What's the worst you really think would happen?

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Kodiak3d
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What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Kodiak3d »

Let me preface this by saying that I'm not someone who thinks we're near the end of civilization or anything like that...

That being said, what prompted me to start building my AR-15 is the violence at Trump rallies. I realized that the there are too many people on the far-right that have been drinking the kool-aid being served to them for the past several years. They've been worked up into a such a paranoid fear that they're all-too-ready to go to violence, and that makes them potentially dangerous. I started thinking, "You know...maybe having an AR-15 wouldn't be such a bad idea." The strong anti-intellectual sentiment in the US also bothers me.

It makes me kinda wonder, "What IS the worst that could happen?" If there were to be a conservative move against the government, what would happen? Would they be put down like cattle? Would they be an insurgency like some of the middle east countries have to deal with? Is a full blown civil war possible?

My answer to all of them is, I don't know. Most likely, if there were an armed movement against the government, they would be put down. The recent Oregon situation showed just how patient the feds can be, and honestly I was surprised. Still, that wasn't quite an "armed uprising" as I imagine it.

Would they become an underground insurgency? This, I feel, is the most likely thing to happen. The internet allows for nationwide communication to organize something like this, although our government would probably be able to monitor such communication easily. It could get messy, depending on how smart the group operated.

Is a full blown civil war possible? I would think it's possible (anything is, really), but very unlikely. I think the only way something like that could happen is if an uprising reached a point that it actually became a military engagement and some of the military refused. There is a strong conservative streak in our military, and while I think it's possible that some would side with a right-wing group, I don't think all would.

Part of me is very curious to see what happens in Cleveland at the Republican convention. Clearly, the Republican establishment is working to keep Trump from getting the nomination and it looks more and more likely that the real nominee will be someone who didn't even run. There are going to be some VERY angry Trump supporters there. Should be interesting.

Anyway, just some thoughts running through my skull. I DO think that too many liberals take the right to own a gun for granted. As peaceful as you want to be, sometimes the fight gets brought to you. Best to be prepared when the barbarians come. Just ask the Romans.

Thoughts?

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by senorgrand »

I don't worry about political instability at all.

I have an earthquake fault, wildfire area, prison, nuclear plant, rail line and major freeway in my backyard.

That's enough to keep me up at night.

Look, if we can make it through the great depression and the late 60s/early 70s without killing each other, I'm certainly not going to get worried about a reality tv personality.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Simmer down »

The average citizen is low-energy, overweight, and has a short attention span. Those aren't the ingredients of an uprising.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Kodiak3d »

Both excellent points. My question was more just hypothetical. A natural disaster is definitely the more likely. My wife and I both carry a bag in our vehicles with plenty of useful things in case of a situation like that.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Simmer down »

The Texas heat can fry you. If the electricity goes out at 100 degrees its hard to adapt. Having water handy is common most of the year but that can only get you so far.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Hiker »

As a recent victim of an anti-GLBT hate crime, you bet your ass I am ready and willing to defend my self if necessary.
Now as far as other issues, yes I worry about right wing nutjobs. I am 10000 times more worried about them than any Muslim. I have concerns about natural disasters, specially since I lived through the super-occurence of tornadoes on Apr 3, 1974. As far as big disasters, I am really concerned about an EMP from ISIL or North Korea.
My prepping started when I was in grade school and watched my dad trying to dig a bomb shelter in the crawl space of our house during the Cuban missile crisis.
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Both oligarch and tyrant mistrust the people, and therefore deprive them of their arms.—Aristotle

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by nigel »

I have a 25 year old daughter who lives in New York. I'm way more worried about her getting accosted by some guy on the street than any SHTF scenario.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by inomaha »

It's severe storm day here. Those are more likely to impact me personally. The first round of heavy stuff is passing through Kansas City now. But as the day warms up we'll either get something or not. It all depends on where the low passes through. It's a plus or minus a hundred miles here and there. I've had to clean that stuff up before and it's impressive what a storm can do to property. I picked up pieces of the house a 1/4 mile away that got imbedded in the trees and roof of the property we were cleaning up. I put this just behind health issues on the crap-o-meter scale.

