Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

So many executive orders, so much twitter. What to do? Well, discuss it here for one...

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Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#1 Post by highdesert » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:10 am

Theresa May, the UK prime minister signed a Brexit deal with the EU which EU heads of government ratified in November. Since then there is a wall of opposition in the Parliament - a large number of Conservative MPs are opposed, Northern Ireland's DUP party that props up her government are opposed, the Liberal Democratic MPs are opposed and so is the Labour Party. Though May promised Parliament that she would share her Attorney General's advice on the agreement she backed away. Last week her government was defeated in three votes in the Commons, one was a Contempt of Parliament action for refusing to share the AG's advice to ministers. The vote on the Brexit agreement was supposed to have been tomorrow, but May announced today that it has been canceled. In spite of intense politicking of MPs, she knows she'd lose and that would probably end her career as pm. Unless it is extended, the UK will exit on 3/29/19 and without an agreement, customs and border checks go up including in Ireland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46318565

Of course Donnie Dunce made his opinion known, he's against it.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#2 Post by Wino » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:06 pm

I'm confused - I thought Stain was for Brexit - or is that what you meant??
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#3 Post by TrueTexan » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:07 pm

Bet he supports a wall between Northern Ireland and Ireland. He will even tell Theresa May how to build it and get the EU to pay for it.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#4 Post by highdesert » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:35 pm

Wino wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:06 pm
I'm confused - I thought Stain was for Brexit - or is that what you meant??
Yea, Donnie Dunce has been for Brexit from the beginning, he keeps hinting that the UK will get great trade deals from the US once they are done with the EU. His good buddy is Nigel Farage was formerly head of the UK Independence Party. This has been fun to watch, we get debate in the US Senate but the House is a rubber stamp. Our presidents never have to be questioned openly in the House or Senate - Theresa May had to defend her agreement in the House and take questions, Donnie would never survive it.

Donnie would probably be for a wall in the middle of the English Channel.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#5 Post by highdesert » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:22 pm

The US stock market takes a 500 point dive, this report says it's because of Brexit. The UK currency the pound sterling took a dive to 2017 levels. The US stock market is emotional, think it's a lot of things gone wrong including Huawei, Trump tariffs and....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... 95429ad211
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#6 Post by highdesert » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:39 am

Backbench Conservative Party MPs have triggered a "no confidence" vote in their leader Theresa May over her Brexit deal with the EU. So between 6 pm and 8 pm (GMT) today, Conservative MPs will be voting - if May fails to get 158 votes she's out and resigns as leader and prime minister. Even if her margin is very slim she'll probably also resign. It's not a vote of no confidence in the government that would spark an election and involve all political parties, this is just the Conservative Party.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#7 Post by atxgunguy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:20 am

The GBP has lost 5 cents on the dollar in the last month and it's not looking like it's going to stop there.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#8 Post by highdesert » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:27 pm

atxgunguy wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:20 am
The GBP has lost 5 cents on the dollar in the last month and it's not looking like it's going to stop there.
Sterling started diving when it became clear that May would never get her Brexit agreement through either chamber of parliament. I agree, it'll keep going down as long as there is unease. She's been making a tour of EU heads of governments and everyone is saying the same thing, no renegotiation. We'll know by early afternoon if May survived and if she's damaged. A friend made some money in the markets betting back in 2016 that the UK would vote to leave the EU, he made a tidy profit.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#9 Post by featureless » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:37 pm

All kinds of crazy going on between Brexit, France's yellow vests, Brazil's fascist and our very own orange menace. It's enough to make one lose sleep...

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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#10 Post by atxgunguy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:01 pm

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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#11 Post by highdesert » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:20 pm

:roflmao: Great maps atxgunguy! The lasting effects of mad cow disease, prions in the blood. The Old World (UK) has an active democracy, the New World (US) seems fossilized.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#12 Post by TrueTexan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:32 pm

When the UK joined the EU it was a halfhearted decision at best. The thing that shows this the most when they refused to give up the Pound Currency and go with the Euro.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#13 Post by highdesert » Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:11 am

