2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#51 Post by shinzen » Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:29 am

K9s wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:26 pm
Seems like everywhere you look... Is there a neo-Nazi/Republican running for office in every state?
One is an excusable error. Two is a problem. 9 is a trend.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#52 Post by sikacz » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:46 pm

Wino wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:33 am
sikacz wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:00 pm
highdesert wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:57 pm
Cruz has a comfortable lead in the polls, of course it will tighten as it gets closer to November. I agree, O'Rourke was stupid to back an assault weapons ban in TX. He's young, handsome, a populist and is bi-lingual and he could have run a better campaign.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20 ... -6310.html
Yep.
It ain't over til the fat lady sings!! Beto and Cruz are basically even on money raised and Beto is within the margin (3-5%) and I expect it will tighten as we get closer to Nov. Most of Cruz' money has come from out of state and Pac, so they are worried he is in trouble. I'm cautiously optimistic that smarmy Cruz can be defeated in Texas even if Beto is for AWB, as there are more important things to be considered and AWB isn't going to happen regardless of what anal single issue gun voters think or say. This November is to help salvage a nation, not debate AWB.
It sure shouldn't be about an AWB. I'm pretty certain even with Beto in it would have a slim chance of ever happening. But, I'm almost certain there is 3-5 percent that will vote otherwise, not necessarily for Cruz, stay out of the polls or vote a blank and fill the rest of the ballot according to their leaning. My point is simple. Talk of bans on guns loses close elections. I voted a full Democratic slate the last time except where a Democrat was not running. Hillary was not exactly pro second and I voted for her. Granted she had other minus points too. It's my belief that the Democratic Party should drop the gun control plank all together and concentrate on things that will make a difference in people's lives. The issues that many say that matter instead of gun control. So if many of us believe this, why does the party retain the gun control plank? What is the actual percentage of gun control supporters within the democratic ranks? Are they single issue voters that without a gun control plank would vote republican or something else? It is always the anti gun control people on our side that gets told we should not be single issue voters. How about those who want gun control? They should also not be single issue voters. Remove the AWB type tactic and call it root cause mitigation and violence reduction. Explain, what it is and sell it. I suspect there would be more wins in the D column in November. As is, I'm skeptical.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#53 Post by K9s » Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:36 pm

The AWB is just a wedge issue. There won't be an AWB anytime soon. If my choice was Cruz vs an unlikely AWB, I know what I would choose. The NRA propaganda holds sway here, too. We have "gun control" progressives running versus red state reps. There is no way these progressives are worse than what we have. There is also no way "gun control" happens in Georgia in the near future.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#54 Post by Bearlaker » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:04 pm

featureless wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:00 am
I have a feeling the dems will manage to fuck this up. Hope I'm wrong.
This.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#55 Post by K9s » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:54 pm

All politics is local. Vote and do your part to keep the Trumpian and/or white supremacist reps out of power at all levels of government. No big deal, right?
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#56 Post by sikacz » Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:12 pm

Bearlaker wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:04 pm
featureless wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:00 am
I have a feeling the dems will manage to fuck this up. Hope I'm wrong.
This.
Yep. They will.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#57 Post by CDFingers » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:58 pm

I want everyone to be able to recite this in their sleep: "It only matters who counts the votes, not who votes."

We have to note that the appropriations bill today, HR 6147, contained monies earmarked for the states to defend against foreign government cyber attacks on their voting systems. Every single Repub who voted, voted against it.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-con ... -bill/6147

Say, how 'bout that All-Star game, eh?!

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#58 Post by K9s » Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:05 am

Your state is where the rubber meets the road. Mine has a horrible track record. If you add in voter suppression and gerrymandering, it is going to take a HUGE blue tsunami year after year to beat back the red tide.

Demographics are on the side of the progressives, but power and money count more for now.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#59 Post by CDFingers » Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:49 am

Agent Orange is owned...