If anything happens like what you're talking about, it will be a combination of right, left, and middle that is set off by something we probably won't expect. Then the with us or against us mentality with take over using a healthy dose of fear. City riots will be more likely than a conservative attempt to overthrow the government. Sometimes when the ball starts rolling, it's hard to stop. You might see a far right wing nutjob start something in a very left urban area that causes a national level emergency that spirals out of control over a short time period. Multiple riots in multiple cities around the country will cause a lot of people to organize defense of property, which can lead to chaos if shooting starts.

Then things would probably stop as fast as they started and we'd get years of analysis as to who started it, why the police couldn't stop it, who's to blame for what, and why can't we all just get along pleas while nothing changes.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by CDFingers »

Simmer down wrote:The average citizen is low-energy, overweight, and has a short attention span. Those aren't the ingredients of an uprising.
+1

I think the worst you'll see is local gang banger kids trying to rip off vacant homes. Once in a while they'll try a strong arm robbery. Uh, that is if you're not involved in the drug trade. Those guys are serious, so stay away from the drug biz.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by SilasSoule »

Even when emergency responders do a really crappy job (Hurricane Katrina), most human beings have an amazing ability to cooperate and not turn on one another. That being said, there are bad people and bad things do happen, but I think more people were killed by vigilantes and cops in New Orleans after the hurricane than by bad guys, who were mainly after loot (or just food and water).

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015 ... ng-reports

If you live on the Pacific coast of Oregon or Washington, they say the Cascadia earthquake and the soon to follow tsunami is going to wipe out everything west of I-5. When you feel the quake, move east as fast as you can, and if you hit a traffic jam, get out and RUN!

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/pacific-nor ... e-tsunami/
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by sikacz »

CDFingers wrote:
Simmer down wrote:The average citizen is low-energy, overweight, and has a short attention span. Those aren't the ingredients of an uprising.
+1

I think the worst you'll see is local gang banger kids trying to rip off vacant homes. Once in a while they'll try a strong arm robbery. Uh, that is if you're not involved in the drug trade. Those guys are serious, so stay away from the drug biz.

CDFingers
Along this line. Not that anything is impossible. Possibly more sanctuary type events with "militias" might happen. But, the last one was a cold shower so I don't believe anyone will try it again for a bit. Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot. As far as I know such an event has not happened yet. I do worry about the increasing power of the one percent, but as long as the constitution and all the amendments exist I have hope disaster can be avoided. And thanking the stars for Texas heat and the modern circus. Placate and distraction is a proven tool.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by inomaha »

sikacz wrote:.... Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot. As far as I know such an event has not happened yet. ...
It's hard to pick out people from a crowd by their ideology. By the time you figure out what they are, you know them better and are less likely to want to shoot them. That's before you even get to the point where you might be married to someone different, have a bunch of "those people" in your family, etc.

In order for something like that to happen, you'll need liberal to become much more different than conservative once you step out of the party echo chambers. Most everyone else is hard to tell apart because they don't memorize the party platform for the purity test.

Nut jobs have one thing in common. The inability to think things through to a logical conclusion. I've seen enough left wing nut jobs talking about how "gun nuts" i.e. conservatives should be rounded up by the state, stripped of their guns, and shot if they resist.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by modernhamlet »

The US is a large and resilient nation. As such, I don't believe there is any scenario in which civil society would break down quickly for purely political reasons. We'd see it coming, probably for years.

By far, the most likely scenario that would cause a prolonged (if not permanent) disintegration of regional (if not national) government and civil society is the complete collapse of the global economy. Given how globally integrated food and energy distribution is in today's society, we're only one really big "bad bet" away from having the global finance vampire squid really screw things up for us. If overnight, companies suddenly couldn't get credit, it might only be a matter of a few days before supermarkets stop getting truck shipments, gas stations run out of fuel, and massive "temporary" layoffs start freaking out the populace.

Where it goes from there probably depends highly on where you live. In places where civil society is particular fragile (poor urban areas, anywhere rural but not self-sufficient) or where the environment itself poses serious concerns (Phoenix in summer, a poorly timed hurricane), it could get pretty bad. Bad enough where sticking together and sheltering in place isn't a long-term option without ongoing serious violence over diminished resources.

