2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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CDFingers
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#126 Post by CDFingers » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:42 am

Our local conservative newspaper--a fair one, but conservative--just endorsed the Democrat over the sitting Republican saying the Repubs in Congress aren't checking the Executive Branch (paraphrase). CA district 1. LaMalfa, (T-toadie).

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#127 Post by featureless » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:44 pm

CDFingers wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:42 am
Our local conservative newspaper--a fair one, but conservative--just endorsed the Democrat over the sitting Republican saying the Repubs in Congress aren't checking the Executive Branch (paraphrase). CA district 1. LaMalfa, (T-toadie).

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#128 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:47 pm

I guess when you run on "Enemies of the People" you can't expect newspaper endorsements. Who would've guessed?
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#129 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:32 pm

You're in a red district like mine, doesn't look like my local has done endorsements yet. In 2016 they endorsed the incumbent, I expect the same this time.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#130 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:48 pm

Harry Enten at CNN explains the challenges for Democrats in winning the Senate.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics ... index.html

Key counties in this election.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... se/573298/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#131 Post by K9s » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:11 pm

highdesert wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:32 pm
You're in a red district like mine, doesn't look like my local has done endorsements yet. In 2016 they endorsed the incumbent, I expect the same this time.
AJC doesn't endorse candidates anymore. Smart move in a red state.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#132 Post by GeorgiaRN » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:52 pm

K9s wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:11 pm
highdesert wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:32 pm
You're in a red district like mine, doesn't look like my local has done endorsements yet. In 2016 they endorsed the incumbent, I expect the same this time.
AJC doesn't endorse candidates anymore. Smart move in a red state.
From what I see the AJC is 100% in for Abrams. While I think Abrams will close the gap where Jason Carter failed, I dont see her winning. She is too radical for "outside of Atlanta." She also reversed her stance on Georgia tax cuts.
Blue dog dems can do well outside of Atlanta. See Sanford Bishop. Unfortunately, Georgia politics tends to be "atlanta versus everybody else." Honestly, I dont believe either of them are trustworthy, but I was taught bo politicians are trustworthy
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#133 Post by YankeeTarheel » Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:01 pm

I live in a district that last elected a Democrat to Congress in 1983. In 1985, 2 of the most Democratic counties were sliced off and it's been Republican ever since.
But when the current Rep realized he actually need to run a REAL race, he "decided" to retire. Now, in the latest poll, the Democratic nominee is leading by 11 points. Double digits.
But what she hasn't indicated, nor has the DCCC, it NEVER would have happened if Trump's election hadn't motivated our local "Indivisible" movement, along with a couple of adjacent groups. WE made it happen, the residents of our district.

It's quite possible that EVERY Republican Representative in NJ could lose, but I think one may survive, but I hope not. In our Northern neighbor, NY, Collins, indicted for insider trading (right on the White House lawn!) is STILL leading when he may have to serve in the House from a Federal prison.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#134 Post by K9s » Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 pm

GeorgiaRN wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:52 pm
K9s wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:11 pm
highdesert wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:32 pm
You're in a red district like mine, doesn't look like my local has done endorsements yet. In 2016 they endorsed the incumbent, I expect the same this time.
AJC doesn't endorse candidates anymore. Smart move in a red state.
From what I see the AJC is 100% in for Abrams. While I think Abrams will close the gap where Jason Carter failed, I dont see her winning. She is too radical for "outside of Atlanta." She also reversed her stance on Georgia tax cuts.
Blue dog dems can do well outside of Atlanta. See Sanford Bishop. Unfortunately, Georgia politics tends to be "atlanta versus everybody else." Honestly, I dont believe either of them are trustworthy, but I was taught bo politicians are trustworthy
Like Beto in Texas, Stacey Abrams in Georgia was always a bigger longshot than most people understand. While ATL is a blue island in a sea of red counties, the Abrams strategy was probably the best chance for a Dem governor this cycle. We'll see what happens.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#135 Post by Wino » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:18 pm

Cruz by 2.6 points per news tonight. Getting tight (so am I)!
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#136 Post by YankeeTarheel » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:27 am

So...if Democrats win, Republicans will take to the streets with guns to overturn the results?
And if Republicans win, Republicans will take to the streets with guns knowing no one can stop them creating a fascist dictatorship?