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#60 Post by featureless » Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:52 am

Reek! That's funny.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#61 Post by CDFingers » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:04 am

To the left, to the left

The average of likely voter results in recent Monmouth University polls of U.S. House races vs. the partisan lean* of the polled districts

District Partisan Lean Avg. of Likely voter results Shift Toward Dems
WV-03 R+47 D+7.5 +54.5
NJ-11 R+5 D+5.0 +10.0
CA-48 R+4 D+3.0 +7.0
OH-12** R+14 R+8.0 +6.0
VA-10 D+5 D+10.0 +5.0
PA-01 R+1 Tied +1.0

* The average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.
** Special election

Sources: Daily Kos Elections, Monmouth University
Doesn't column correctly. Better display at the site.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... the-house/

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#62 Post by highdesert » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:25 am

Trump's "genius" tariffs are just adding to his negative approval ratings in Midwest states.
In three politically important Midwest states — including two that were key in deciding the 2016 election — President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is below 40 percent, and Democrats hold a sizable lead for the upcoming congressional midterms, according to a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls.

In Michigan, which Trump won by nearly 11,000 votes, 36 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s job, while 54 percent disapprove. In Wisconsin, which he won by about 23,000 votes, another 36 percent give Trump a thumbs up, with 52 percent giving him a thumbs down. And in Minnesota, which Trump narrowly lost by 1.5 percentage points, his rating stands at 38 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. What’s more, with November’s midterm elections less than four months away, Democrats enjoy a lead in congressional preference from 8 points to 12 points in these three states.

In Michigan, 45 percent of voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 36 percent want a GOP-controlled Congress (D+9). In Minnesota, it’s 48 percent preferring the Democrats, to 36 percent backing the Republicans (D+12). And in Wisconsin, Democrats hold a 47 percent-to-39 percent lead in congressional preference (D+8)."Donald Trump carried or came very close to carrying these three states in 2016. But it's a very different picture for this fall's elections,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

In all three states — which hold competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2018 — the Democratic leads are boosted by female voters, whites with college degrees and independents (though Republicans hold a 1-point edge here in Minnesota). Republicans, meanwhile, have advantages with male voters and whites without college degrees. Also in the NBC/Marist polls — which were conducted July 15 to July 19, so mostly after Trump’s widely criticized July 16 press conference with Russia’s Vladimir Putin — majorities in all three states say their vote in November will be a message that more Democrats are needed in Congress to be a check and balance on the president.

By contrast, about a third of voters in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say their vote will be a message that more Republicans are needed to help President Trump pass his agenda. “Donald Trump's standing in each of these states casts a long shadow over the midterm elections,” Miringoff says. On the economy, about four-in-10 voters in all three states say the economy has improved and give Trump some credit for it; about a third say the economy has improved but don’t give the president credit; and about a quarter say the economy has not improved.And only about three-in-10 voters in all three states say President Trump deserves re-election in 2020.

In Michigan, just 28 percent believe he deserves re-election, while 62 percent say it’s time to give another person a chance. In Minnesota, 30 percent of voters say Trump deserves re-election, versus 60 percent who disagree. And in Wisconsin, 31 percent say the president should be re-elected, and 63 percent say he shouldn’t.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first- ... es-n894556

Trump won MI, WI and PA which won him the WH but his unpopularity in those states will hurt his party in the midterms. The "popular" tariffs could also lose Iowa for Reps in November.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#63 Post by K9s » Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:04 pm

We just finished our primaries and runoffs here.

Some really interesting ones coming up in August in other states. The NBC polls should frighten the Reps.

Repubs/Mercers/Kochs are pouring money into these races around the country. We are now seeing lots of over-the-top scare tactic negative ads here. I am not sure how that moves independent voters.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#64 Post by highdesert » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:39 pm

Voters are now 100 days away from delivering their verdict on President Donald Trump's first two years in office, and while the political landscape could shift dramatically in three months, right now, the wind is at Democrats' backs.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to wrest control of the House away from Republicans. And they need a net gain of two seats to take a Senate majority, although the path to get to that number is difficult. Trump got some welcome news on Friday, with the announcement that the economy grew at a 4.1% in the second quarter, the best number since 2014. Trump will surely make that growth part of his midterms pitch to voters. But despite a strong economy, the GOP's woes are evident in Trump's sagging approval rating and Democrats' edge in the generic congressional ballot. They're even more stark with Democratic candidates out raising Republicans in the vast majority of competitive races.

