Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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The Democratic candidate trying to unseat Cruz is doing his best to shoot himself in the foot. At the beginning of the year it looked like a Democrat would have a significant lead over the incumbent. By late spring Cruz was slightly ahead in polls. In a tight election or any election in Texas it doesn't pay to come out in support of an "assault weapons ban". I'm almost certain we will be stuck with Cruz for another term. Thanks to dimwit. I'm being generous.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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I am truly blown away about Arizona! I lived there for years and sorta wrote off AZ as a Rep stronghold. Even if it doesn't turn AZ purple, I am still impressed!

June 26, 2018: NBC News released the results of a poll it conducted alongside Marist College. The poll, which was conducted between June 17 and June 21, asked 839 registered voters who they would support in hypothetical matchups between Kyrsten Sinema (D) and three Republican candidates. The poll found that in a matchup against Martha McSally (R), 49 percent of voters would back Sinema while 38 percent would back McSally. In a matchup against Joe Arpaio (R), 57 percent of voters would back Sinema and 32 percent would back Arpaio. In a matchup against Kelli Ward (R), 48 percent would back Sinema while 38 percent would back Ward.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first- ... ns-n886731
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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sikacz wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:29 pm The Democratic candidate trying to unseat Cruz is doing his best to shoot himself in the foot. At the beginning of the year it looked like a Democrat would have a significant lead over the incumbent. By late spring Cruz was slightly ahead in polls. In a tight election or any election in Texas it doesn't pay to come out in support of an "assault weapons ban". I'm almost certain we will be stuck with Cruz for another term. Thanks to dimwit. I'm being generous.
I never saw Cruz as endangered. I certainly hoped and prayed, but that is one Senate seat that I never understood. Like my state, slimy senators get re-elected.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Cruz has a comfortable lead in the polls, of course it will tighten as it gets closer to November. I agree, O'Rourke was stupid to back an assault weapons ban in TX. He's young, handsome, a populist and is bi-lingual and he could have run a better campaign.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:57 pm Cruz has a comfortable lead in the polls, of course it will tighten as it gets closer to November. I agree, O'Rourke was stupid to back an assault weapons ban in TX. He's young, handsome, a populist and is bi-lingual and he could have run a better campaign.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
Yep.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Trump didn't win AZ with a huge margin - Trump 49.03% to Clinton 45.46% -- 3.57%. Sinema has a good chance over McSalley, I think Arpaio and Ward who are both winger wackos aren't really in play. The Rep primary is August 28th and polls show McSally as the leader so Arpaio and Ward will be history.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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The CA Democratic Party ended up endorsing Kevin de Leon over incumbent US Senator Dianne Feinstein.
DiFi is way ahead in the polls so it's moot, she will be re-elected.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol- ... story.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6592.html

I know Republicans who will vote vote for Feinstein like they've voted for Jerry Brown in the past. De Leon has authored a number of firearm restriction bills.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:06 pm Trump didn't win AZ with a huge margin - Trump 49.03% to Clinton 45.46% -- 3.57%. Sinema has a good chance over McSalley, I think Arpaio and Ward who are both winger wackos aren't really in play. The Rep primary is August 28th and polls show McSally as the leader so Arpaio and Ward will be history.
That's what they said about Roy Moore in Alabama (and DT). You never know until you know. Right wing wackery runs deep these days.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:16 pm The CA Democratic Party ended up endorsing Kevin de Leon over incumbent US Senator Dianne Feinstein.
DiFi is way ahead in the polls so it's moot, she will be re-elected.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol- ... story.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6592.html

I know Republicans who will vote vote for Feinstein like they've voted for Jerry Brown in the past. De Leon has authored a number of firearm restriction bills.
I saw that, but I don't understand why it means Feinstein will win. When will an anti-poverty/pro-healthcare candidate show up to contest her?
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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K9s wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:24 pm
highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:16 pm The CA Democratic Party ended up endorsing Kevin de Leon over incumbent US Senator Dianne Feinstein.
DiFi is way ahead in the polls so it's moot, she will be re-elected.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol- ... story.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6592.html

I know Republicans who will vote vote for Feinstein like they've voted for Jerry Brown in the past. De Leon has authored a number of firearm restriction bills.
I saw that, but I don't understand why it means Feinstein will win. When will an anti-poverty/pro-healthcare candidate show up to contest her?
Jungle primary, top two candidates regardless of party are on the November ballot. Even though de Leon only won 12% of the vote in the primary, he came in second so he'll be on the ballot. She'll be in until she's 89 years old unless health issues intervene.

