Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

1
The local Alabama press and the right-wing press are salivating. They want to crush Jones in 2020.
Alabama is the only solidly Republican state where a Democrat will face reelection in 2020, and while Jones doesn’t yet have a top-tier challenger, the GOP is already eyeing his seat as its best pick-up opportunity in the next election.
Roy Moore is making noises about running again, but my guess is that he is just trying to raise money for... something corrupt and vile.

I think that any reasonably far-right unreasonable GOP challenger will win, but Jones does have an incumbency advantage that is hard to quantify. The midterms were bad for Dems in Alabama, so I expect to lose that seat. Anyone think he will win?
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

2
I just don't know. I don't have any feel for it. 'Bama is, of course, like most super-Red states, doing everything it can to disenfranchise Democratic and potential Democratic voters, primarily minorities, but I don't know how effective it has been or if turnout can overcome it. Plus Jones is about as right-wing a Dem as West Virginia's Joe Manchin which may help. I HOPE he retains his seat in 2020.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

3
It's very early and I can't imagine that the AL Rep Party and the RNC wouldn't put all their efforts into blocking Moore. Jones isn't the most popular senator and Reps will use any means to defeat him.
The latest poll comes as reports emerged that hundreds of thousands of dollars had gone to support a disinformation social media campaign against Moore. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall is currently looking into whether those efforts violated state campaign laws.
Dems lost four Senate seats in November 2018; North Dakota, Missouri, Florida and Indiana. The two parties like the hyper-partisanship in very red and very blue states
https://www.al.com/news/2019/01/doug-jo ... ected.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

5
It would not surprise me if Roy Moore got elected. I mean the Bama idiots voted him in as Supreme Court Chief Justice after he had been removed once from the same job. They almost elected him as Senator. The voters in Bama don’t seem to be troubled by misogyny in their Reptilians, They support Orange Slime.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

6
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:24 pm If the Dems have any hope of taking back the Senate, they have to make progress in Red States. I think 70 senators represent 30% of the country. Many are red state senators.
The 26 smallest states (with 52 senators) represent less than 18% of the nation. The 10 largest states, with 20 senators, represent 58%, so the other EIGHTY represent only 42%!
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

7
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:58 pm
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:24 pm If the Dems have any hope of taking back the Senate, they have to make progress in Red States. I think 70 senators represent 30% of the country. Many are red state senators.
The 26 smallest states (with 52 senators) represent less than 18% of the nation. The 10 largest states, with 20 senators, represent 58%, so the other EIGHTY represent only 42%!
That's only true is you measure 18% of the nation by population. By land area the numbers are much more reasonable, and by statehood the numbers are perfect. The intention of the Senate, after all, is to represent the states, not the people.
106+ recreational uses of firearms
1 defensive use
0 people injured
0 people killed

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

8
Eris wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:02 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:58 pm
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:24 pm If the Dems have any hope of taking back the Senate, they have to make progress in Red States. I think 70 senators represent 30% of the country. Many are red state senators.
The 26 smallest states (with 52 senators) represent less than 18% of the nation. The 10 largest states, with 20 senators, represent 58%, so the other EIGHTY represent only 42%!
That's only true is you measure 18% of the nation by population. By land area the numbers are much more reasonable, and by statehood the numbers are perfect. The intention of the Senate, after all, is to represent the states, not the people.
Well, Alaska vs Rhode Island makes that an odd comparison.

When the GOP loses the popular vote consistently and by wide margins, but still retains the Senate, something might give. Assuming, of course, that the GOP is still around.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

9
What's odd about it? We have a Representative Democratic Republic, and what are represented? People.
Not trees, streams, rocks, mountains, bunny rabbits, or woodpeckers. State are nothing but the same thing, only on a smaller scale. Politically speaking, Rhode Island, the smallest state by area, is STILL larger, by population, than Alaska, the largest in area.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

10
I personally find the representation of states in the Senate to be a feature, not a bug. It acts as a check on the tyrrany of the majoirty. I do object to the Senate being given exclusive control of things like Presidential appointments and treaties, but I don't object the composition of the Senate per se.