But the biggest problem for the GOP -- which has played out consistently in special elections over the last year -- is that Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic, and therefore more likely to vote in November. It has left Republicans split: Some are banking on Trump's appeal to turn out their base, while others are seeking ways to distance themselves from a President who is unpopular with moderate and independent voters and has sparked a ferocious backlash on the left. Trump has urged Republicans to focus on base issues, like immigration, which the President has hammered Democrats on for much of the year, accusing them of wanting open borders and encouraging gang violence. Democrats are laser focused on attacking the Republican health care bill and attempts to repeal Obamacare, two positions unpopular with moderate voters.

Here are five key themes to watch over the next 100 days:

Democratic performance in special elections

Democrats are fired up. A recent study from Pew Research found turnout -- particularly on the Democratic side -- has been up considerably in primaries. According to Pew, the total number of votes cast in Democratic primaries is up 84% from this point in 2014. Yes, some of that is because there have been more contested primaries, which increases turnout. But that excitement has also extended to a series of special elections. Democrat Conor Lamb won earlier this year in suburban Pittsburgh in a district Trump won by 20 points. Democrat Hiral Tipirneni came within a few points of turning blue a reliably red district in suburban Phoenix, Arizona. The result, coupled with Lamb's win and other strong Democratic special election performances, worried Republicans.

"This was not supposed to be this close," a senior Republican said when the results came in. "We really can't blame anything. We got killed among independents. It shouldn't have been this close."
Democrats have also won on the local level, too, using special elections to flip 43 seats in different state legislatures since Trump stepped into the White House. The next test will come in suburban Columbus, where Democrat Danny O'Connor is looking for a Lamb-like performance next month over Republican Troy Balderson to flip the reliably red district.

The year of the woman

Women are the most dominant force in Democratic politics -- one that crosses age, ethnic and ideological lines. The fury of the Women's March the day after Trump's inauguration has led to record numbers of female candidates. And in competitive primaries, women are winning.Among the stunners: Progressive Kara Eastman beat former Rep. Brad Ashford in a House primary in Nebraska; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ousted the No. 4 House Democrat, Rep. Joe Crowley, in New York; and Amy McGrath, a fighter pilot who bested Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, a top Democratic recruit, in a House primary in Kentucky. Many of the winners have been backed by EMILY's List, which trains and funds female Democratic candidates for office. But the trend goes much farther than who's on the ballot.

Women favor Democratic candidates for the House by a 25-point margin -- helping Democrats to a 12-point edge in the generic ballot, where those surveyed are asked whether they'd prefer a Democratic or Republican member of Congress to represent them, a Quinnipiac University poll out last week found. The shift, most drastic in suburban areas, could be insurmountable for Republicans in some districts, much like the rise of rural voters helped catapult Trump to the White House two years ago.

Trump's tariffs beget Republican fears

That brings up another issue for Republicans: Those rural voters, though, may not be as rock solid in 2018. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on countries he believes have treated the United States unfairly on trade has caused China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico to raise trade war fears and, in some cases, impose retaliatory tariffs. Those moves have shaken farms in Trump country, spreading fears that markets once seen as critical to soybean growers, pork producers and apple farmers -- to name a few -- are about to dry up. The President and his supporters have looked to tamp down on concerns, arguing that short-term pain is worth the long-term gain. But Republicans tasked with holding the House in 2018 have grown increasingly worried that trade fears could dampen otherwise good economic news. The Republican Party still dominates rural America, and there is little on the Democratic horizon to break the hold, but the fear among Republican operatives is that voters who were once animated to stand with the President will stay home in November.

