2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#101 Post by highdesert » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:04 am

Bardo wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:26 pm
Dont discount rasmussen in 538 terms, cause they actually were spot on in 2016
Finally, what to make of Trump’s implication that Rasmussen should be more trusted because it was more accurate than other pollsters about the 2016 election? The strongest evidence comes from looking at the final pre-election national polls.

According to the rundown in RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen was the only pollster to get the popular vote result -- a two-point Hillary Clinton win -- correct in its final pre-election poll. Two pollsters (Monmouth University and NBC News/Survey Monkey) had Clinton winning by six points; four (ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News, Fox News, and Economist/YouGov) had Clinton winning by four, two (Bloomberg and Reuters/Ipsos) had Clinton winning by three, one (IBD/TIPP) had Trump winning by two, and one had Trump winning by five (Los Angeles Times/USC).

However, it’s worth taking this with a grain of salt. First, the polls that had Clinton winning by two or three points were all very close to the mark once margins of error are taken into account. And second, Rasmussen was lucky to have its two-point margin come during the final pre-election poll. During the last week before the election, its daily results were scattered -- Clinton by three, tie, tie, Trump by three, tie, and Clinton by two.

Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s comprehensive pollster ratings gives Rasmussen the mediocre grade of C-plus, and it found a two-point Republican bias in its polls. (This rating did not encompass the entire 2016 campaign, but it did go back earlier; it factored in 657 polls by Rasmussen.)
Rasmussen uses automated surveys [robocalls].

"Automated polls only call landlines, which means they miss the roughly half (!!) of the American population that uses mobile phones only," FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver wrote in February.

"This matters because cell-only individuals tend to be younger, lower income, and more urban, all of which bias landline-only surveys in a conservative direction," Smith said.
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... ks-pollin/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#102 Post by Bardo » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:29 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:26 pm
Very depressing how YET AGAIN, Democrats, who have a clear plurality, if not a majority throughout the nation STILL find new and innovative ways to lose, as well the good old ones!
I blame the senile, moribund, lost-their-way-and-their-morals leadership.

If you don't stand for something, you'll stand for anything! And they do. More near-sighted than I am without my glasses. So narrow focused a horse with blinders on has a more panoramic vision.
Rethugs don't need to out-fox Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, and Feinstein--they do it all by themselves!
Meh not to be disagreeable but i dont think this is one you can blame on the party. They have massively out raised the grand old perverts. Obama could be out there much stronger...

We are dealing with criminal levels of gerrymandering and the media has way over hyped the "blue wave" narrative.

This one is kind of up to fascist enthusiasm or lack of

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#103 Post by YankeeTarheel » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:10 pm

Obama COULD be out there stronger, but instead we got:

Elizabeth Warren publicizing her DNA test BEFORE the election.
Hillary Clinton saying her husband having "relations" with Monica Lewinsky was NOT an abuse of Power and that he shouldn't have resigned over it...Oh, and that she was over 21.
Like such distractions are really needed! Tom Perez should ask them BOTH to PLEASE!!! STFU till after the election!

Meanwhile, Beto O'Rourke has blown it, nationalizing the Texas Senate race rather than making it about Texas, alienating 2A proponents otherwise inclined to support him, and spending money on campaign ads rather than registration drives and transportation for likely voters to break through voter restriction in that state..
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#104 Post by CDFingers » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:49 pm

Democracy is messy: from time to time the wrong bunch gets a lot of control. They do some damage. Then they get voted out. It's a beautiful chaos in a way if you take the long view. In my lifetime we've gone from 48 to 50 states, legal segregation to voluntary, women as housewife to woman as person, and commies are bad to commies are good. Wait, what? No, really. Think Loving vs Virginia, and so many more. Messy. The arc is good.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#105 Post by highdesert » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:05 pm

CA US senate election - Dianne Feinstein (D) is running for reelection and her opponent is state senator Kevin De Leon (D). New LA Times/USC Dornsife poll:
Senate candidate Kevin de León has campaigned as the progressive alternative to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, but with the election just weeks away, his strongest support is coming from Republicans, according to a new USC-Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.

De León planned his campaign as an insurgency from the left against his fellow Democrat, but a funny thing happened on the way to the revolution: The battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court made Feinstein, the senior Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, a high-profile target of President Trump. On conservative media, commentators have urged California Republicans to cast ballots against Feinstein as retribution.