If the Senate reporesentation was proportional to the population then we'd have the cities wielding a huge club to beat up the rural areas, and that would be unacceptable to me. The way things stand, with the House and Senate representing the country in different ways, it means that nothing major can be done without a strong consensus, and overall I think that's a good thing. The Democratss can't push through gun bans, and the Repuilicans can't push through abortion bans. It evens out.
106+ recreational uses of firearms
1 defensive use
0 people injured
0 people killed

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

11
There are some exceptions to the powers granted to the Senate, specifically in the 25th.
1) When there is a vacancy in the Vice-Presidency, the President may nominate a replacement, but BOTH Houses must approve that nominee.
2) When the President is removed against his will, and then demands to be restored, if the VP and majority of the Cabinet disagree, BOTH Houses must sustain the removal by 2/3 majorities.

But the 2 Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming, all with only a single at large Congress person, have 8 Senators. They have 3.1 million people, total. California, Texas, Florida, and New York have 109 million, literally more than 1/3 of ALL the US population, more than 35x the first 4, and STILL only have 8 senators.

Less than 18% of the population can block the will of the other 82% one EVERYTHING! It's become a tyranny of the minority!

If you look at the population of just the states with 2 Democratic senators, not including the split states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, they represent 63% of the nation, out of 326 million people in the 50 states, they contain 204 million, yet don't even come CLOSE to majority in the Senate.

And, quite frankly, the CONTROL by the small states has NEVER evened out, not when it came to slaves in the 1700's, nor when it came to the 2017 tax bill that DELIBERATELY hammers taxpayers in the Blue States by getting rid of the SALT exemption, while benefitting the Red States. I shudder to think what our tax bill will look like, when we are limited in our mortgage, property tax and state income exemptions are slashed. And it was DELIBERATE to punish Blue States. Yertle and Ryan and all their Trumpian thralls knew it, and intended it.

I've YET to see in our history how the big states and urban areas dominated and hurt the sparse areas in the ways the reverse has happened.

Let's not forget that of the 30 states that went for the Shit-Stain, 26 of them are "welfare queens", getting more from the budget than they contribute in taxes. Of the remaining 4 that are donors, 2, Texas and Florida, just BARELY give more than they get, while the 2 that SHOULD have gone Blue, Wisconsin and Michigan, both give a much higher percentage than the other two.

On the other hand, of the 20 states that went for Clinton, 13 are sheep being sheared to pay for EVERYONE else...and they are mostly big states.

So the losers are being drained of their wealth and resources by the winners. At least 2018 changed that in the House.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

12
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:16 pm
I've YET to see in our history how the big states and urban areas dominated and hurt the sparse areas in the ways the reverse has happened.

Let's not forget that of the 30 states that went for the Shit-Stain, 26 of them are "welfare queens", getting more from the budget than they contribute in taxes. Of the remaining 4 that are donors, 2, Texas and Florida, just BARELY give more than they get, while the 2 that SHOULD have gone Blue, Wisconsin and Michigan, both give a much higher percentage than the other two.

On the other hand, of the 20 states that went for Clinton, 13 are sheep being sheared to pay for EVERYONE else...and they are mostly big states.

So the losers are being drained of their wealth and resources by the winners. At least 2018 changed that in the House.
That was my point about Alaska (HUGE landmass) vs RI (tiny state). People, not rocks, vote.

The one example of "coastal elite" states dominating and hurting less populated states that I hear about: ACA.

Also: abolition of slavery.

If the Senate didn't have so much exclusive power, I wouldn't have a problem with the difference from the House. Merrick Garland is an example. Brett Kavanaugh is a second example. The Federal courts are becoming a reflection of the far-right GOP and will lose legitimacy if this continues. Can democracy and court legitimacy continue with four more years of McConnell/Trump?
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

14
Eris wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:26 pm I have had minority rule for the past couple of years, but it's not because of the Senate. It's because of the gerrymandering of the house. That's what we should be railing against.
Agreed. Federal action or help will not be forthcoming for 2021 maps even if Trump is out of office - because of the Senate.