If the latter, how long before the orange shit-stain comes up with an "Executive Order" allowing the seizure of guns from people like us?
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#137 Post by HuckleberryFun » Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:01 am

Great. Now I’m going to be up late on Election Day night riding the emotional roller coaster.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#138 Post by YankeeTarheel » Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:31 am

HuckleberryFun wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:01 am
Great. Now I’m going to be up late on Election Day night riding the emotional roller coaster.
I've been planning on that since the Media said "100 days until the election!" (maybe longer!) Preparing for it by getting less and less sleep each night--last night I indulged--6 hours.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#139 Post by highdesert » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:17 am

K9s wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 pm
GeorgiaRN wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:52 pm
K9s wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:11 pm
highdesert wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:32 pm
You're in a red district like mine, doesn't look like my local has done endorsements yet. In 2016 they endorsed the incumbent, I expect the same this time.
AJC doesn't endorse candidates anymore. Smart move in a red state.
From what I see the AJC is 100% in for Abrams. While I think Abrams will close the gap where Jason Carter failed, I dont see her winning. She is too radical for "outside of Atlanta." She also reversed her stance on Georgia tax cuts.
Blue dog dems can do well outside of Atlanta. See Sanford Bishop. Unfortunately, Georgia politics tends to be "atlanta versus everybody else." Honestly, I dont believe either of them are trustworthy, but I was taught bo politicians are trustworthy
Like Beto in Texas, Stacey Abrams in Georgia was always a bigger longshot than most people understand. While ATL is a blue island in a sea of red counties, the Abrams strategy was probably the best chance for a Dem governor this cycle. We'll see what happens.
The challenge for a successful politician is to find issues that appeal to city voters and voters in those red counties probably mostly rural. Oprah is on her way to do some campaigning for Stacy.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... ia-n929411

The race is still a tossup according to the polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... r/georgia/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#140 Post by levigold12 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:00 am

In my purple state of Colorado the governor race is looking good and it seems like the state is trending more and more blue. Jared Polis is a centrist democrat who used to be the rep for my district and is running on a moderate campaign, he's pro business to an extent and not super anti fracking which I think is giving him some more support, his opponent Walker Stapelton is related to the Bush family and is such a hack. In the televised debate held in my home town Stapleton looked like such a mes. Its looking more and more like Polis should win but Trump's election taught me I guess you have to be ready for anything.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#141 Post by highdesert » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:16 am

levigold12 wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:00 am
In my purple state of Colorado the governor race is looking good and it seems like the state is trending more and more blue. Jared Polis is a centrist democrat who used to be the rep for my district and is running on a moderate campaign, he's pro business to an extent and not super anti fracking which I think is giving him some more support, his opponent Walker Stapelton is related to the Bush family and is such a hack. In the televised debate held in my home town Stapleton looked like such a mes. Its looking more and more like Polis should win but Trump's election taught me I guess you have to be ready for anything.
The polls have favored Polis over Stapleton right along, beyond their margin of error. Polis has cred with the business community because he is a multi-millionaire who made a fortune.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /colorado/
...but Trump's election taught me I guess you have to be ready for anything.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#142 Post by K9s » Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:37 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:27 am
So...if Democrats win, Republicans will take to the streets with guns to overturn the results?
And if Republicans win, Republicans will take to the streets with guns knowing no one can stop them creating a fascist dictatorship?