The poll, which was in the field while the Kavanaugh fight raged, can’t show cause and effect, but does clearly indicate an unexpected twist in the race: De León, one of the most liberal candidates to run statewide in a general election, now gets more support from registered Republicans than from liberal Democrats. “It is a profound irony, given the rationale of his campaign, that De León is getting more support from Trump supporters,” said Robert Shrum, co-director of USC’s Center for the Political Future. “He’s doing better among people who fundamentally disagree with his message than people who agree with his message.”

In a state as heavily Democratic as California, gaining the support of Trump backers isn’t a ticket to success. The poll shows Feinstein leading De León by 44% to 31% among likely voters in her bid for a fifth full term in the Senate.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol- ... story.html

De Leon is farther to the left than Feinstein and is responsible for more anti-gun legislation in CA.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#106 Post by featureless » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:30 pm

I can't bring myself to fill in the bubble by Feinstein. I've never not voted for Feinstein since 93 but I'm just so sick and tired of the bullshit AW ban threats and her mishandling of the Ford allegations set me over. I need to do some more investigation on de Leon. Your thoughts?

I'm having the same problem with Newsom/Cox. Won't vote Cox but can't stomach Newsom on #metoo grounds and the obvious shit he'll pull on gun regs.

I'm just tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. We will never have an alternative if we continue to vote that way. There may be some blanks on the ballot for the first time ever

Edited to add: de Leon claims to be the power that was behind making background checks for ammunition a CA law. Too bad, he's solid on social and environmental issues. I guess I'll (once again) vote against my rights for the collective good of others. Yippy skippy. :hmm:
Last edited by featureless on Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#107 Post by YankeeTarheel » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:30 pm

Dems can still blow it.
So-called "Leaders" are fucking up every which way, giving Retrumplicans ammunition and energy close to the election.

Diane Feinstein played the Dr. Ford card a bit too cleverly, giving herself no cover.
Michael Avenatti played up HIS Yale client a bit too stupidly without checking on her enough or getting REAL corroboration, meaning it was portrayed as a phony trick.
Elizabeth Warren decided to "reveal" her DNA testing and go to a word war with Mario's Mushroom AHEAD of the election and distract from the real issues.
Hillary and Bill Clinton decided this was the PERFECT time to sound off and market themselves, including Hillary getting stuck having to defend Bill's abuse of power re: M. Lewinski
Beto O'Rourke (WHO is mis-advising this guy????) started slipping by making his campaign "national" rather than about Texas and how Cruz hurts Texas.
Nancy Pelosi (yet again!) takes "Impeachment" off the table--she doesn't say "It's premature before the Mueller Report and House investigations" when she's been good about NOT speaking up!
Cory Booker makes a lot of noise, doesn't respond to constituents/supporters (like ME!) and every email asks for (more) money for Senate races.
NONE of the so-called "leadership" is pushing for small donor donations (I keep saying small donors WILL vote for you whatever it takes--big donors are buying access).

And the national Party needs to solicit donations SPECIFICALLY to fight voter suppression from a 3-pronged attack: Legal, Re-registering people, Transportation.
I just hope the Democrats "fail" in reverse, ie, are, for once, UNABLE to snatch defeat from the "jaws of victory".
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#108 Post by featureless » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:45 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:30 pm
Dems can still blow it.
So-called "Leaders" are fucking up every which way, giving Retrumplicans ammunition and energy close to the election.

Diane Feinstein played the Dr. Ford card a bit too cleverly, giving herself no cover.
Michael Avenatti played up HIS Yale client a bit too stupidly without checking on her enough or getting REAL corroboration, meaning it was portrayed as a phony trick.
Elizabeth Warren decided to "reveal" her DNA testing and go to a word war with Mario's Mushroom AHEAD of the election and distract from the real issues.
Hillary and Bill Clinton decided this was the PERFECT time to sound off and market themselves, including Hillary getting stuck having to defend Bill's abuse of power re: M. Lewinski
Beto O'Rourke (WHO is mis-advising this guy????) started slipping by making his campaign "national" rather than about Texas and how Cruz hurts Texas.
Nancy Pelosi (yet again!) takes "Impeachment" off the table--she doesn't say "It's premature before the Mueller Report and House investigations" when she's been good about NOT speaking up!
Cory Booker makes a lot of noise, doesn't respond to constituents/supporters (like ME!) and every email asks for (more) money for Senate races.
NONE of the so-called "leadership" is pushing for small donor donations (I keep saying small donors WILL vote for you whatever it takes--big donors are buying access).