My state is a lost cause, I think, for at least another decade. I have more hope for Texas than Georgia or Florida.

In another decade, the concepts of "citizenship" and "voting" might even be different. Depends on the next few years.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

15
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:34 pm
Eris wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:26 pm I have had minority rule for the past couple of years, but it's not because of the Senate. It's because of the gerrymandering of the house. That's what we should be railing against.
Agreed. Federal action or help will not be forthcoming for 2021 maps even if Trump is out of office - because of the Senate.

My state is a lost cause, I think, for at least another decade. I have more hope for Texas than Georgia or Florida.

In another decade, the concepts of "citizenship" and "voting" might even be different. Depends on the next few years.
They don't talk about it loudly, but the wealthy right-wing donors would like to see the right to vote, and the weight of ones vote, to be similar to voting your shares in a corporation. So David and Charles Kochs' votes, Robert and Rebekah Mercers' votes would be worth thousands of times more than yours or mine...
And if you don't actually earn an income, well, we heard Mitt Romney hint in his "47%" remark that those 47% shouldn't be allowed to vote!

At least in Heinlein's "Starship Trooper" the earning of citizenship comes with a defined quality anyone can get by military service, not by how much you inherited from your daddy's daddy's daddy!
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

16
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:16 pm
But the 2 Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming, all with only a single at large Congress person, have 8 Senators. They have 3.1 million people, total. California, Texas, Florida, and New York have 109 million, literally more than 1/3 of ALL the US population, more than 35x the first 4, and STILL only have 8 senators.

Less than 18% of the population can block the will of the other 82% one EVERYTHING! It's become a tyranny of the minority!

If you look at the population of just the states with 2 Democratic senators, not including the split states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, they represent 63% of the nation, out of 326 million people in the 50 states, they contain 204 million, yet don't even come CLOSE to majority in the Senate.

And, quite frankly, the CONTROL by the small states has NEVER evened out, not when it came to slaves in the 1700's, nor when it came to the 2017 tax bill that DELIBERATELY hammers taxpayers in the Blue States by getting rid of the SALT exemption, while benefitting the Red States. I shudder to think what our tax bill will look like, when we are limited in our mortgage, property tax and state income exemptions are slashed. And it was DELIBERATE to punish Blue States. Yertle and Ryan and all their Trumpian thralls knew it, and intended it.

I've YET to see in our history how the big states and urban areas dominated and hurt the sparse areas in the ways the reverse has happened.

Let's not forget that of the 30 states that went for the Shit-Stain, 26 of them are "welfare queens", getting more from the budget than they contribute in taxes. Of the remaining 4 that are donors, 2, Texas and Florida, just BARELY give more than they get, while the 2 that SHOULD have gone Blue, Wisconsin and Michigan, both give a much higher percentage than the other two.

On the other hand, of the 20 states that went for Clinton, 13 are sheep being sheared to pay for EVERYONE else...and they are mostly big states.

So the losers are being drained of their wealth and resources by the winners. At least 2018 changed that in the House.

I agree when the DFW metro area has 7,399,662 people according to the 2017 estimated census. More than twice of the three states mentioned and had less representation in Congress per person.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

17
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:55 pm
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:34 pm
Eris wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:26 pm I have had minority rule for the past couple of years, but it's not because of the Senate. It's because of the gerrymandering of the house. That's what we should be railing against.
Agreed. Federal action or help will not be forthcoming for 2021 maps even if Trump is out of office - because of the Senate.

My state is a lost cause, I think, for at least another decade. I have more hope for Texas than Georgia or Florida.

In another decade, the concepts of "citizenship" and "voting" might even be different. Depends on the next few years.
They don't talk about it loudly, but the wealthy right-wing donors would like to see the right to vote, and the weight of ones vote, to be similar to voting your shares in a corporation. So David and Charles Kochs' votes, Robert and Rebekah Mercers' votes would be worth thousands of times more than yours or mine...
And if you don't actually earn an income, well, we heard Mitt Romney hint in his "47%" remark that those 47% shouldn't be allowed to vote!