Eying a shot at Trump, Democratic presidential hopefuls test road message

Ask any Democrat considering a run at Trump in 2020 about their prospects and they will say they are focused on the midterms. And that, to a degree, is true. The nearly two dozen Democrats rumored to be considering a presidential run have blanketed the country with endorsements, fundraisers and events, hoping their work impresses Democratic activists and wins favors from lawmakers they help elect. But these Democrats, like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden, to name just three, are also honing their messaging ahead of a possible run, using the midterms to road test their vision of the party they hope to lead.

"I don't talk about Clinton voters or Trump voters. I don't talk about white workers and black workers and Latino workers. I talk about workers and I talk about voters," Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, said of his party earlier this year. Sanders, for example, has used his star power to endorse liberal candidates, some of whom are not backed by the Democratic establishment. California Sen. Kamala Harris, likewise, has focused on Democrats of color, and Biden has used his claim to the Obama mantle to back Democratic heavyweights and call more in his party to reach out to Trump voters.

"The 2018 election will be a massive uphill climb," Warren said earlier this year. "And while we'd rather talk about great ideas, we can't climb that hill by ignoring the millions of Americans who are angry and scared about the damage this president and this Republican Party have done to our democracy. We can't ignore it, and we shouldn't want to ignore it." There are post-2020 factors in November's midterms, too: 36 governor's offices are on the ballot this year, including 26 for states with Republican governors. Democrats hope to pick off several of those seats, which would in many states give them the power to veto gerrymandered congressional maps. It's a technical concern, but one with ramifications for control of Congress for the next decade.

Unsettled Senate map

The most uncertainty 100 days out from the midterms is over the Senate landscape -- where many of the most competitive states are largely rural and voted for Trump in 2016. There are at least nine major battlegrounds -- with six pick-up opportunities for Republicans and three for Democrats. The most vulnerable Democrats appear to be Sens. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Bill Nelson in Florida. Montana Sen. Jon Tester and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin also have tough races on their hands. One thing most of those states have in common: They're rural, which means the fallout from Trump's trade wars is likely to hit farmers, who are largely-pro-Trump, first.

Another factor looming large in Senate races is the battle over the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Republicans see a court fight as a way to energize a turned-off base -- but with the timing of a vote uncertain, it's not clear how potent an electoral issue it will be. Democrats, meanwhile, are focused on ousting Republican Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada -- the only competitive Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 -- and winning open-seat races in Arizona and Tennessee, where former Gov. Phil Bredesen's moderate message has so far helped him appeal to Republicans and independents. One to watch: Texas, where Republican Sen. Ted Cruz faces a fundraising juggernaut in Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Polls have shown Cruz with a consistent lead, but O'Rourke raised more than $10 million largely through online, small-dollar donors in 2018's second quarter and will be able to afford what's sure to be a nasty campaign.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics ... index.html

The article is too optimistic, all politics is local it's not all about Trump.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#65 Post by K9s » Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:52 pm

I agree that all politics is local, but the negative ads we are seeing from the Reps are basically demonizing Nancy Pelosi (a little old lady), Hillary Clinton (another little old lady), and immigrants (represented by MS13). I think that the Pelosi/Clinton/MS13 ads are aimed at the base and no one else. Even in Georgia, that doesn't address local politics. It might also suppress some Rep votes and swing some independents. Pelosi and Clinton are not on the ballot in my state. I also wonder if "this Russia thing" isn't a strong motivator to some voters?

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#66 Post by BlueHunsaker » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:36 pm

As YankeeTarheel said elsewhere, the top three priorities are Turnout, Turnout and Turnout.

I haven’t had much stomach for the DNC since the November Catastrophe. But I like what Swing Left is doing.

https://swingleft.org/

Don’t be intimidated by the war, just join the local battle. Right now we have to retake the House.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#67 Post by K9s » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:49 pm

Give to local races. Find someone you like and give $5 somewhere else if your district is safe.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#68 Post by CDFingers » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:57 am

Several threads could hold this .gif. So this one gets it. It's twitter, so somehow I can't make it play here, but worth the 30 seconds.

https://twitter.com/BettyBowers/status/ ... 37/photo/1

The midterms are a referendum on your friendly neighborhood banana slug.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#69 Post by Wino » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:19 pm

You know Cruz is in trouble when he has to ask the Orange Pus Pocket to come to Texas to campaign for him. He also committed to five debates with Beto - another indicator he's in trouble. Keeping my fingers crossed that this slimebag goes down in November.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#70 Post by highdesert » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:12 am

Wino wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:19 pm
You know Cruz is in trouble when he has to ask the Orange Pus Pocket to come to Texas to campaign for him. He also committed to five debates with Beto - another indicator he's in trouble. Keeping my fingers crossed that this slimebag goes down in November.

FDT
Cruz has a lead in the polls, but not as strong as one would expect.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6310.html

Trump made a trip to OH to support the Rep candidate in a special election in a gerrymandered red district and the election held yesterday is close. Polls showed the Republican candidate had a 1% lead.
Republican candidate Troy Balderson narrowly led a closely watched special election Tuesday in an Ohio congressional district that his party has dominated for decades — a slim margin that did little to settle doubts about Republican chances in the midterm elections this fall.

With Balderson leading by about 1,700 votes, both parties eyed slightly more than 3,000 provisional ballots and perhaps as many as 5,000 absentee votes that may not be fully counted for days and could determine the final result.
While the final Ohio result remains unsettled, the takeaway for the rest of the country was clear: The district, Ohio’s 12th, was drawn to be a GOP stronghold, but Trump’s election has put it — and similar districts across the country — up for grabs.

The suburbs of Columbus, the state capital, which make up the most populous part of the district, are prime territory for the sort of Republicans who have turned against the party in the Trump era — politically moderate, college educated and affluent.

At the same time, the district’s more rural sections moved heavily toward Trump in 2016 and have stayed with him.

The result of those opposing forces was to move the district from a safe Republican area to toss-up territory. Democrats hope — and many Republican strategists fear — that similar dynamics will turn enough red seats blue this fall to end the GOP majority that has controlled the House since the 2010 election.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-p ... tory.html#

A Trump trip to Texas maybe a curse for Cruz and not a blessing, we'll see.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#71 Post by highdesert » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:31 am

Here are the remaining primary elections ...

August 11 - Hawaii; August 14 - Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont; August 21 - Alaska, Wyoming; August 28 - Arizona, Florida; September 4 - Massachusetts; September 6 - Delaware; September 11 - New Hampshire; September 12 - Rhode Island; September 13 - New York (statewide offices only); November 6 - Louisiana.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/prima ... -election/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#72 Post by YankeeTarheel » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:57 pm

Last night, yet again, in a special election, a Democrat came up a day late and a dollar short. He was outspent by 5:1 and lost by 1700 votes.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#73 Post by K9s » Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:35 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:57 pm
Last night, yet again, in a special election, a Democrat came up a day late and a dollar short. He was outspent by 5:1 and lost by 1700 votes.
Still several thousand votes to count. It ain't over 'til it's over. We'll know for sure in two weeks.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#74 Post by YankeeTarheel » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:05 pm

K9s wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:35 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:57 pm
Last night, yet again, in a special election, a Democrat came up a day late and a dollar short. He was outspent by 5:1 and lost by 1700 votes.
Still several thousand votes to count. It ain't over 'til it's over. We'll know for sure in two weeks.
Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. I hope it turns for O'Connor. I'm planning on it leaving Balderson on top. Best REAL possibility--the additional votes puts the race close enough for a mandatory recount.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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K9s
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#75 Post by K9s » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:23 pm

I agree. Whether legitimate or not, I expect Balderson to "win" the office. In fact, a close Dem loss might be a better way to turn out voters in November when the rematch occurs.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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