And the national Party needs to solicit donations SPECIFICALLY to fight voter suppression from a 3-pronged attack: Legal, Re-registering people, Transportation.
I just hope the Democrats "fail" in reverse, ie, are, for once, UNABLE to snatch defeat from the "jaws of victory".
Good summary, YT. The dem party has zero leadership and messaging is all over the place (but consistent on yall shouldn't have guns and we ain't Trump--what a message!). I don't expect we'll do as well as we hope in the mid terms. There're a lot of angry people out there.

Leadership should, primarily, be used to lead toward a collective goal of a higher place/order. Sometimes, leadership must attack (WWII, for example). We seem to have that backwards these days. We focus only on attack of team Trump (lots to attack, but not a goal) and attack on 2A rights by any means necessary/imaginable while leading right back into the swamp of corporate domination. Fun times.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#109 Post by K9s » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:02 pm

Seriously... the DNC is the Dinosaur Nat'l Committee. Retrumplicans (love that word, YT) will lose if you take control of the void yourselves. Organize and donate locally. Vote for local candidates that you want. It does work, but it will take time. The DNC will push candidates on you but they have no idea what you and your people need in your area.

The DNC wanted white republican-lite female candidates in the south (as always). The south would remain Retrumplican because of that strategy. The people ignored the polls and the DNC. Now many states/districts/counties/cities have the candidates they actually want now. Black female candidates in Alabama are at record numbers. Gillum was at 13% in the polls and won his Florida primary handily. Abrams won by a landslide in Georgia.

It ain't over 'til it's over. However, this time we have candidates we want. No more "less worse" candidates.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#110 Post by highdesert » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:52 pm

Senator and governor were the two I also had problems with, I'm beginning to hate the "top two" system. I wish we had the option of "none of the above" or NOTA on CA ballots, maybe that would wake up CA parties. At least for governor there is a choice limited as it is, for senate not much. As I mentioned on another thread, for congress I had the choice of conservative incumbent or wacko winger, two Republicans. It was easier for me getting through all the ballot propositions.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#111 Post by Bisbee » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:27 am

Alright... is this considered spamming now? Is Goperfect spamming the forum or does he have to mention Nike and Addidas to get the boot-rectomy.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#112 Post by K9s » Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:37 am

Bisbee wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:27 am
Alright... is this considered spamming now? Is Goperfect spamming the forum or does he have to mention Nike and Addidas to get the boot-rectomy.
I don't see anything from that user here on this thread?
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#113 Post by Eris » Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:39 am

K9s wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:37 am
Bisbee wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:27 am
Alright... is this considered spamming now? Is Goperfect spamming the forum or does he have to mention Nike and Addidas to get the boot-rectomy.
I don't see anything from that user here on this thread?
He not only got banned, but all his posts were deleted.
88+ recreational uses of firearms
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#114 Post by K9s » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:34 pm

Oh. OK. He/she was pretty obviously (IMHO) not who he/she claimed to be. I didn't get to see the spamming, though.

Anyway, the polls are tightening. That is common. Retrumplicans are going to come out and vote no matter what. It is up to the rest of us to vote this midterm. Hope it works out in your states and districts.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#115 Post by Wino » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:06 am

Eris wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:39 am
K9s wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:37 am
Bisbee wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:27 am
Alright... is this considered spamming now? Is Goperfect spamming the forum or does he have to mention Nike and Addidas to get the boot-rectomy.
I don't see anything from that user here on this thread?
He not only got banned, but all his posts were deleted.
Thanks. I was out for a few days and missed the excitement and the odd and ends post references didn't clear up, until now. Name was not familiar - was s/he new sign up? Just curious.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#116 Post by featureless » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:56 am

Wino wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:06 am
Thanks. I was out for a few days and missed the excitement and the odd and ends post references didn't clear up, until now. Name was not familiar - was s/he new sign up? Just curious.
A couple of new sign ups. I missed some of it but it went essentially thus:

Newbies had some fun bashing LGBQ members.
Newbies had some fun labeling us all as the typical intolerant lot.
Huckleberry Fun said "I'll be your Huckleberry."
Clown came out of hibernation with the ban hammer.
Other mods with access to the "football" have nuked subsequent accounts by one individual.
We've been instructed in "see something, say something" and not to take the law into our own hands.
And now we return to our usual banter.
;)

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#117 Post by highdesert » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:39 am

featureless wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:56 am
Wino wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:06 am
Thanks. I was out for a few days and missed the excitement and the odd and ends post references didn't clear up, until now. Name was not familiar - was s/he new sign up? Just curious.
A couple of new sign ups. I missed some of it but it went essentially thus:

Newbies had some fun bashing LGBQ members.
Newbies had some fun labeling us all as the typical intolerant lot.
Huckleberry Fun said "I'll be your Huckleberry."
Clown came out of hibernation with the ban hammer.
Other mods with access to the "football" have nuked subsequent accounts by one individual.
We've been instructed in "see something, say something" and not to take the law into our own hands.
And now we return to our usual banter.
;)
Thanks, I too missed some of the dramatics. That Klown knows how to get rid of all of the forensic evidence. Revenge for the Ammoland comments? 14 days to go until November 6th, it can't come too soon.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#118 Post by YankeeTarheel » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:26 pm

Yeah, bunch of clowns (not Klown) came from the NY Gun Forum to act like bully-boys and stir up trouble, pretend it was US, not THEM, then went back-slapping and high-fiving on their forum.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#119 Post by highdesert » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:37 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:26 pm
Yeah, bunch of clowns (not Klown) came from the NY Gun Forum to act like bully-boys and stir up trouble, pretend it was US, not THEM, then went back-slapping and high-fiving on their forum.
Thanks for the background, I don't go on other gun forums with the exception of Calguns if I'm looking for something CA related. It's a hot election season, probably more clowns out there. The mods have extra ways of checking plus the execution button.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#120 Post by Wino » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:44 pm

Thanks. Not real sorry I missed the fun. LOL

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#121 Post by Bardo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:34 pm

Dem congressional candidate holding debate viewing party wednesday. 5 people RSVP'd on FB. Paying $15hr to canvass 3 people responded. More pube trolls post than anything. Its so sad.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#122 Post by highdesert » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:19 pm

New USC Dornsife/LA Times poll
In this and every election, both sides devote huge resources to getting their partisans to turn out and vote — “motivating the base,” in the jargon of politics.

But in many close races in California and around the country, a different group, those who don’t like either party or its leaders, could hold the decisive votes.

The “hold your nose and vote” brigade makes up a sizable chunk of the electorate, according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. With election day just over a week away, the poll indicates they lean toward the Democrats. That’s one reason Democrats remain favored to win back control of the House.

Overall, this latest poll, conducted last week, finds Democrats leading 57% to 40% when likely voters were asked for which party’s candidates they plan to vote, a 17-point edge.

That’s a notable increase in Democratic support from the previous week, when the poll found Democrats with a 13-point advantage. The increase, which stemmed from small shifts among several groups of voters, may partly reflect timing. The final two days of the poll coincided with the arrest on Friday of a Florida man on charges of sending explosive devices to prominent Democrats and critics of President Trump, and the killing on Saturday of 11 people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. In a tweet on Friday, Trump expressed concern that news coverage of the mail bombs might hurt Republicans. Whether either of those events might have a lasting effect on the election is anyone’s guess. So far this year, however, news events have not had a large or long-term impact.

A second measure in the poll that factors in voters’ estimates of how likely they are to cast a ballot also shows Democrats ahead by a narrower 52% to 42%.

In 2016, the same poll consistently showed then-candidate Trump winning. It skewed toward the Republicans by a few percentage points in its estimate of the final vote.
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll continues to show roughly equal levels of interest in the election on both sides. That’s an encouraging sign for Democrats, whose voters have lagged significantly in the last two midterm elections. Just under 4 in 10 Democrats and Republicans said they were paying “very close” or “extremely close” attention to the campaign.

But with the two sides closely balanced, the outcome in many races could depend on voters who don’t easily fit with either party.

The poll offers two ways to examine the views of voters who disdain both sides. One simply looks at their views of the party leaders.