It'd be really complex. Each region, each state, each city/county, and even each neighborhood would be a little different. Some places would be Mad Max bad. Some would maintain order, but restrict liberties greatly. Some would be relatively unscathed.

Anyway, this seems a lot more likely than any other man-made or natural disaster that comes to mind.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by sikacz »

Confusion and misdirection is the best defence. I'm not worried about being picked out in a crowd. But, some groups are easier to pick out than others. Internet stalking is possible and could (small small c) lead to action. Possibilities always exist likelyhood is another thing altogether. I do like to have options and to carry is one.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by inomaha »

I could see a financial collapse as being a trigger for nationwide riots. Like what you said about a disruption in the just in time supply chain. They avoided it last time by bailing everything out instead of letting the system fail. In my opinion they should have let things fail and bailed out the people's accounts instead. Or any bank that was bailed out gets nationalized. Then banks would keep their fingers away from the fire for a while and people would stop chasing easy money.

Imagine if credit cards stopped working on a national level, banks closed for a while because they don't have enough physical cash to hand out, and businesses lost the ability to get daily shipments; since they keep little warehoused on site anymore. Cities might come apart for a while, but the rural areas where you don't get to town often would be relatively unaffected. Gasoline availability would have a huge impact on your ability to get to work.

But even those types of events would be temporary and localized.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by Stiff »

The worst that can happen is a natural disaster like Katrina. For a week things might be chaotic and looters might roam before the national guard arrives. Other than that, I don't see any credible prospect for a breakdown in society.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

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sikacz wrote: Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by inomaha »

Speaking of storms, a Tornado just went by. As in <1 mile away from the office. So we spent some quality time in the shelter team bonding or something.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by sikacz »

Hiker wrote:
sikacz wrote: Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot.
:sarcasm: Permits are important. I wouldn't want to be poached. :roflmao:
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by MaxwellG »

sikacz wrote:
Hiker wrote:
sikacz wrote: Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot.
:sarcasm: Permits are important. I wouldn't want to be poached. :roflmao:
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by SwampGrouch »

The Yellowstone Caldera blowing.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by CDFingers »

sikacz wrote:
Hiker wrote:
sikacz wrote: Hiker's comment on violence toward specific groups of people is my biggest concern. It did get my attention years ago when I started hearing right wing nut jobs declaring that liberals should be shot.
:sarcasm: Permits are important. I wouldn't want to be poached. :roflmao:
Now that was funny.

I picture the meme now: "I don't always hunt liberals. But when I bag one I prefer them grilled, not poached."

I make fun, but bad people have always targeted folks who appear different. This is why classical liberals see gun rights as civil rights, as one of many ways to defend liberty. We who are different don't want to be easy marks. A gun is a good thing to have and not need. Without one, liberty is more difficult to defend.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by MaxwellG »

What's the worst thing?
How about a war fought on our soil? Been a long time since something like that happened.

Most of the conflicts we've been involved in have been in foreign lands..albeit some of it has come home to roost in the form of terrorist acts.
Our nation has involved itself in the affairs of many nations over the last (and previous) century.
I know it's not realistic...but the question was asked.

A large war in the Middle-East might fit the bill...one that drains our economy and diverts our industry, a protracted war with serious involvement similar to WW2.
What effect would this have on our already fragile and damaged economy?

Worst or not-so-great case scenario:
An extremely conservative candidate is elected President, conservative elements gain control of Congress.
They declare a war on ISIS, in all the countries they occupy, sort of like during the 1950's a war on Communism.
We start with advisors and an 'incident' draws us into increasing our involvement, We re-instate the draft as was during WW2.

Am I a paranoid? Well, I used my tin-foil hat to wrap and slow-cook a brisket.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by modernhamlet »

SwampGrouch wrote:The Yellowstone Caldera blowing.
That's without a doubt the scariest natural disaster scenario for the US.

It's incredibly unlikely, but if it did blow, it'd be awfully close to TEOTWAWKI, even for those of us thousands of miles away.

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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

Post by CDFingers »

Financial collapse is happening this year in Venezuela, so we can look there as a model for what might happen in our own backyard under financial collapse criteria.
Despair and violence is taking over Venezuela. The economic crisis sweeping the nation means people have to withstand widespread shortages of staple products, medicine, and food.
story:

https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/20 ... ectricity/

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