2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#76 Post by Wino » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:49 pm

Rematch will be interesting - work hard in the districts you lost and suck up big time to those you won - should carry the Dem to victory. Last i heard less than 1% difference. If it ends at 0.5% automatic recount.

As read elsewhere, the Orange Pus Pocket may have helped to push the rep over the hump, but he was also the reason it is so close. Gotta eke them out one a time - this is really close and ain't over yet.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#77 Post by highdesert » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:10 pm

Whatever the result of the Balderson - O'Connor contest, it will replay again in the midterm election in November.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#78 Post by ErikO » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:12 pm

St Louis won twice yesterday.

Ditched McBackstopper so MAYBE cops get to face the Gentle Mercies of the State when they kill in the state's name and Prop A died.

I fully expect that either Bell will lose to a Republican or else will morph into a Typical Prosecutor and the MO GA will decide that they will pass Right to Work Without a Union For Help again.

Former Prosecutor Claire McCaskill survived her primary opponents.

Highest midterm turn out in a while at nearly 25% of the electorate. So much hate for the jackass who caused Ferguson II and Right to Work for Less.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#79 Post by K9s » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:28 pm

And in November, the right-wingers cannot spend 5X times the amount of Dems in every race.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#80 Post by eelj » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:08 pm

Mn primaries coming up next Tues. I'm not very hopeful. Although Mn leads the turnout in Nov elections, our traditional turnout for primaries is embarrassing.

For the DFL there are multiple candidates for most positions, some will force me to vote 3rd party in Nov. Others would be great.

When we complain and most of us on this board do complain about Nov choices, we only have ourselves to complain about if we have not been active in the selection process for Nov elections.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#81 Post by K9s » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:18 pm

eelj wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:08 pm
Mn primaries coming up next Tues. I'm not very hopeful. Although Mn leads the turnout in Nov elections, our traditional turnout for primaries is embarrassing.

For the DFL there are multiple candidates for most positions, some will force me to vote 3rd party in Nov. Others would be great.

When we complain and most of us on this board do complain about Nov choices, we only have ourselves to complain about if we have not been active in the selection process for Nov elections.
Primaries are where you can actually make a difference. It doesn't always work, but it can help.
The border between civilization and savagery is porous and patrolled by opportunists. Resist fascism. Vote like your democracy depends on it.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#82 Post by highdesert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:21 pm

Nate Silver of 538 is out with his 2018 midterm House forecast. As new polls come out it will be updated. At this time Democrats have a 74.6% chance of winning control of the House, Republicans have a 25.4% chance of retaining it.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ast/house/
As compared with the presidential model, the House model is less polling-centric. Instead, it uses a broader consensus of indicators. That’s partly out of necessity: House districts don’t get much polling, and the polling they do get often isn’t much good. It’s also partly out of opportunity: With 435 separate races every other year, it’s possible to make fairly robust empirical assessments of which factors really predict House races well and which don’t.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/20 ... thodology/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#83 Post by eelj » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:14 pm

Losing control of one or both houses of congress in the mid terms of a first term admin is quite common. But this time around if the dems do not win a decisive victory that is humiliating to the gop it will be a failure.

If there is not record numbers showing up at the polls then they will have failed to listen to what we expect from them.

So far I'm not hearing much from them that I believe will bring people in great numbers to the polls.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#84 Post by highdesert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:56 pm

eelj wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:14 pm
Losing control of one or both houses of congress in the mid terms of a first term admin is quite common. But this time around if the dems do not win a decisive victory that is humiliating to the gop it will be a failure.

If there is not record numbers showing up at the polls then they will have failed to listen to what we expect from them.

So far I'm not hearing much from them that I believe will bring people in great numbers to the polls.
American voters don't like one party dominating Washington, yes it's not unusual for an administration to lose one or both chambers. Yes, turnout will be key, traditionally older more reliable Republican voters are the backbone of midterm elections.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#85 Post by highdesert » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:51 pm

There are two months until the midterm elections in November and Democrats still have a narrow path to the Senate majority despite a map that favors Republicans and includes 10 Democratic incumbents running in states President Donald Trump won, five of them by double-digit margins. The President carried Indiana and Missouri by 19 points each, but a pair of new polls released this week by NBC News/Marist show Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill waging competitive re-election fights. In a two-way contest, Donnelly leads Republican Mike Braun 49% to 43% in the Hoosier State, while McCaskill and Josh Hawley are locked in a dead heat -- each with 47% -- in the Show Me State.

Another prime target for Republicans is Florida, where Quinnipiac University found Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott running even with 49% each after some $37 million in television ads -- roughly half of that by Scott's campaign. The Blue Wall of Great Lakes states that Trump toppled in November 2016 so far looks to be holding for Democrats in 2018. Sens. Bob Casey (Pennsylvania), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Debbie Stabenow (Michigan) and Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) are all favorites for re-election. Of that group, Baldwin appears to have the toughest race, facing a challenge from conservative state Sen. Leah Vukmir. To be sure, the deep red states where Democratic incumbents are hoping to hang on may play to type and keep the majority out of reach for the party. But if a blue wave crests higher than expected, it could lift Democrats in states that would be all but lost in a more neutral environment.

Democrats are on offense in Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points and where Rep. Jacky Rosen is now challenging GOP Sen. Dean Heller. The Battle Born State could be ground zero for the health care debate this cycle, with Rosen aggressively attacking Heller's support for the GOP's effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Republicans breathed a sigh of relief late last month when GOP Rep. Martha McSally emerged from a tough primary contest in Arizona with a convincing victory against conservative firebrands Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. But McSally's shift to the right during the nominating fight, particularly on immigration, could pose a challenge in the general against Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who entered the general election largely unscathed.

The list of Democratic targets this cycle has doubled, with a pair of red states -- Tennessee and Texas -- looking increasingly competitive. With the Senate currently split 51-49 in favor of Republicans, if Democrats were able to win either of those contests -- assuming they also flip Arizona and Nevada -- it would mean the party could afford to see one of its incumbents defeated and still preserve a path to the majority. In Tennessee, former two-term Gov. Phil Bredesen is running a methodical campaign against GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn by focusing on local issues and emphasizing his own moderate brand of politics over that of the national Democratic Party. That strategy seems to be working to his point, with an NBC News/Marist poll released Thursday showing Bredesen and Blackburn running neck and neck -- 48% to 46% -- among likely voters.

Bredesen's standing is buoyed by his popularity -- 61% of likely voters have a favorable view of the Democrat versus 22% who hold a negative view of him. By comparison, 46% of likely voters view Blackburn favorably compared with 36% who do not. When it comes to the President, 47% approve of his job performance while 43% disapprove. Blackburn, a staunch ally of the President, is making the argument that electing Bredesen could give Democrats control of the Senate -- a persuasive message in a state that went for Trump by 26 points. Bredesen has pledged to work with the President when he proposes policies that benefit Tennessee, declaring at the start of his campaign he was not "running against" Trump.

Republicans are sending the cavalry to Texas for Sen. Ted Cruz, with the President announcing he'll do an October rally for his former 2016 GOP primary rival, and the political arm of the Club for Growth launching a seven-figure television ad campaign to hammer Cruz's Democratic opponent, Rep. Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke has been a fundraising phenom, more than doubling Cruz in the second quarter and leading the GOP incumbent in cash on hand by almost $5 million. Polls show O'Rourke within striking distance of Cruz. The latest NBC News/Marist survey showed the race at 49% to 45% in Cruz's favor. For Democrats, the path to victory in the Lone Star State has been elusive. The party's last statewide win came in 1994. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate was 1988. Clinton lost the state by nine points -- an improvement on Mitt Romney's 16-point margin over Barack Obama in 2012. Having tapped into the Democrats' enthusiasm edge, O'Rourke appears poised to narrow the gap even more this year.

West Virginia should be at or near the top of the GOP's targets this cycle based on Trump's 42-point margin there in 2016. The President has also visited the Mountaineer State six times since taking office. The difficulty for Republicans is they are running against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, a popular two-term governor who has demonstrated a willingness to buck his party and support the President's policies and nominees. He voted for Trump's first Supreme Court selection, Neil Gorsuch, and has signaled he's open to supporting Brett Kavanaugh, saying Wednesday he has not seen anything disqualifying from the nominee during this week's Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. Manchin also has demonstrated he can win in a less-than-ideal environment, receiving 61% of the vote in 2012 even as Romney carried the state with 62% support.

Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey, the state's attorney general, has faced questions about his fundraising ability and Manchin has a six-to-one cash advantage. Morrisey only recently launched his first television ad, a biographical spot that features praise from the President and highlights his legal challenge to environmental regulations implemented by the Obama administration. That comes after Democratic outside groups have spent the summer pummeling Morrisey on TV over his work as a "DC lobbyist" for pharmaceutical companies and his decision to join a lawsuit challenging the ACA, a move that could lead to protections for pre-existing conditions being struck down. That line of attack could resonate in West Virginia, which at 36% has the highest rate of adults under 65 with pre-existing conditions, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation study in 2016.

One state where Republicans are increasingly bullish about their chances is North Dakota, where GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer is challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in a state the President carried by 36 points. Trump was personally involved in the effort to recruit Cramer into the race and stumped for the three-term GOP lawmaker Friday night in Fargo. For a while it appeared Heitkamp was Trump's favorite Senate Democrat. The President praised her as a "good woman" during a September 2017 event in the Peace Garden State and invited her to the White House in May for the signing of a bank deregulation bill she co-sponsored. Now it seems the President is all-in for Cramer. "You need a senator who doesn't just talk like they're from North Dakota, but votes like they're from North Dakota. That's what you need, and that's Kevin Cramer," Trump said during a Fargo rally in late June.

Heitkamp should be able to keep the race close because of her strong personal brand and resource advantage -- leading Cramer $5.2 to $2.4 million in cash on hand. Cramer's bottom line should get a boost thanks to the President's visit, which his campaign says raised over $1 million. Democrats are attacking Cramer on health care, accusing him of voting to strip protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and trade policy, a particularly acute concern in agriculture-rich North Dakota. Republicans, meanwhile, are targeting Heitkamp on hot-button issues such as abortion and so-called sanctuary cities, as well as her vote against the GOP tax cuts. Given Trump's popularity in the state, Cramer's unwavering support for the President could be a more potent pitch to voters than Heitkamp's message of moderation. The national environment this year favors Democrats, but North Dakota is very much Trump country -- and Cramer is Trump's candidate.

It's been nearly 50 years since New Jersey voters elected a Republican to the Senate.
Bob Hugin is a longshot to break that streak, but the pharmaceutical executive is giving Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez a serious challenge in the Garden State. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Hugin trailing Menendez by six points in a state Clinton won by 14 points in 2016 and Obama carried by 17 points four years earlier. The federal corruption trial involving Menendez ended last November in a mistrial, but an ethical cloud continues to hang over the Democrat. Nearly half of New Jersey voters say Menendez was involved in serious wrongdoing, including 38% of Democrats. Democratic primary voters in the state delivered a clear message to Menendez in June when little-known challenger Lisa McCormick drew 38% of the vote against the two-term incumbent. Still, Menendez received more votes than were cast in the GOP primary, which Hugin won with 75% support. Hugin has loaned his campaign more than $15 million and has spent more than $7 million on television ads to boost his candidacy. Menendez has been saving his resources -- holding about $6.4 million cash on hand. He's also getting a little help from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which recently teamed with Menendez on a joint television ad buy. Democrats feel confident Menendez's numbers will improve once he hits the airwaves. He also stands to benefit from several competitive House races in a state where Democrats have strong recruits.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/09/politics ... index.html
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#86 Post by Bardo » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:01 pm

State of oh 1 - more dem signs out early in moderate dem area of district. Very few pube signs even in burbs that are heavy and reliable pube. Havent been to hard right area in county north....the gerrymandered area.

Heavy amounts of anti-dem TV ads and phone calls. Tells me pubes are doing internal polling and are worried.

So more dem support than usual early in season. Very noticable lack of pube signs even when there are ones for other local seats. Very very few trump stickers anywhere. Thats unique.
Last edited by Bardo on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#87 Post by Bardo » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 pm

Past few days 20+ dem signs have popped up on my regular route. Zero repube signs (usually a sea of them)

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#88 Post by CDFingers » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:45 am

"Everybody knows" that Repubs who still support the current stain will be voted out.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#89 Post by Wino » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am

The Canadian born Cuban that carpetbagged to Texas is running scared. His ads against Beto are truly misleading bullshit. The Puke is coming to Texas to rally for him and Rafael is still saying he agrees to 5 debates, but keeps moving goal posts. If Beto wins, I may not sober up for weeks!!! LOL
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#90 Post by K9s » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:16 am

GOP is going all-in with voter suppression. Negative ads and "investigations" (scare tactics). That usually works, but we shall see.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#91 Post by Wino » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:21 pm

I'm getting excited - just 5 weeks to first day of early voting Oct. 22 !! I'll be there early.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#92 Post by highdesert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:28 pm

K9s wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:16 am
GOP is going all-in with voter suppression. Negative ads and "investigations" (scare tactics). That usually works, but we shall see.
Republicans in Congress also rolled out a tax cut 2.0 to try to entice Republican voters to get out and vote.
And in your neck of the woods, there will be a redo in one of the state legislative districts because wrong ballots were given out. Hanky panky?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/10/politics ... index.html
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#93 Post by K9s » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:47 pm

highdesert wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:28 pm
K9s wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:16 am
GOP is going all-in with voter suppression. Negative ads and "investigations" (scare tactics). That usually works, but we shall see.
Republicans in Congress also rolled out a tax cut 2.0 to try to entice Republican voters to get out and vote.
And in your neck of the woods, there will be a redo in one of the state legislative districts because wrong ballots were given out. Hanky panky?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/10/politics ... index.html
All kinds of crazy stuff going on here. Voters getting the wrong ballots in primaries. Court case right now about moving to paper ballots for November.

The guy in charge of elections (Kemp) is running for Gov against his arch-nemesis (Abrams). Everything about Kemp's voter suppression and electoral incompetence is being brought out into the open. Most of it has been known. Kemp has always been a Kobach-style voter suppressor and Abrams has been a champion of voting rights. This election is FINALLY not two white people running for Governor who claim to be a little different from each other. Whatever happens, the choices are very stark all over the South. People finally have a reason to vote in GA, FL, and MS.
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#94 Post by highdesert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:01 pm

It looks like Democrats will win the House but there are three tossup races for the Senate - Heller vs Rosen [NV]/ Nelson vs Scott [FL]/ and McCaskill vs Hawley [MO] per 538. The website "270 to Win" shows more states in play which are in beige. It's interactive so you can change the party by clicking through the colors. The challenge is getting above 50/50 where Pence can break the tie.
https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

538s forecast on the Senate, they show NV, MO and FL as tossup states.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... te/#deluxe
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#95 Post by YankeeTarheel » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:02 pm

I'm hoping Rethugs are stylin', hoping they can scam their way, one more time, through another election. While Heidi Heidkemp may lose, I think she's going to close the gap rapidly in the next 4 weeks and that women and men who really respect them are going to take her "No" on Bratt to heart as her opponent plays lout and MCP to the hilt. I think Dems will take the House much more easily than the polls say. After all, if 60% of Dems vote, and 60% of GOPs vote, Dems win, easily.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#96 Post by CDFingers » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:52 am

I read fivethirtyeight every day.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#97 Post by Bardo » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:49 pm

some democratic signs have been taken down and replaced with nothing. republican v democrat sign volumes typical ~10:1 pube. No blue wave, no pickup for dems in this swing district of a swing state. latest polls reflect exactly what yard signs show..... pubes +9. little to no enthusiasm problem on the right, in fact it's on the left.

as polls have always shown turnip and the band of thugs can do no wrong in their bases eyes....except maybe be easy on or compromise with dems.

expect very slight dem gains in november at very best. house likely not quite tipped.

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#98 Post by highdesert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:57 pm

Democrats have dominated the generic poll all of 2018 [that is a question such as "if the election was held today what party do you want controlling Congress"], though the percentage has gone up and down it's always Democrats. The only poll I discount is Rasmussen. Democrats have been going back up - a Kavanaugh effect?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... house-race

Another important office is state governors and it looks like Democrats are on track to pick up a number of governorships putting them in a good place for the 2020/2021 reapportionment battles in states. It looks like Colorado will have the first elected gay governor, Congressman Jared Polis - 7 points ahead in a September poll and 11 points ahead in an October poll.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-governor- ... edictions/
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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#99 Post by Bardo » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:26 pm

Dont discount rasmussen in 538 terms, cause they actually were spot on in 2016

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Re: 2018 Midterms - what the polls are showing

#100 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:26 pm

Very depressing how YET AGAIN, Democrats, who have a clear plurality, if not a majority throughout the nation STILL find new and innovative ways to lose, as well the good old ones!
I blame the senile, moribund, lost-their-way-and-their-morals leadership.

If you don't stand for something, you'll stand for anything! And they do. More near-sighted than I am without my glasses. So narrow focused a horse with blinders on has a more panoramic vision.
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