Likely voters disapproved of Trump’s performance in office by 57% to 41%, the poll found. That 16-point gap remains historically bad for a president in a time of strong economic growth.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, the House Democratic leader, is less well known but fared no better among voters with an opinion. Likely voters disapproved of her by 49% to 32%, with 19% unsure.

In both cases, a strong partisan gap shaped those approval numbers. In Pelosi’s case, gender played a strong role, as well: Even after taking party into account, men disapproved of her significantly more than women.

Roughly 1 in 6 likely voters disapproved of both. When asked which party’s candidate they plan to vote for, that group overwhelmingly favored the Democrats.

That’s the reverse of what took place two years ago.

In the presidential election, slightly more than 1 in 6 voters said they disliked both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Clinton campaign strategists hoped to win over many of those voters by constantly reminding them of aspects of Trump’s behavior that they disliked. In the end, however, those voters heavily favored Trump, according to exit polls.

That shouldn’t have come as a surprise, say political scientists John Sides of George Washington University, Lynn Vavreck of UCLA and Michael Tesler of UC Irvine. In their new book examining the 2016 election, “Identity Crisis,” they noted that those “double negative” voters were disproportionately Republicans.

“They appeared to be holding their nose and voting their partisanship,” they wrote.

That’s not the case this time: The “double negative” voters now — those who disapprove of both Trump and Pelosi — are more likely to have been Clinton voters in 2016.
Almost 1 in 5 likely voters opposed both, and they split closely on which they disliked more. But by 59% to 34%, they said they expected to support Democrats for Congress this year.

Unlike 2016, when the voters who disliked both candidates were disproportionately Republican, those who said they disapproved of both of the agendas described in the poll were more often women and tended to identify as independents, the poll found.

This USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, supervised by poll director Jill Darling, was conducted Oct. 21 to 27 among 3,922 adult Americans, including 3,453 registered voters, of whom 2,350 were considered likely to vote and 577 said they already had voted early.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-p ... story.html
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#123 Post by BjornSig » Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:02 am

I think the Democrats have had a very rough year. They continue to get off message, they keep falling for Trumps games and antics. They really played the Kavanaugh thing too hard. They lost and it made them look foolish. The entire Country was watching. Asking questions about the Fart club from when the Judge was 16 or 17. Just foolish. It did indeed hurt them. There horrible stance on the 2A, it continues to hurt them. My god, they are talking gun violence advice from a 17 turd. They go on CNN and so many of them sound foolish. If they lose in November, it will be their own fault.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#124 Post by Bardo » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:47 am

BjornSig wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:02 am
I think the Democrats have had a very rough year. They continue to get off message, they keep falling for Trumps games and antics. They really played the Kavanaugh thing too hard. They lost and it made them look foolish. The entire Country was watching. Asking questions about the Fart club from when the Judge was 16 or 17. Just foolish. It did indeed hurt them. There horrible stance on the 2A, it continues to hurt them. My god, they are talking gun violence advice from a 17 turd. They go on CNN and so many of them sound foolish. If they lose in November, it will be their own fault.
They do it because its not a political calculation, it's their actual views. Kavanaugh wasn't a "game" he lied under oath about sexual assault while displaying an unprecedented level of partisan demagoguery and conspiracy that would disqualify him for even jury duty, let alone the highest court of the nation. We had a week where another 11 people were slaughtered in a synagogue and the only real concern everyone else has is to make sure we do nothing to stop the constant mass murders. Literally not one idea has been put forth in a year where hundreds have been mass slaughtered; children in school, jews on shabbat, concert goers.

And you're saying its democrats that have a problem here.... :crazy:

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#125 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:49 am

BjornSig wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:02 am
I think the Democrats have had a very rough year. They continue to get off message, they keep falling for Trumps games and antics. They really played the Kavanaugh thing too hard. They lost and it made them look foolish. The entire Country was watching. Asking questions about the Fart club from when the Judge was 16 or 17. Just foolish. It did indeed hurt them. There horrible stance on the 2A, it continues to hurt them. My god, they are talking gun violence advice from a 17 turd. They go on CNN and so many of them sound foolish. If they lose in November, it will be their own fault.
Sounds like you watch a lot of Fox News. Candidates have had the same message all year. You may not like these candidates, but hope, courage, and honesty is what a majority of Americans want. Here's a recap:

Women Rising



MJ Hegar - Doors



The Courage to Change - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez



"Bring it Home" — Andrew Gillum

The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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