"Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

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"Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#1 Post by highdesert » Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:42 am

President Donald Trump, gearing up for the official start of his 2020 campaign, warned that the U.S. would face an epic stock market crash if he’s not re-elected.

“If anyone but me takes over,” Trump told his 61 million Twitter followers on Saturday, “there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before!” Trump officially starts his 2020 campaign on Tuesday with a rally in Orlando, Florida, and appears to be road-testing some of the themes he’ll be touching on in the next 18 months, including stoking fear of a market meltdown. “Tuesday will be a Big Crowd and Big Day,” he said in another tweet.

The president has claimed several times this year and as recently as Friday in a “Fox & Friends” interview that the U.S. stock market would be 5,000 to 10,000 points higher if the Federal Reserve hadn’t raised interest rates four times in 2018. He also tweeted in February that “had the opposition party” won in 2016, “the Stock Market would be down at least 10,000 points by now” -- an unprovable assertion. And in January Trump suggested that if “you want to see a Stock Market Crash, Impeach Trump.”

“We have never had a president so aware of where the stock market is and how much it is up or down on the year,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank NA, said in an email. “Better buckle up, equity investors.”

Research by Macrotrends shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s performance so far in Trump’s term has been middling compared with his predecessors, and trails the gains made under Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. It’s a touch above the gains logged under Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush; George W. Bush had presided over a losing market at this point in his first term.

The benchmark S&P 500 index made a record high in early May before slipping in the face of Trump’s stepped-up trade war with China. The more narrow DJIA, whose performance Trump likes to reference, last peaked more than eight months ago, on Oct. 3.

The Dow posted 71 record high closes in 2017, starting within a week of Trump’s inauguration, and another 15 in 2018, helped by the passage of a Republican tax bill. The index made 122 record high closes during Obama’s second term, after recovering from losses suffered during the recession of 2007-2009.

As Trump kicks off his re-election campaign, the chances of a recession starting in the U.S. within the next year have risen to 30% from 25% a month ago, according to a June 7-12 survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg News. Recent figures have shown slowing job gains, and Trump’s tariff threats are weighing on business sentiment. The rising U.S. budget deficit and national debt have also raised alarm bells.
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income

He thinks he's Louis XIV of France, "I am the State." and his successor Louis XV "After me the deluge". Talleyrand said of the Bourbon kings that "They learned nothing and forgot nothing.", sounds like Donnie.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#2 Post by Wino » Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:18 pm

I predict just the opposite - if this puke is reelected we will have the worst downturn ever, if we don't before 11/2020.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#3 Post by kronkmusic » Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:53 pm

We'll likely have a recession before the election, Republicans will blame it on the polls showing that the Democrats are gonna win, idiots will believe them, we'll spend the next eight years digging the country out of a recession, people will get complacent and elect another Republican, and the cycle continues.

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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#4 Post by TrueTexan » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:40 pm

As I said in another thread my financial advisor said we are looking at another recession starting in the next few months . The market has almost been flat for the last two quarters. Now there is talk already of a governor shutdown in Oct with the start of the fiscal year. Look what happened to the economy during the last shutdown. The to[ one percent may own the most wealth but they really don’t power the country. You can have all the stocks, bonds and money but it is the other people that buy the groceries, cars, clothes, that shop at WalMart, Target, the Dollar Stores that really power the economy. They spend the money they get to live and it provides the jobs for other minimum wage earners. If the ‘common’ people don’t have the money to spend the companies don’t make profits and the stock market craters.

We are seeing a repeat of 1929. High tariffs, banks are investing in risky investments, market is flat, etc. Difference we do have the FDIC to keep from having the run on banks.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#5 Post by highdesert » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:54 pm

TT, the Anderson School at UCLA is also predicting recession but a little farther out.
“The first step toward making a recession forecast is looking at what was unusual in the four quarters before recessions,” he writes. Some of the most reliable indicators include weak residential investment and intellectual property (three quarters prior to recessions), and weak residential construction and consumer durables (two quarters before recessions.)

An inverted yield curve also emerges as an important and well-known part of a recession alarm. “The effect of the first quarter of 2019 data is to increase the recession probabilities from near zero to 15% for the next year and to between 24% and 83% for the year after that,” Leamer writes.

In addition, the expected number of quarters remaining in this expansion falls from 7.1 to 5.5 when the first quarter of 2019 data are included. That is just one quarter beyond a single year. In other words, he writes, “don’t worry about the coming year; worry about the year after that.” His conclusion: “Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019.” That data actually increases the risk of a recession in the next couple of years.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla- ... california

If a Dem wins in 2020 that person could get blamed with the recession, guess we better start calling it the Trump recession right now.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#6 Post by Bullitt68 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:54 pm

Please just leave now, we know its bullshit already
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#7 Post by wooglin » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:09 pm

Might be worth it.

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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#8 Post by Mason » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:39 pm

My friends in commercial construction are preparing for a recession.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#9 Post by Bullitt68 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:42 pm

The markets way overdue for a correction. It's going to be a big one and trumpet will blame anyone and everyone else.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#10 Post by highdesert » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:01 pm

President Donald Trump is warning of an economic crash if he loses reelection, arguing that even voters who personally dislike him should base their ballots on the nation's strong growth and low unemployment rate. But privately, Trump is growing increasingly worried the economy won't look so good come Election Day.

The financial markets signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession this week, sending a jolt of anxiety to investors, companies and consumers. That's on top of concerns over Trump's plans to impose punishing tariffs on goods from China and word from the United Kingdom and Germany that their economies are shrinking. Though a pre-election recession here is far from certain, a downturn would be a devastating blow to the president, who has made a strong economy his central argument for a second term. Trump advisers fear a weakened economy would hurt him with moderate Republican and independent voters who have been willing to give him a pass on some his incendiary policies and rhetoric. And White House economic advisers see few options for reversing course should the economy start to slip.

Trump has taken to blaming others for the recession fears, mostly the Federal Reserve, which he is pushing for further interest rate cuts. Yet much of the uncertainty in the markets stems from his own escalation of a trade war with China, as well as weakened economies in key countries around the world. Some of Trump's closest advisers have urged him to lower the temperature of the trade dispute, fearing that further tariffs would only hurt American consumers and rattle the markets further. The president blinked once this week, delaying a set of tariffs in an effort to save Christmas sales.

Aides acknowledge it is unclear what steps the White House could take to stop a downturn. Trump's 2017 tax cut proved so politically unpopular that many Republicans ran away from it during last year's midterms. And a new stimulus spending program could spark intraparty fighting over big deficits. The hope among administration officials is that a mix of wage gains and consumer spending will power growth through 2020. Yet Trump knows his own survival hinges on voters believing that he alone can prolong the economy's decade-plus expansion. "You have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k), everything is going to be down the tubes," the president said at a Thursday rally in New Hampshire. "Whether you love me or hate me, you've got to vote for me."

Trump has spent much of the week at his New Jersey golf club, many of his mornings on the links, his afternoons watching cable television and his evenings calling confidants and business executives to get their take on the market's volatility. Though he has expressed private worries about Wall Street, he is also skeptical about some of the weaker economic indicators, wondering if the media and establishment figures are manipulating the data to make him look bad, according to two Republicans close to the White House, not authorized to discuss private conversations.
One sector already suffering this year is manufacturing, the very industry that Trump pledged to revive and fortify with his tariffs. Factory output has fallen 0.5% during the past 12 months, the Fed said Thursday. There are a few steps the government could take to help manufacturing and the economy, said Linda Dempsey, vice president of international economic affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers. Congress could approve the updated trade agreement among the United States, Canada and Mexico — which would protect the North American supply chain. Secondly, the government could renew the soon-to-expire charter for the Export-Import Bank. But reconciling the situation with China is tricky because it involves negotiations between two countries with competing interests.

"That requires two sides — it's not something the United States and our own political environment can deal with," Dempsey said. Most economists — including Fed officials — still expect the economy to grow this year, just at a slower pace than last year's 2.9%. A senior White House official said the growth in the second quarter this year was artificially low because of unusually bad weather and problems at Boeing that hurt aircraft production. Thus the baseline economy might be stronger than many forecasters think.

Financial markets on Wednesday pointed to a possible downturn as the interest rate charged on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below the rate on a 2-year note. That event has traditionally foreshadowed a recession. But the Trump official said it might have lost its predictive power because of the low rates and other policies of central banks worldwide.

But the falling rates on U.S. Treasury notes indicates that the recession countdown clock is now ticking, said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. The only challenge is figuring out when that alarm bell might ring. "I think we're heading down that road to recession — we're on that steady march toward that inevitable conclusion," Anderson said. "It's just that drip, drip, drip of trade war anxiety that is hanging over market sentiment."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireSto ... 0-65022715
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#11 Post by TrueTexan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:44 pm

Trump says the stock market will crash if he is not elected. If he loses he will make sure that happens. Then he will say “I told so”
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#12 Post by K9s » Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:02 pm

kronkmusic wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:53 pm
We'll likely have a recession before the election, Republicans will blame it on the polls showing that the Democrats are gonna win, idiots will believe them, we'll spend the next eight years digging the country out of a recession, people will get complacent and elect another Republican, and the cycle continues.
If this wasn't factually and historically true, I would love to argue the other side of the issue.

This time, the retail industry and farms (what is left of them) will be destroyed. Big Ag, Amazon/Walmart, and banks will be bailed out. The deficit will be too high, we will be told, to pay for things like Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, etc. However, corporate tax cuts will be needed to help the "job creators" and save the economy.

Same ol same ol
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#13 Post by CDFingers » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:07 pm

I warn of epic heartburn if he _is_ re-elected.

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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#14 Post by Greengunner » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:57 pm

TrueTexan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:44 pm
Trump says the stock market will crash if he is not elected. If he loses he will make sure that happens. Then he will say “I told so”
Exactly. It's not a prediction, it's a threat. He's saying, "Reelect me or I'll burn this bitch to the ground."

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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#15 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:45 am

Trump knows lots about money:
1) How to lose it
2) How to lose other people's money
3) How to stiff people out of money he owes
4) How to spend other people's money
5) How to scam people with fake business promises
6) How to destroy other people's businesses as you destroy your own (Atlantic City, USFL)
7) How to screw workers
8) How to sue people to scare them
9) How to go bankrupt repeatedly.

Of course none of this is worth a pile of pig shit when it comes to ACTUALLY manning an economy.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
My son says: "Don't argue with an idiot. They'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!" -- YT

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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#16 Post by K9s » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:33 am

His dream team of Fox News pundits and Hollywood producers should make you feel better.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#17 Post by K9s » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:33 am

Image
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#18 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:41 am

So...if 80-85 million people vote for the Democratic nominee, and vote out Republican senators, even his obvious attempts ALREADY IN THE WORKS to steal another election WILL fail.
93 million didn't vote for either in 2016. If 20 million of those will vote for the Democrat, it will be a landslide. Trump may not even get 60 million this time.

The Mooch predicts Trump will drop out of the race beforehand, but I think he's wrong, because Trump knows if the Democrats win, he's likely to go to prison. But if he's dictator and President-For-Life, it won't happen.....maybe.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#19 Post by highdesert » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:03 pm

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:41 am
So...if 80-85 million people vote for the Democratic nominee, and vote out Republican senators, even his obvious attempts ALREADY IN THE WORKS to steal another election WILL fail.
93 million didn't vote for either in 2016. If 20 million of those will vote for the Democrat, it will be a landslide. Trump may not even get 60 million this time.

The Mooch predicts Trump will drop out of the race beforehand, but I think he's wrong, because Trump knows if the Democrats win, he's likely to go to prison. But if he's dictator and President-For-Life, it won't happen.....maybe.
The right Democratic candidates and the right issues that will bring out voters. The Trump campaign and the RNC will be working hard to motivate their voters and suppress Democratic and Dem leaning independent voters. Right now I'm concerned that their stances on hot button issues will kill their chances...it takes 270 electoral votes to win.

I agree about Mooch - he still wants media attention.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#20 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:39 pm

Democrats don't need to suppress votes to win. They need to motivate people to vote. If 70% of the Democratic-leaning voters vote Democratic, they will win, easily.
Republicans MUST suppress votes to win. They cannot win even if they get out 70-90% of their supporters.

These are easily verified by the numbers.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#21 Post by K9s » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:48 pm

The top of the ticket is very important. However, Trump voters will vote in historic numbers in 2020 (they did in 2018!). Many of my state and local races are unopposed GOP, but the GOP turns out anyway. The non-GOP voters need a reason to turn out to vote in every district. With a little money and right local and state candidates, voter turnout can be historic. Every seat in every district must be opposed, if possible.
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#22 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:58 pm

K9s wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:48 pm
The top of the ticket is very important. However, Trump voters will vote in historic numbers in 2020 (they did in 2018!). Many of my state and local races are unopposed GOP, but the GOP turns out anyway. The non-GOP voters need a reason to turn out to vote in every district. With a little money and right local and state candidates, voter turnout can be historic. Every seat in every district must be opposed, if possible.
And Perez and the DNC aren't putting NEARLY enough emphasis on challenging every Republican Senate seat when they should. Considering that 3 of the 4 Iowa House seats went Democratic, and King BARELY hung on, Joni Ernst should be considered vulnerable....If all those people who elected Dems and nearly tossed out King vote against Ernst, she'll be out...But Perez is too fucking blind and stuck in the old ways to see that.
If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." -- Mark Twain
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Re: "Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected"

#23 Post by SaneConservative » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:49 am

YankeeTarheel wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:45 am
Trump knows lots about money:
1) How to lose it
2) How to lose other people's money
3) How to stiff people out of money he owes
4) How to spend other people's money
5) How to scam people with fake business promises
6) How to destroy other people's businesses as you destroy your own (Atlantic City, USFL)
7) How to screw workers
8) How to sue people to scare them
9) How to go bankrupt repeatedly.

Of course none of this is worth a pile of pig shit when it comes to ACTUALLY manning an economy.
:laugh: thread.

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