Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

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Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#1 Post by highdesert » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:30 am

With the midterm election now four weeks away and the fight over Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation receding into the past, President Trump and his party have embarked on an effort to keep conservative anger fresh, even at the potential cost of further alienating some women voters. The approach reflects a judgment that with an energized Republican base, the party has a chance now to lock down key races for the Senate, protecting its majority there. If the necessary tactics drive some House races more firmly into Democratic hands — increasing the odds that Republicans lose control of that chamber — that’s a risk the party appears increasingly willing to run.
Trump last week lashed out at Kavanaugh’s main accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, over her inability to recall some details of the evening more than three decades ago during which she says Kavanaugh assaulted her. Until Monday, however, the president had stopped short of calling the account fraudulent, sticking with a Republican strategy of trying to avoid overt attacks on Ford that could drive away women voters.

As Trump shifted to a harder-edged approach, so too did some Republican Senate candidates. In Missouri, for example, state Atty. Gen. Josh Hawley, who has made his support for Kavanaugh a major part of his campaign against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, said in a call with reporters that he agreed with Trump “that this process was a sham, and it was a disgrace.” “It’s a very scary time for the rule of law,” Hawley said.

Over the weekend, Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, running against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, criticized the #MeToo movement, labeling it in an interview with the New York Times as a “movement toward victimization.” Those sorts of comments could increase the anger of women who feel that Republicans in the Kavanaugh fight belittled the experience of sexual assault victims, said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg.

The GOP strategy involves “significant risk,” Greenberg said. “Anything that boosts women’s turnout just strikes me as really, really bad for them,” she added. “At the House level, it’s a huge problem for them.” Republican strategists say they see less downside. Democratic voters “are already at a 10” in intensity, said veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. “They can’t go to 20. They can’t vote twice.” In any case, Republicans may see the risk as justified if it prolongs the current trend of higher levels of interest in the election on the part of their voters. “The Kavanaugh hearings polarized rather than shifted opinion,” said Charles Franklin, a professor at Marquette University in Milwaukee and a longtime polling expert. “In other words, both favorable and unfavorable views increased,” he wrote in an email. “On balance, I think that helps Republicans, who had shown some signs of a weakening embrace of Trump,” he added. The problem for Republicans is that the impact of such events tends to fade quickly. “In the current news cycle speed, it is remarkable that the court nomination held center stage, dominating news, for two whole weeks,” Franklin said. “It has been rare this year for an issue or event to dominate for two whole days.”

The Republican strategy of maximizing party turnout could pay off in the conservative states in which key Senate races are being fought this year, said Mike Murphy, the longtime Republican strategist who now serves as co-director of USC’s Center for the Political Future. “In states where you have a strong red advantage, playing red doesn’t hurt,” Murphy said. That approach, however, has fewer benefits in less solidly Republican areas because it has little appeal to independent voters, Murphy added. In those areas, “the idea that if both sides turn out, we’ll win by an inch” doesn’t work because “the coalition of Democrats and independents is a bigger group of people.” The GOP may have little choice, however, given Trump’s deeply ingrained approach to political fights, added Murphy, who is a persistent critic of the president. “Trump only has one strategy, whatever the occasion, which is to appeal to Republican primary voters,” he said.

The reason the Kavanaugh issue potentially could help Republicans in the contest for the Senate, but hurt them in House races, involves the very different contours of the fight over each chamber. In the House, where Democrats need to add 23 seats to their current total to gain the majority, the most contested races mostly are taking place in suburban districts where college-educated white women have turned heavily against Trump. Nearly 70 House districts around the country are up for grabs this year, and the vast majority of them are held by Republicans. That gives Democrats a long list of targets. Nationwide, women in the most contested House districts favor the Democratic candidate by 54% to 40%, while men split much more evenly, favoring Republicans 51% to 46%, according to a new poll of 69 battleground House districts released Monday by the Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University in Virginia. Trump carried 48 of those 69 districts in 2016, but today voters in those districts who disapprove of his performance in office outnumber those who approve, 51% to 43%, with 47% strongly disapproving of him, the poll found.

By contrast — and by Republicans’ luck of the draw — control of the Senate mostly turns on states where Trump supporters outnumber opponents, including North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, where incumbent Democratic senators face difficult contests, and Montana and West Virginia, where Democratic incumbents have remained in the lead despite the conservative leanings of the states’ voters, according to recent polls. In several of those Senate races, the Kavanaugh hearings probably improved Republican chances by “accelerating the process” of people “getting back to their partisan corners,” said Mark Mellman, a longtime Democratic pollster. The Kavanaugh fight “moved voters on the center and left toward the Democrats, but moved the center and right toward the Republicans,” he said. Strategists in both parties say that despite the improvement in Republican voters’ enthusiasm over the last couple weeks, Democrats continue to hold an advantage in the House, with a good chance of picking up a net of 35 or more seats.

But that outcome is far from certain — most of the contests remain very close. In the five most hotly contested Southern California districts, for example, recent polls for The Times by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found only one in which the Democratic candidate had a clear lead. In two others, the Democrat had an advantage that was within the poll’s margin of error while the remaining two were dead heats. The Republican strategy in those districts for most of the last year was to try to focus on local issues and the national economy, avoid a referendum on Trump and hope that independent voters who have often sided with the GOP will return to the fold, despite their antipathy toward the president. Trump has repeatedly gotten in the way of that effort, and a focus on keeping live the partisan feelings about Kavanaugh probably would continue to prevent it. For now, the battle over Kavanaugh has noticeably increased Republican interest in the election, which should pay off in higher turnout, Newhouse said.

“There’s been a big intensity gap, now it’s even,” he said. But, he added, “The problem is, we’re 29 days out. There are several political lifetimes between now and then.”
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-p ... story.html
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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#2 Post by Bucolic » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:05 pm

If I ran a network, I would show this as a PSA over and over again.