TrueTexan wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:32 pm
When the UK joined the EU it was a halfhearted decision at best. The thing that shows this the most when they refused to give up the Pound Currency and go with the Euro.
I agree and they got other exceptions to EU treaties. There has always been those on the right that yearned for the old empire and never saw the UK as part of Europe. Theresa May survived the vote of no confidence in her leadership but she's damaged - she won 200 votes of her party MPs but lost 117 or over a third of Conservative MPs. If the EU refuses to renegotiate then the UK could just walk away from the EU in 2019 without a treaty, more dangerous for them than for the EU.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#14 Post by sikacz » Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:41 am

Personally I would like to see a few other countries pull away from the EU, especially Finland.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#15 Post by YankeeTarheel » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:16 am

sikacz wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:41 am
Personally I would like to see a few other countries pull away from the EU, especially Finland.
I totally disagree. But Poland and Hungary need to be expelled if they keep violating that basic principle of EU membership: That of being a true democratic republic. Greece was an associate member of the EEU, but in 1967 was expelled because of the Junta. Spain was denied membership until well after Franco died, as was Portugal because they were dictatorships.

The EU and its predecessors, the 3 European Communities, the EEU, ECSC, and EurAtom, have kept the peace for over 70 years among members that have been regularly been at war with each other for millennia.
The problem isn't the Union, it's how the Union is organized. It tries to be both a Federation and a Confederation. Imagine if the USA could only change or make a law if all 50 state governments agreed to it! Think it's bad now?
This was, in fact, why the ORIGINAL USA, under the Articles of Confederation, failed. Confederations are basically at the mercy of their members.

Europe, because of its original organization, when there were only 6 members: France, Italy, West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, allowed veto powers to all 6. Even when the UK, Ireland and Denmark joined in 1972, it was still plausible, barely, with 9.

The EU and the previous communities, were ALWAYS seen as a threat to Moscow, and the Soviets were always trying to split them up. That hasn't changed with the fall of the USSR, although had more former Soviet state, including Russia, fully embraced Western-Style Democracy, they might WELL have been welcomed into the EU, as were the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia. So were Poland and Hungary, the real problem children.

Brexit is so fucking stupid it's hard to imagine--like America electing a lying, raping, grifting, tax-evading sociopath. Brexiters labored under the fantasy they could escape Brussels, yet still keep all the bennies of EU membership, and their leaders fed that fantasy knowing full well it was a total lie. When you deny reality and rely on "alternative facts" a major shit-storm is what you'll always get.

The REAL answer to the EU's problems is a total re-organization. Whether or not the "Grand Compromise" of our Constitution is a reasonable model or not is for them to decide. Once again the smaller, more numerous states are terrified of being totally controlled by the bigger, giant states....because they are! In fact, the Kaiser's and Hitler's goal of Germany dominating Europe wasn't reached militarily, it was by economics and peaceful, friendly relations with the other states of the EU, to work and trade WITH them, not against them.

I don't have the final answer. The problem was there, just as much as today, when I was 20, at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium, in 1976 and there were only 9 members in the 3 Communities. Even then, everyone knew the High Commission was eventually headed for disaster unless major changes were made. And here it is!
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#16 Post by Buck13 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:33 pm

“If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?” Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, wrote in a Twitter post.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/worl ... a-may.html

May is thought to be a closet Remainer, isn't she? She should really just say, "Fuck it, then, we're staying." The Tories are sure to shit-can her soon enough in any case. Is that what Tusk is trolling for here?
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#17 Post by Bisbee » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:18 pm

“Fuckit,” really sounds like the logical conclusion. But politics rarely pays attention to logic. In fact, logic is considered an inconvenience by many politicians who rise and fall based on human emotions. May herself rose to power on a wave of “discontent”...

As did Turnip.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#18 Post by highdesert » Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:41 pm

I was watching some of it today, the largest defeat of a UK government in history. Theresa May's Brexit Agreement that she signed with the EU in November was rejected in the UK House of Commons 432 to 202 - 230 votes against. One third of her own Conservative (Tory) Party voted against her. This is the sixth vote that her government has lost related to the Brexit agreement in the last two months. Tomorrow a vote of no confidence by the Labour Party will be debated, Jeremy Corbyn the Labour leader doesn't have the votes to topple May.

