Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

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Eris
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Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#1 Post by Eris » Thu May 24, 2018 12:44 pm

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/22 ... ts-who-won
Democratic voters made some history of their own. And it wasn't pretty.

As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, just 415,000 Democrats had cast ballots in the gubernatorial runoff. For reference, that's a decline of almost 60 percent from the 1 million Texans who cast ballots in the March Democratic primary.

That's the largest primary-to-runoff decline — and the smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920. That year, 449,000 Democrats voted, according to Texas Election Source's analysis of Texas State Historical Association data.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#2 Post by highdesert » Thu May 24, 2018 1:30 pm

Eris wrote:
Thu May 24, 2018 12:44 pm
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/22 ... ts-who-won
Democratic voters made some history of their own. And it wasn't pretty.

As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, just 415,000 Democrats had cast ballots in the gubernatorial runoff. For reference, that's a decline of almost 60 percent from the 1 million Texans who cast ballots in the March Democratic primary.

That's the largest primary-to-runoff decline — and the smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920. That year, 449,000 Democrats voted, according to Texas Election Source's analysis of Texas State Historical Association data.
It might just have been that particular office, in other races voters seemed motivated. I've already voted in CA and I wasn't impressed with many of the candidates for statewide office so I focused on the Legislature and Congress.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#3 Post by Wino » Mon May 28, 2018 12:19 am

Was a fairly lackluster runoff for Dem governor and expect either would be loser to Abbott, sadly. Lupe Valdez (winner) has already hit a snag with owing $12K in back taxes and expect it's down hill from there. Personally thought White had a better chance against Abbott, but the piss poor turnout is a sign of despair in that particular race.

Hoping O'Rourke has a fighting chance against the smarmy Ted Cruz.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#4 Post by spara » Mon May 28, 2018 7:11 pm

The Democratic party's only role in Texas is to hand over the check from fund raising when the DNC rolls into town and to throw a little brown color into their lily white membership when mumbling about 'waking the sleeping giant'

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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#5 Post by K9s » Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:08 pm

spara wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 7:11 pm
The Democratic party's only role in Texas is to hand over the check from fund raising when the DNC rolls into town and to throw a little brown color into their lily white membership when mumbling about 'waking the sleeping giant'
It isn't like Dems could actually take out many republicans in Texas with a blue wave. Like Georgia, the real impact will be down-ballot (school boards, etc.) and that can be important. For example, my county has never had a minority school board member but the county is majority-minority with 70% non-white school children. A blue wave here won't move statewide or national races, but minorities might actually get some representation.

It is easy to complain about Dems when you actually have some in office. I wish I had that problem! :lol:
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#6 Post by K9s » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:29 pm

Is Trump going to be campaigning for Cruz over there in TX? Just wondering if those two kissed and made up yet.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#7 Post by Wino » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:08 am

Puke and Cruz say yes he will come help save Teddy.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#8 Post by highdesert » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:11 am

Interesting analysis of the Cruz - O'Rourke race from 538.
Expert ratings, such as those provided by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have a track record of accuracy in forecasting elections, and all three have pinned the race as either “lean Republican” or “likely Republican,” meaning Cruz is favored but they believe O’Rourke has a shot to at least make the race competitive. Moreover, O’Rourke, a three-term congressman, has pulled far ahead of Cruz in the fundraising race. According to the Texas Tribune’s analysis of Federal Election Commission data, Cruz raised $15.6 million from the start of 2017 through July; O’Rourke pulled in a whopping $23.6 million. That sum makes O’Rourke’s campaign the third-biggest fundraiser among all Senate candidates this election cycle, according to Open Secrets, a nonpartisan research group that traces money in politics.

O’Rourke also has the potential to gain ground by improving his name recognition in the next two months. The Emerson poll found both candidates with similar favorability ratings, but 38 percent of Texans either felt neutral toward O’Rourke or said they had not heard of him, compared to only 19 percent who said the same about Cruz. In a national environment where the generic ballot favors Democrats and Congress’s approval ratings remain low, incumbency may not be as much of an advantage for Republicans as it has been in some other years. This suggests that as O’Rourke becomes more familiar to voters in the next couple of months, he may have more potential to win over undecided voters than Cruz does.

Still, not a single poll so far has shown O’Rourke ahead of Cruz. So don’t make any serious bets just yet — it’s still too early to get carried away with speculating about big changes in Texas based on August polling alone.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... really-in/
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#9 Post by K9s » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:49 pm

I have to agree with that 538 article. While TX, FL, and GA have some really good chances for the first time in a long time, it is a safe bet to assume they will all stay with the right-wing. The only saving grace for FL & GA are that the race is actually a real Trump/alt-reich versus true progressive at the top of the ticket. That will help bring out record voting numbers. For the first time in a long time, a lot of people actually feel a sense of hope.

Cruz is a master of propaganda & lies. He spews hatred and venom and lies (like Kemp & DeSantis), but I don't know if O'Rourke has the support to get out the vote on the Dem side. At some point, the voter suppression and propaganda may not favor Cruz in TX. I am not sure it is time. I hope it is, but I just don't know.
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#10 Post by Wino » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:31 pm

If Beto were to win, I might just take up religion. :sarcasm:
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Re: Blue Wave my be fizzling in Texas

#11 Post by eelj » Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:22 pm

If trump resigns I don't believe cruz will be a senator anymore. I'm guessing he is at the top of the list as pences VP.

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