Have you seen this? She’s pretty smart and plays a ukulele.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2OBaE_ ... ture=share


Neverthless, she persisted.

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#3 Post by Bisbee » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:50 pm

What a great song, Bucolic!

Makes me realize just how much I feel bad for Kavanaugh's two daughters... they gonna grow up and go to college and live the same lives that this girl describe for women in the United States. The only difference is they will have to go home and look their Dad (and Mom!) in the eye after all that came out. They will have to answer the same questions over and over again when other friends discover who their father is.

"Kavanaugh... Hm, your Dad ain't a judge is he?"
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#4 Post by Bucolic » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:36 pm

Yeah, it will be tough for them but I assume they will go to all the”safe” schools. Hopefully, they will learn to say no and how to protect themselves.

In the meantime, I have sent it to my daughters and friends with daughters and sons. I hope it goes viral.


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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#5 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:11 am

That great ! Very talented young lady. Hope it goes viral, thanks for posting it.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#6 Post by Bisbee » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:09 pm

The video was picked up by Good Morning America and has indeed gone viral.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/woman-sings-m ... ories.html
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#7 Post by highdesert » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:55 pm

Bisbee wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:09 pm
The video was picked up by Good Morning America and has indeed gone viral.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/woman-sings-m ... ories.html
:clap2:

The British tabloid the "Daily Mail" also picked it up along with the lyrics.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/arti ... en-US.html

A Scary Time by Lynzy Lab Stewart

I can’t walk to my car late at night while on the phone
I can’t open up my windows when I’m home alone
I can’t go to a bar without a chaperone
I can’t wear a mini skirt if it’s the only one I own


I can’t use public transportation after 7 pm
I can’t be brutally-honest when you slide into my DMs
I can’t go to the club just to dance with my friends
And I can’t ever leave my drink unattended

But it sure is a scary time for boys
Yeah gentlemen! Band together, make some noise
It's really tough when your reputation’s on the line
And any woman you’ve assaulted could turn up anytime

Yeah, it sure is a scary time for guys
Can’t speak to any woman or look her in the eyes
It’s so confusing, is it rape or is it just being nice?
So inconvenient that you even have to think twice

I can’t live in an apartment if it's on the first floor
I can’t be wearing silk pajamas when I answer the door
I can’t have another drink even if I want more
I can’t make you feel invalid, unseen, or ignored

I can’t jog around the city with headphones on my ears
I can’t speak out against my rapist after 35 years
I can’t be taken seriously if I’m holding back tears
And I can’t ever speak earnestly about all my fears

‘Cause it sure is a scary time for dudes
Can’t text a girl repeatedly asking for nudes
Can’t make a girl have sex when she’s not in the mood
And what gives her the right to give you attitude?

Yeah, it sure is a scary time for men
Girls like to act like you’re to blame and they’re the victim
Her dress was short and she was drunk, she’s not so innocent
Thank god your dad’s the judge and you won’t be convicted

Oh...that’s right…oh yeah, cause -

It’s not such a scary time for boys
They’ve always had the upper hand, they’ve always had a choice
It’s time for women to rise up,
Use our collective voice

The day to vote’s November 6th, so let’s go make some noise
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#8 Post by K9s » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:15 pm

I am around a TON of ReTrumplicans here. I have never heard one word about this so-called Kav bump. It is just BS. Not sure why so many media sources bought into such BS. All it did was allow the "undecided" voters here to reveal to pollsters that they are ReTrumplican voters. No surprise here.

ReTrumplicans claim that any bumbling loss is really a win. They lie about a lot of stuff. It is just frightening.
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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#9 Post by GeorgiaRN » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:53 am

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ing-rape-/

Well I think it may now have a bigger impact on the election that first thought. Between this and Asia Argento's firing from the X Factor Italia, I would say it definitely does not look good for the Metoo movement.
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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#10 Post by AndyH » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:05 am

GeorgiaRN wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:53 am
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ing-rape-/

Well I think it may now have a bigger impact on the election that first thought. Between this and Asia Argento's firing from the X Factor Italia, I would say it definitely does not look good for the Metoo movement.
A couple of nut cases don't even come close to the numbers of people raped, harassed, or more. They're not going to be swept under the rug and they shouldn't be.
“There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.” Heinlein
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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#11 Post by YankeeTarheel » Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:29 am

AndyH wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:05 am
GeorgiaRN wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:53 am
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ing-rape-/

Well I think it may now have a bigger impact on the election that first thought. Between this and Asia Argento's firing from the X Factor Italia, I would say it definitely does not look good for the Metoo movement.
A couple of nut cases don't even come close to the numbers of people raped, harassed, or more. They're not going to be swept under the rug and they shouldn't be.
One nut-case de-legitimizes 1,000 women actually harassed, assaulted, and raped. Scurrilous.

I'll bet every one of us knows at least 5 women who have experienced one or more of these three attacks.

I've known 3 women raped by strangers, one date-raped in college. Another by her FATHER, and a 6th by "the nice man down the street".
My mother was attacked at 20 and broke the asshole's nose (she was a tall, strong woman). He was "a friend" of her boss.
My wife had a creep at work whisper something about her breasts at a company function. Her boss willingly started the process to get him fired, but it took far too long, and only happened because it was the last of a long string of complaints.

For every liar, there are a 1000 true stories.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: Post-Kavanaugh and midterm elections

#12 Post by AndyH » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:08 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:29 am
For every liar, there are a 1000 true stories.
Yup.

Seems the sorts of cognitive dissonance that impairs understanding science might be bleeding into other areas of the human experience.

“There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.” Heinlein
You can’t take the Razorback! She is gone and gone and gone!

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