The top polling Republican in the primary was Patrick Little, a neo-Nazi that the CA Republican Party wouldn't even allow in their convention.
https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/poli ... 22574.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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highdesert wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:35 pm The generic ballot question - if the election were held today which party would you like to see control Congress. Polls from 538.
Interesting to me: Reps/Fox always quote Rasmussen, but it has a suspect methodology. Even Rasmussen has Dems +9.

Less than four months to November. Things will become interesting.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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K9s wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:00 pm
highdesert wrote: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:35 pm The generic ballot question - if the election were held today which party would you like to see control Congress. Polls from 538.
Interesting to me: Reps/Fox always quote Rasmussen, but it has a suspect methodology. Even Rasmussen has Dems +9.

Less than four months to November. Things will become interesting.
Yes, still a few state primaries to go. Fox News is batshit crazy but they use reputable pollsters in this case
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers July 9-11, 2018 among a random national sample of 1,007 registered voters (RV). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Landline (360) and cellphone (647) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.
Rasmussen is always the most favorable to Trump and Republicans in general, they use robocalls (automated).

It will be an interesting midterm election.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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CDFingers wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:22 am We have to take back both Houses and investigate the shit out of these slime balls. Proper prosecution and punishment would go a long way to healing this oozing, genital ulcer of an administration.

ETA: I read fivethirtyeight every day.

CDFingers
Realistically, the Reps have a chance to lose the House. The Senate is probably going to remain in Rep hands. Nothing is certain, but it will take a LOT of luck and work just to flip the House. We can dream, though!
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Carl_Spackler wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:33 am
atxgunguy wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:43 am
richardw wrote:The election is eleven months away. I put no stock in any poll taken this early.
After the 2016 election, I will never take stock in any poll.
Yep. I seem to recall Nate Silver favoring Clinton over Trump during the election. We all know how that turned out
Nate Silver also gave Trump a much larger chance of success than anyone else did. Something like 30% if I recall correctly. Given how close the race turned out to be I think Silver actually did a very good job.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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CDFingers wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:45 am https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... lose-race/

CDFingers
The 2-3 point lead in the polls for Clinton was within the margin of error, most polls are 3-4 points. National polling is better than state polls, but the presidency is won in the electoral college state by state. Toss a coin, it was a 50/50 chance of Clinton or Trump winning.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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sikacz wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:00 pm
highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:57 pm Cruz has a comfortable lead in the polls, of course it will tighten as it gets closer to November. I agree, O'Rourke was stupid to back an assault weapons ban in TX. He's young, handsome, a populist and is bi-lingual and he could have run a better campaign.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
Yep.
It ain't over til the fat lady sings!! Beto and Cruz are basically even on money raised and Beto is within the margin (3-5%) and I expect it will tighten as we get closer to Nov. Most of Cruz' money has come from out of state and Pac, so they are worried he is in trouble. I'm cautiously optimistic that smarmy Cruz can be defeated in Texas even if Beto is for AWB, as there are more important things to be considered and AWB isn't going to happen regardless of what anal single issue gun voters think or say. This November is to help salvage a nation, not debate AWB.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Wino wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:33 am
sikacz wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:00 pm
highdesert wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:57 pm Cruz has a comfortable lead in the polls, of course it will tighten as it gets closer to November. I agree, O'Rourke was stupid to back an assault weapons ban in TX. He's young, handsome, a populist and is bi-lingual and he could have run a better campaign.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
Yep.
It ain't over til the fat lady sings!! Beto and Cruz are basically even on money raised and Beto is within the margin (3-5%) and I expect it will tighten as we get closer to Nov. Most of Cruz' money has come from out of state and Pac, so they are worried he is in trouble. I'm cautiously optimistic that smarmy Cruz can be defeated in Texas even if Beto is for AWB, as there are more important things to be considered and AWB isn't going to happen regardless of what anal single issue gun voters think or say. This November is to help salvage a nation, not debate AWB.
Yes, it's not over until November and demographics are changing in TX, but there are a lot of single issue voters especially among gun owners. I wish Beto luck.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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atxgunguy wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:38 am
CDFingers wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:45 am https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... lose-race/

CDFingers
Honestly, FiveThirtyEight can blow their numbers out their worthless butthole.
Just because they're read doesn't make them believed.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Don't let them do or say something you don't know about.

Write and call your congress critter. Write LTTE's. Practice your hand gun skilz. (It's a gun board...)

CDFingers
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like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

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