Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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senorgrand wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:53 am The issue is : what turnout model to use? If dems show-up, they'll win. If not, they lose.

Many voters are probably unaware of the date of the recall. On the flip side, every voter gets a ballot mailed to them. If dems coordinate a ballot return game, they have a good chance.

Yes turnout is the key. The history of special and midterm elections is that Republicans generally turn out in higher numbers and they're very motivated in this election by the smell of blood. They'd love to topple the smug and pompous Newsom.

If Newsom squeaks past 50%, he's damaged goods going into his 2022 reelection bid. That Emerson poll points out his negatives.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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In the UC Berkeley/LA Times poll the most popular candidate if Newsom is recalled, is Larry Elder. Have to admit I had to do searching, he's black and the host of a radio talk show I've never listened to. A graduate of Brown University (Ivy League) and U Michigan law school. From the San Jose Mercury newspaper.
He has proposed abolishing the IRS, welfare and the minimum wage, opposes gun restrictions and mask mandates and doesn’t believe policing has a systemic race problem. He boasts nearly a million Twitter followers and even has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

Suddenly, out of seemingly nowhere, the Democrats who dominate deep blue California are cramming to learn everything they can about Larry Elder and asking: Could this guy actually be California’s next governor?

The conservative radio host was a last-minute addition to the list of gubernatorial wannabes trying to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in the Sept. 14 recall election. But since he announced his candidacy just weeks ago, Elder has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and skyrocketed to the top of polls.

Among voters most likely to participate in the election, 34% said they were considering supporting Elder, according to a poll this week from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) — placing him well ahead of more traditional candidates like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox.

For longtime political wonks like Jaime Regalado, a professor emeritus at Cal State Los Angeles, the fact that Elder appears to be doing so well “is no surprise at all.”

But could a Gov. Larry Elder actually be in charge of the world’s fifth largest economy on the planet in less than eight weeks?

First, here’s a primer for Democrats who need an introduction to the self-dubbed Sage from South Central, whose followers are known as Elder-ados and Elder-berries.

The 69-year-old Republican was born and raised in Los Angeles. A University of Michigan-educated lawyer, Elder ran a legal executive search firm before jumping into the world of conservative media. He’s published books, written newspaper columns, appeared on television, and hosts a nationally syndicated radio show popular with conservatives, where he talks about everything from race relations to, of course, Gavin Newsom.

“Larry Elder’s been around a long time, he’s had a soapbox for a long time, and he’s not a politician,” Regalado said. “For a lot of people, that’s a good thing.”

In other words, in a field of dozens that does not include an internationally recognized name like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the winner of the last successful recall in 2003, Elder’s “got the highest name ID,” said GOP political consultant Rob Stutzman.

Sure, reality star Caitlyn Jenner can command attention, but, Regalado said, her campaign is seen as “quirky.” Most Republicans who are serious about recalling Newsom are looking for someone they view as a serious candidate.

But where Faulconer has taken a more dry, policy-focused approach to campaigning, Elder has focused more on Newsom being the wrong man for the job — which appears to be resonating with Republican voters, who are more engaged with the recall than Democrats.

“It’s not so much the policy sell so far as it is the appeal to the emotion of dislike, the emotion of hate,” Regalado said.

Elder’s campaign did not respond to an interview request.

In the last few days, Elder has taken to Twitter to lambaste Newsom and his team for requiring health care workers to get vaccinated and mandating masks at school. On his website, he labels the sitting governor “arrogant” and accuses him of being “surrounded by an army of radicals for whom climate change is a religion — and growth and development a villain.”

Some of the views he’s espoused in the past are far to the right of where most Californians stand. But that may not matter, since if a majority of voters want to boot Newsom, recall candidates only need to win more votes than their competitors — say, 30%, not a majority.

And Elder’s poll numbers suggest that in the Republican Party today, a polished, effective communicator with a big perch in conservative media may have an advantage over a former mayor like Faulconer or a businessman like Cox, said Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State Los Angeles.

“In a more traditional world,” he said, “those are two people who would be hard to beat.”

Still, anything could happen. Some 40% of likely voters in the IGS poll said they were undecided on replacement candidates, and Newsom has raised millions of dollars to pour into campaign ads and voter mobilization efforts. On Wednesday, his team dropped a 30-second spot featuring Sen. Elizabeth Warren urging Californians to mark “no” on the mailed ballots voters will begin receiving in mid-August. But the governor might also go on the attack.

“I would think opposition researchers are seriously going through recordings of old shows, things he may have written, interviews on Fox, and I think you’ll see a pretty steady stream of attacks on Elder,” Stutzman said.

Those could give another candidate space to gain momentum or potentially boost Newsom.

For Sonenshein, a couple of key questions remain unanswered — whether Elder, or someone else, will become a breakaway Republican candidate and whether Democratic enthusiasm for defending Newsom will grow. At the end, everything will come down to turnout — which voters show up and who they pick.

“Is he a flash in the pan? Has he kind of topped out or does he have room to grow?” Sonenshein asked, referring to Elder. “I think there’s a possibility of the second.”
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/07/29/ ... alifornia/

Elder couldn't abolish the IRS, it's a federal agency. He'd have to contend with Democrats super majority in both houses of the state legislature. He could veto bills he didn't like and he'd have a bully pulpit like Newsom. Radio jocks of both parties spew a lot of hot air doesn't, mean they could ever implement what they advocate if they held office. Guv Arnolt had a tent set up on the Capitol grounds where he would smoke his cigars and met with legislators to hammer out legislation. Reagan as governor talked super conservative but worked across the aisle.

If Newsom is recalled, it's about a one year gig for the winner with a possibility of getting reelected. It's great to see CA Democrats who act entitled scurry around because their empire is endangered, just like it was to watch Republicans who felt entitled in Georgia lose two US Senate seats after they lost the state to Biden. Down with one party holding the state trifecta !
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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tonguengroover wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:31 pm Cal put Arnold and Reagan in office so it can happen again.
They could sink lower and put Kevin McCarthy there or even to the lowest and pick Devin Nunes for Governor.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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The stage is set.

The recall election asking voters if they want to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom will take place on Sept. 14. Nearly four dozen candidates will appear on the ballot as potential replacements, according to the secretary of state’s office.

Newsom and the candidates vying to replace him are scurrying to sweep up donor dollars, endorsements and every other advantage they can gain before voters cast their ballots. The incumbent has every advantage. But uncertainties — notably over the pandemic, wildfires and power blackouts for now — mean nothing is certain.

A new poll shows that while most Californians oppose recalling Newson, the voters most passionate about casting ballots in September are nearly evenly divided on whether to oust the Democratic governor.

Here’s what voters need to know about the attempted recall of Newsom, the candidates who want to replace him and the process that will unfurl through election day in mid-September.

The field

After months of uncertainty over who was running and who was seeking publicity, the field of potential Newson replacements is now set. The secretary of state’s office announced that the certified list of candidates includes 46 people — 24 Republicans, 10 with no party preference, nine Democrats, two members of the Green Party and one Libertarian.

The most well-known Republicans are Olympic Gold medalist/reality television star Caitlyn Jenner and nationally syndicated conservative talk radio host Larry Elder. Other prominent Republicans running include former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, former Rep. Doug Ose, unsuccessful 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee John Cox, Assemblyman Kevin Kiley and Board of Equalization Member Ted Gaines. The most well-known registered Democrat candidate is Kevin Paffrath, a personal finance influencer with more than 1.6 million followers on YouTube.

Newsom and his allies were successful in stopping a prominent Democratic elected official from entering the race. This is a risky strategy for Democrats, because if the recall is successful, the next governor will almost certainly be a Republican.

The deadline to appear on the ballot has passed, but those who want to try their luck as write-in candidates have until 14 days before election day to file the necessary paperwork.


The odds

Polling shows that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting in the special election than Democrats. This motivation gap is what recall backers are counting on in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans nearly 2 to 1.

However, Newsom still has a number of advantages:

Incumbents always use their office to buoy their reelection efforts. Newsom is no different. In the midst of the pandemic, Newsom has highlighted his recovery efforts, such as offering $600 stimulus checks to many Californians that his critics call “recall refunds.”

Newsom’s allies, notably labor, have an army of volunteers to call and text voters or canvass neighborhoods. And the incumbent has an enormous financial edge.

The money

Newsom’s anti-recall allies have raised more than $37 million, more than all the pro-recall forces and GOP candidates combined. Voters will get a clearer picture of candidates finances next week, when campaign committees must file fundraising disclosures for the first six months of the year. Another round of finance reports is due Sept. 2.

Money is not determinative (just ask Gov. Meg Whitman or President Jeb Bush). But most candidates would prefer to have more money than not, particularly in a state that is as large as California and contains so many of the nation’s most expensive media markets.

Newsom’s allies have already launched a multimillion-dollar ad blitz featuring Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts urging voters to oppose the recall. Expect a barrage of television ads through election day.

The GOP fight to consolidate support

The Republican candidates who want to replace Newsom have been working to consolidate support among the party’s most active members. They’ve been speaking at GOP luncheons and receptions; asking for endorsements from elected officials, donors and conservative groups, and courting party delegates who will decide who the state party backs in August.

In coming days, these efforts will break into public view. Several candidates will meet Wednesday at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum for the first televised debate. But the two most well-known candidates are not participating. Elder had previously committed to attending a fundraiser, and a spokeswoman tweeted that he didn’t want to participate in a “Circular firing squad among GOP.” Jenner is filming a reality television show in Australia.

Three days later, the state Republican Party will decide whether to endorse a contender in the race. Some candidates and activists believe the process has been rigged in favor of Faulconer, a favorite of the party establishment, and are urging delegates to vote against an endorsement.

These decisions will happen shortly before voters start receiving mail ballots at their homes.

The vote

While election day is officially Sept. 14, voting will start weeks before then.

State election officials have already begun sending ballots to military and overseas voters. On Aug. 16, they will start mailing them to all registered voters in California as required by a 2019 law prompted by the pandemic.

Voters can return them by mail, or surrender them if they want to vote in person on Sept. 14.

The ballots contain two questions:

Should Newsom be recalled?
Regardless how you voted on the first question, if the governor is recalled, who should he be replaced by?

If more than 50% of voters say that Newsom should be recalled, the top vote-getter in the second question will serve the rest of Newsom’s term, regardless of how few votes that candidate gets.

Readers have reported some confusion over the ballot, notably that if they vote for a candidate in the second question, would that erase a no vote on the first question? The answer is no. Even if voters oppose the recall, they have the option of voting for a replacement candidate in case the recall is successful without affecting their “no” vote on the first question.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... ng-to-know


IIRC, Meg Whitman the founder of e-bay spent $150 million of her own money in challenging Jerry Brown for governor in 2010, IIRC Brown spent about $25 million and he won handily.

This is a picture of the 2003 Orange County gubernatorial recall election ballot.
Image
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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Just prior to the start of the first televised debate in the Gavin Newsom recall election Wednesday evening, a shock poll showed the governor losing the first question ("Should Gavin Newsom be recalled?") by double digits.

The poll came from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4. It found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while only 40% wanted to keep him in power. The previous Survey USA/San Diego Union Tribune poll from May found 36% in favor of the recall with 47% opposed.

Unlike a recent UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll that was weighted by whether the respondent was likely to vote in the Sept. 14 recall election, the Survey USA carried no such weight, which is even more alarming for the governor. The Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll found double-digit opposition to the recall, but a dead heat when weighted by likelihood to vote. Polls have consistently shown a large enthusiasm gap, strongly suggesting Republicans are more likely to turn out.

The new poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on question two ("Which candidate should replace Newsom if he loses question one"): YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, the most high-profile Democrat on the bottom of the ballot.

Paffrath received 27% support, with conservative radio host Larry Elder, who led three separate polls released in recent weeks, at 23% support. The only other candidate with double-digit support was businessman John Cox (10%).

Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer came in fourth with 5% support, while reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner and former Rep. Doug Ose tied for fifth, with 4% support.

Two polls from Emerson College/Nexstar Media — one released in July, the other in August — showed clear movement away from Newsom over the past two weeks. The August Emerson/Nexstar poll, like the Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll, showed a dead heat.
https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-rec ... 364991.php

Survey USA is a very fine pollster.

Poll details
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRe ... f02a9fe6e5
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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The California Republican Party overwhelmingly voted Saturday not to endorse a candidate in the recall race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, a move framed as an effort to preserve party unity but viewed by skeptics as an effort to protect an establishment favorite and a reflection of the changing dynamics of the race.

Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson, who once wanted the party to endorse but came out in favor of no endorsement on Saturday, said the decision allows the party to focus its volunteers and resources on the first question on the Sept. 14 ballot — do voters want to oust Newsom.

“It puts us in a great position and points to the strength of the candidates in this race,” she said. “We can get out there and continue to focus on what we’ve been focusing on — replacing the worst governor in state history.”

But others argued that the process had been engineered by the party’s leadership to favor former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, but when he couldn’t capitalize on the effort, the party reversed course and pushed the no-endorsement vote to avoid an embarrassment for Faulconer’s campaign.

Former Rep. Doug Ose, who is also running to replace Newsom, pointed to an email Faulconer sent after 11 p.m. Friday to party delegates urging them to not endorse anyone.

“What I think happened … is that Kevin Faulconer thought he had it locked up and all the sudden he collapsed. All the people who have lined up with him said, ‘Oh, we can’t have that outcome,’” Ose said, noting that he had urged party leaders not to create an endorsement process because it would require candidates to spend time qualifying for the process. “It was a total waste of time.”

While a large majority of California voters oppose recalling Newsom in the Sept. 14 election, the most energetic voters are closely divided over whether the incumbent should be ousted from office. This recent development has turned greater attention to the second question on the ballot: Regardless of whether one supports recalling Newsom, if he is kicked out of office, who should replace him?

The Republican Party has become a nonentity in statewide races — the last time a Republican was elected statewide was in 2006. But the September election may offer the party the best chance since then. If Newsom is recalled, the candidate who receives the most votes automatically will become the new governor, regardless of how few votes he or she receives.

Forty-six candidates are on the replacement ballot, including 24 Republicans.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... -ose-kiley

For Gov. Gavin Newsom, the only thing that matters in the recall election he faces is how California voters fill out the part of the ballot that can keep him in office. Whether they understand that they also have the right to select a potential replacement isn’t part of his equation.

But the singular focus of Newsom and prominent Democrats could be a high-stakes gamble with the party’s political and policy agenda. It might also leave millions of voters who soon will receive a ballot in the mail unaware they can cast a vote on both of the recall ballot’s questions — even if their preference is to retain Newsom as governor.

“I think it’s unfortunate that the Democratic Party is not giving voters any guidance on what to do on the second question,” said Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation. “It’s going to leave a lot of people confused.”

And should a majority of voters cast ballots to expel Newsom, it could produce a new governor chosen by only a small fraction of the electorate.

“I know a lot of very smart people and people who are very engaged in political action who still don’t seem to understand there are two questions on this recall ballot,” said Marcia Hanscom, a longtime environmental activist and state Democratic Party delegate. “And the answers to both of these questions are essential.”
https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... nt-have-to
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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I can see it now. The ballot to remove Newsom is majority no. The ballot to replace him is strongly Repug. The Repugs claim they won and Newsom is out of office because the ballots weren't counted properly for his removal. They will demand a recount only on the removal but the recount must be done like in Arizona by Cyber Ninjas.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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I think it will be an epic clusterfuck. I thinking to vote to recall. Don't know what to do about who to chose. I am very dissatisfied with the second half of Newsom's Covid response. It's been nothing but crickets lately, hanging the counties out to dry with what to do with Delta. I despise the politicking he's done with it after the initial (mostly) positive handling.

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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senorgrand wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:12 pm French Laundry; his infidelity; anti 2a ballot measure; covid non-response: all good reasons to recall.

Being stuck with a right wing wacko for 18 months? Not sure it's worth it. If I could make Newsom win by a dozen votes, that would be great.
Yup. It's a tough call. I'm just so, so sick of having to vote for the lesser of two turds. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Newsom last election, just left governor blank and filled in the rest. I totally get the drawbacks of not supporting him. But fuck me, we'll never get better candidates if we just keep checking the box and they know it.

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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featureless wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:32 pm
senorgrand wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:12 pm French Laundry; his infidelity; anti 2a ballot measure; covid non-response: all good reasons to recall.

Being stuck with a right wing wacko for 18 months? Not sure it's worth it. If I could make Newsom win by a dozen votes, that would be great.
Yup. It's a tough call. I'm just so, so sick of having to vote for the lesser of two turds. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Newsom last election, just left governor blank and filled in the rest. I totally get the drawbacks of not supporting him. But fuck me, we'll never get better candidates if we just keep checking the box and they know it.

I did the same in 2018, I didn't vote for any candidate for governor. I couldn't vote for Newsom and Cox is too far to the right. I still can't vote for Newsom and if he wins this, I won't vote for him in 2022.

The Emerson College poll in July had an interesting question.
Regardless of the recall effort, would you vote to re-elect Gov. Newsom in 2022 or do you think it is time for someone new?

Re-elect Gov. Newsom: 42%
Time for someone new: 58%
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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This next election here in Texas I'm considering to vote in the Repug primary. since we don't have to declare a party. Then I can vote against the three stooges with some other Repug and then vote Dem in the general election.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: CA Democratic governor Newsom's recall

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President Biden has plenty of challenges. Pushing two gargantuan infrastructure bills through a balky Congress. Dealing with a rampaging COVID-19 resurgence. Monitoring the increasingly dire military situation in Afghanistan. But that won’t prevent the president — maybe in his spare time — from taking an active role in opposing the effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

On Thursday, the White House upped its engagement and sent a strong signal of its intention to fight on Newsom’s behalf, with Biden for the first time directly urging California voters to reject the attempt to throw his fellow Democrat out of office.

“He knows how to get the job done because he’s been doing it,” the president said in a statement, citing Newsom’s efforts to fight the pandemic and address the damage caused by climate change, among other actions. “To keep him on the job, registered California voters should vote no on the recall election by September 14 and keep California moving forward.”

Beyond Biden’s statement, the White House and Democratic National Committee are working on potential campaign appearances by Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, get-out-the-vote assistance and efforts on social media to thwart the recall attempt.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... som-recall

Democrats already lost one governor who fell into a big batch of manure [Cuomo] and another on the brink.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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