At least in Heinlein's "Starship Trooper" the earning of citizenship comes with a defined quality anyone can get by military service, not by how much you inherited from your daddy's daddy's daddy!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mor ... ses-sides/

Robert Mercer is a former IBM computer scientist who made billions later in life by applying complex programming techniques to financial trading.... “Bob believes that human beings have no inherent value other than how much money they make,” a colleague told the New Yorker. “If someone is on welfare they have negative value. If he earns a thousand times more than a schoolteacher, then he’s a thousand times more valuable.”
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

18
K9s wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:46 pm
Robert Mercer is a former IBM computer scientist who made billions later in life by applying complex programming techniques to financial trading.... “Bob believes that human beings have no inherent value other than how much money they make,” a colleague told the New Yorker. “If someone is on welfare they have negative value. If he earns a thousand times more than a schoolteacher, then he’s a thousand times more valuable.”
The Prosecution rests! :!:
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

19
TrueTexan wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:42 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:16 pm
But the 2 Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming, all with only a single at large Congress person, have 8 Senators. They have 3.1 million people, total. California, Texas, Florida, and New York have 109 million, literally more than 1/3 of ALL the US population, more than 35x the first 4, and STILL only have 8 senators.

Less than 18% of the population can block the will of the other 82% one EVERYTHING! It's become a tyranny of the minority!

If you look at the population of just the states with 2 Democratic senators, not including the split states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, they represent 63% of the nation, out of 326 million people in the 50 states, they contain 204 million, yet don't even come CLOSE to majority in the Senate.

And, quite frankly, the CONTROL by the small states has NEVER evened out, not when it came to slaves in the 1700's, nor when it came to the 2017 tax bill that DELIBERATELY hammers taxpayers in the Blue States by getting rid of the SALT exemption, while benefitting the Red States. I shudder to think what our tax bill will look like, when we are limited in our mortgage, property tax and state income exemptions are slashed. And it was DELIBERATE to punish Blue States. Yertle and Ryan and all their Trumpian thralls knew it, and intended it.

I've YET to see in our history how the big states and urban areas dominated and hurt the sparse areas in the ways the reverse has happened.

Let's not forget that of the 30 states that went for the Shit-Stain, 26 of them are "welfare queens", getting more from the budget than they contribute in taxes. Of the remaining 4 that are donors, 2, Texas and Florida, just BARELY give more than they get, while the 2 that SHOULD have gone Blue, Wisconsin and Michigan, both give a much higher percentage than the other two.

On the other hand, of the 20 states that went for Clinton, 13 are sheep being sheared to pay for EVERYONE else...and they are mostly big states.

So the losers are being drained of their wealth and resources by the winners. At least 2018 changed that in the House.

I agree when the DFW metro area has 7,399,662 people according to the 2017 estimated census. More than twice of the three states mentioned and had less representation in Congress per person.
The gerrymandering is even worse in state legislatures. It takes a majority of Dem voters to put a crack in the supermajority of the GOP in many of our states.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regiona ... a1Jaz0bnM/

Georgia is one of three Southern states (the others are Alabama & Louisiana) where a national Democratic group has filed federal lawsuits alleging congressional districts were drawn to limit the political power of black voters.

https://www.law.com/dailyreportonline/2 ... -evidence/

Despite citing “compelling evidence” that the Georgia General Assembly racially gerrymandered two metro Atlanta legislative districts to assure Republican wins in 2016, a federal three-judge panel has refused to enjoin the new lines as unconstitutional.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Does Doug Jones in Alabama have a chance to win?

21
If the non-GOP fight for every seat in every district again, we may get a surprise somewhere. The GOP will probably throw Cory Gardner to the wolves and focus on Doug Jones more. Could it backfire and get Jones re-elected? Probably not, but it might get more local non-GOP representation.

Alabama has no early voting and strict controls, so that should give the rest of us some hope for our own states. I do wonder what their state government would look like with free and fair elections.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests