track record of doing little. The more the DCCC can match candidates to districts the better chance they have of winning in November.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#20 Post by highdesert » Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:38 am

New NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll:

Image

"All Registered Voters" shows Democrats have a ten point edge over Republicans.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/electi ... ns-n857466
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#21 Post by CDFingers » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:18 am

Journalists have been relentless and ferocious and effective in unmasking and reporting the truth—and news institutions have developed more committed readership as a result. A broad democratic coalition of citizens is mobilizing against Trumpism—most recently in a Pennsylvania congressional district believed to be so solidly Republican that Democrats let the incumbent run unopposed in recent elections. Other institutions, including the very FBI that Trump is assaulting, are knuckling down and doing their jobs in the face of pressure. This is not the stuff of a rotting democracy.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... picks=true

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highdesert
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#22 Post by highdesert » Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:40 pm

CDFingers wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:18 am
Journalists have been relentless and ferocious and effective in unmasking and reporting the truth—and news institutions have developed more committed readership as a result. A broad democratic coalition of citizens is mobilizing against Trumpism—most recently in a Pennsylvania congressional district believed to be so solidly Republican that Democrats let the incumbent run unopposed in recent elections. Other institutions, including the very FBI that Trump is assaulting, are knuckling down and doing their jobs in the face of pressure. This is not the stuff of a rotting democracy.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... picks=true

Vote, and get out the vote.
Trump can whine and he can fire senior FBI officials, but he has been singularly ineffective either in getting the bureau to investigate his political opponents (they have not yet “locked her up”) or in dropping the Russia investigation, which continues to his apparent endless frustration. If this is constitutional rot, it's inspiring a surge of public commitment to underlying democratic ideals—including the independence of law enforcement.
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"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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K9s
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#23 Post by K9s » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:41 pm

I read that Atlantic article today. The analogy that democracy is being undermined and that the 'antibodies' are fighting the infection/disease made me feel a little better.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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K9s
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#24 Post by K9s » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:24 pm

Primary runoffs for governor happening down here in GA. The Reps are both milquetoast establishment corporatists, but are running hard to the right. They claim to both be just like Trump and spew the anti-abortion, anti-immigrant, pro-NRA lines. Polls have them neck-and-neck. This state is actually in play, according to some polls. The polls that claim Rep win +5% are not polling voters that are becoming activated. The farther right the Reps go, the closer the race gets with Abrams.

So far, no one here has been accused of using stolen DNC documents, but that's because Dems rarely run against Reps here - until now.

What's happening in your state?
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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SubRosa
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#25 Post by SubRosa » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:22 pm

In Az, the major players are Sinema vs. Arpaio for Flakes' seat in the Senate.

Not too dirty yet, but it will be.

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