The MPs voted by division and the video is when results were reported to the the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, a moment in history.
https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audi ... 432-to-202

One of the votes she lost now requires her government to present alternatives to to the Brexit agreement to the Commons within three days.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#19 Post by Buck13 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:52 am

highdesert wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:41 pm
One of the votes she lost now requires her government to present alternatives to to the Brexit agreement to the Commons within three days.
:popcorn:
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#20 Post by Buck13 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:10 am

Bisbee wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:18 pm
“Fuckit,” really sounds like the logical conclusion. But politics rarely pays attention to logic. In fact, logic is considered an inconvenience by many politicians who rise and fall based on human emotions. May herself rose to power on a wave of “discontent”...
Man, can she possibly believe she's not doomed already? She might as well go out in a blaze of glory! Her PMship has been a disaster. In the last general election the Tories declined since they were seen to have screwed the pooch, and they've continued to fuck that dog loudly and conspicuously. Their only hope is that enough Labor moderates are scared of Corbyn and sit on their hands at the next election. I'd not bet too heavily on that!

Speaking of bets, what odds are the bookies currently making on Scotland leaving the Union? It might be fun to wager a couple of ducats on it. :greedy:
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#21 Post by Bisbee » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:35 am

Scotland is part of the consideration for why “fuckit” is really the only logical way forward for the UK (IMHO). Leaving th EU without an agreement will almost guarantee that Scotland leaves the UK to remain with the EU. They weren’t hot on Brexit in the first place and most everyone also understands (now) that leaving the EU cold-turkey is tantamount to economic suicide. So why would Scotland plunge off the cliff for no good reason? -They won’t.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#22 Post by CDFingers » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:01 am

There is always opportunity for profit amid chaos.

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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#23 Post by highdesert » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:48 am

From the outside there were three standouts, Commons Speaker John Bercow a former Tory who allowed these amendments to be voted on apparently against the advice of his legal advisor. Dominic Grieve, a Tory MP (former UK Attorney General) who pushed for amendments that give MPs control over Brexit. And Keir Starmer, Labour MP and Shadow Brexit Secretary (former director of public prosecutions and CPS) who argued for the amendments on the Labour side.

Polls show that Labour Party members are against Brexit even though Jeremy Corbyn is for it and Keir Starmer is pushing for a new referendum. The EU has already said that they wouldn't admit Scotland if it became independent of the UK, still Scotland was solidly against Brexit as was most of Northern Ireland IIRC.
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#24 Post by max129 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:01 am

This is all 'unintended consequences' - politicians wanted to simplify a complex issue down to super simple reductions. In fact, they crossed the line from truth to falsehood early in the Brexit promotions. Ignoring the Northern Ireland border issue was one of those issues that got removed from the story. Brexit was going to shut down the flow of immigrants. (Seen the native British birth rate? The British NEED immigrants. Hell, 25% of the NHS may be immigrants.)

When I first heard of 'direct democracy' I was a conceptual fan. But any analysis of direct democracy trends shows that interest groups find voters easier to dupe than legislators (who must actually be bribed, or 'lobbied'.)

I do have some slight sympathy for Theresa May, who was a mild voiced 'Remainer' before the vote. She believed she could clean up the mess made by the referendum - she was wrong. The problems with Brexit, as currently stated, are intractable. There is NO DEAL that could unravel the Gordian Knot of requirements.

As we say in mathematics: time to restate the problem. And the real problem, in the eyes of most voters, was 'free movement of people' AKA the Schengen Region policy. And not the regulations and legal issues with the EU. And here is a funny thing, the EU has the same problem in several EU countries. I recently flew from Spain into France on a Schengen regional flight. A few years ago, this meant no passport check. Now, I had to show my passport even though I was traveling from a Schengen Country into another.

ALL EU Countries are moving towards less 'free movement' and this is an area where The UK COULD negotiate a quiet opt out. The EU pattern is that people break the rules all the time, but they are required to be quiet and a bit sneaky about it.

Hate the idea of a sneaky solution? If you lived in the UK, what would you rather have? A sneaky solution to immigration? Or the current Brexit mess?

(I know: I am a disgusting pragmatist.)
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Re: Meanwhile across the pond and the chaos with Brexit

#25 Post by SubRosa » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:47 am

CDFingers wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:01 am
There is always opportunity for profit amid chaos.

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