If the latter, how long before the orange shit-stain comes up with an "Executive Order" allowing the seizure of guns from people like us?
No matter what, the right-wing terrorists are gonna do what they do. Tiny fraction of the population

Republicans will do just what they always do: Spread propaganda, hold "hearings" as show trials, appear on Fox, raid the Treasury.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#143 Post by highdesert » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:01 pm

A political analyst updated his outlook for the House just days before midterm elections, giving the Democrats an even greater edge over Republicans hoping to maintain power. Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that their forecast was being updated, predicting that Democrats gain 30-40 seats, up from 25-35 seats. Wasserman added that this prediction could change before the Nov. 6 midterm elections. The forecast suggests a so-called "blue wave" is becoming more likely. Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the lower chamber. In the Senate, which the GOP also controls, 24 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, are up for re-election. Nine Republicans are up for re-election. Only one seat, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's, D-N.D., is rated anything below "toss-up" at "lean-R," according to Cook Political Report.

RealClearPolitics gives Democrats a smaller edge in the House than Cook, factoring in a number of toss ups. Their latest House elections map shows Democrats taking 203 seats versus 198 for Republicans. Thirty-four races are listed in the "toss ups" category. Generic ballot polls also bode well for Democrats. RealClearPolitics' aggregate for the 2018 generic congressional vote gives a 7.5-percentage point advantage to Democrats. Also, one of the few polls that favored President Trump to win the 2016 election is now forecasting a strong general ballot for Democrats, showing them leading Republicans by 17 points.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... from-25-35

The Washington Examiner is a right wing publication. The Cook Political Report is highly regarded among all political parties. Be cautious, things could change.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#144 Post by K9s » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:18 pm

I was accused of being obsessed with polls and politics this weekend. I saw a guy wearing a Trump 2020 - F your Feelings shirt yesterday and just felt nervous. How can people get away with wearing this stuff out in public? What happened to... "for the children"? How can I canvass in these neighborhoods? I don't want to be detained or jailed for canvassing (it happens).

Anyone else out there nervously watching? I am stressed out. I drove new voters to the polls, voted early, and donated to Espy, Abrams, and Gillum. I should go find something else to do, but I don't want that 2016 gut punch feeling again.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#145 Post by featureless » Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:51 pm

Good on you, K9s.

Nerve wracking times.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#146 Post by K9s » Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:37 pm

featureless wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:51 pm
Good on you, K9s.

Nerve wracking times.
What is it like in blue states right now? No worries? Just wondering.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#147 Post by eelj » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:31 am

K9s wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:37 pm
featureless wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:51 pm
Good on you, K9s.

Nerve wracking times.
What is it like in blue states right now? No worries? Just wondering.
I haven't heard of any harassment or any pre-election tension that is abnormal in Mn yet. Glad to hear you are active in your local political scene, action speaks much louder than like hits on social media.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#148 Post by shinzen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:41 am

K9s wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:37 pm
featureless wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:51 pm
Good on you, K9s.

Nerve wracking times.
What is it like in blue states right now? No worries? Just wondering.
For my part, in CA, I'm just nervous as hell about what the rest of the country is doing. NV, AZ, MO, ND, FL, and IN. That said, I'm not horribly concerned about the house at this point, barring a major systemic polling error, it looks like like the house is going to flip, maybe a little, maybe a lot. The senate though........
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#149 Post by featureless » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:55 am

K9s wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:37 pm
featureless wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:51 pm
Good on you, K9s.

Nerve wracking times.
What is it like in blue states right now? No worries? Just wondering.
People are tense about the elections but I haven't heard of any real craziness in CA yet. My county is around 70 percent Democrat so, stakes are high but risks are low. Now my dad's county is about the opposite. He's been campaigning hard against Nunes and has had some run ins with assholes, but he's pretty vocal.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#150 Post by K9s » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:41 pm

I have to remind myself that I can only do what I can do and only vote in my district. It is my hope that other states will vote for decent people. We have no senate seat election this year, so Governor, AG, and House is all we can do to contribute to the national realignment.

Also, GA is GA, TX is TX, and FL is FL. Lots of red states. Even Dana RussiaBacker looks like he will win in California, so I can't feel too bad about GA.

Alabama and Virginia gave us the hope we needed to carry on. I really hope we don't get crushed again.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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