Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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The cost of energy was dirt cheap in the spring of 2020 as roads and airports sat nearly empty during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Energy demand is back today as the world economy reopens -- but supply simply hasn't kept up. That's why US oil prices have skyrocketed $120 since crashing to negative $40 a barrel in April 2020. US oil prices finished above $80 a barrel on Monday for the first time in nearly seven years.
Crude gained 1.5% to end the day at $80.52. The last time oil closed above $80 was October 31, 2014.

All of this is leading to sticker shock for many Americans filling up at the pump -- at a time of the year when gas prices typically cool off. The national average price for gasoline hit a fresh seven-year high of $3.27 a gallon on Monday, up by 7 cents in the past week alone, according to AAA. Gas has nearly doubled since bottoming at $1.77 in April 2020.

High gas prices will only exacerbate elevated inflation, squeeze the budgets of American families and hurt President Joe Biden's political fortunes. Unfortunately, prices at the pump may get lifted even higher by the global energy crisis. Natural gas prices have skyrocketed so much, especially in Europe and Asia, that power plants and factories may increasingly turn to a relatively cheaper fuel source for electricity: crude oil.

"It's a case of just trying to keep the lights on," said Matt Smith, Kpler's lead oil analyst for the Americas. "This is essentially creating demand that typically isn't there,"

Citigroup on Monday ramped up its Brent oil forecast to $85 a barrel for the fourth quarter and said crude will likely hit $90 at times. The Wall Street bank cited "price contagion this winter" and the expected switching of power plants away from sky-high natural gas to oil. Citi added that a "very cold winter" could see Europe "running out of gas" by February. Oil has long been there as a potential substitute for natural gas -- except until recently, it didn't make any financial sense. That's because for much of the past dozen years, natural gas prices have been very low, making switching to oil uneconomical.

But in Europe, natural gas prices have gone from below $2 per million BTU last year to as much as $55 this fall. That is the equivalent of $320 a barrel oil. Bank of America has warned that a cold winter could boost oil demand by half a million barrels per day, lifting Brent crude to $100 a barrel. That in turn would cause more sticker shock for American drivers because gas prices are priced off Brent crude. "We may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane," Bank of America strategists wrote in a recent note to clients.

Against this backdrop, gasoline prices have crept higher and higher in the United States -- adding to inflationary pressures gripping the economy. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said $3.30 gas prices nationally are likely around the corner. "Looking out on the horizon, I really don't see an organized drop in prices," said De Haan. "The market is starting to feel explosive. The fundamentals are there for that to continue."

While demand is strong, oil supplies have simply not kept pace. US oil production has been slow to rebound from Covid -- even as prices have surged. Many US oil companies are leery of once again oversupplying the market and they are far more focused on returning cash to shareholders who have lost gobs of money over the past decade.

Despite the White House's calls for OPEC and its allies to significantly ramp up production, the group has only gradually increased output sidelined in early 2020. For now, they seem content to let oil prices remain elevated. "They have always been the swing producer," said Kpler's Smith, "but my gosh they certainly hold the power right now."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/business ... index.html

The two benchmarks today:
West Texas Intermediate $80.39
Brent North Sea $83.57
https://oilprice.com

I haven't paid less that $4.00 a gallon for months and months.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?la ... 591588&z=4
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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Price is the least of our worries.

A fellow from Australia has noted that we enjoy greater mobility than an Egyptian Pharaoh or a Roman Emperor.

Evolution is driven by natural pressure. We have pretty much insulated ourselves from that and must now either change from within, or it's back to the Flintstones. I don't think my feet could take it.

With money as prime motivator, this is our opportunity to find the strength to change and clean up our act.

We often look at the past and note what we would have done differently. What will our grandchildren wish we were doing right now?


https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
In a perfect world, we'd be bored to death.

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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Wow. Now that I'm retired, I spend more time on my bicycle than I do in the car. I walk to the Co-op every day to get groceries, and I drive once a week to get heavy stuff. I use the same tank of gas for like six or eight weeks. I will see higher costs on everything no matter what. Despite the inconvenience of this change over to renewables, it's a fascinating bit of cultural excitement.

CDFingers
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Last fair deal in the country. Last fair deal in the town
Put your gold money where your love is baby
Before you let my deal go down

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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I don't do the driving I used to, but I'm retired so I don't need to go out every day. Grocery and household goods that were already in short supply due to supply chain problems, will be more expensive when we get them because of higher transportation costs. People who need to go to work daily and have to drive distances will feel the pain in their wallet. People living in rural areas like mine don't have bus or train services to metro areas, they need a car or do some sort of ride share if available.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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Putin is predicting $100.00 a barrel prices.
Russia has denied using energy as a political weapon, amid surging prices across Europe that have sent gas bills in many households skyrocketing. Russia, one of Europe's biggest natural gas providers, has been accused of intentionally withholding supplies. President Vladimir Putin said such claims were "complete rubbish... and politically motivated tittle-tattle".

The European Commission has been outlining measures member states can take to combat rising prices. The wholesale price of gas has increased by 250% since January, triggering a knock-on spike in costs for consumers and businesses. Energy prices have hit record highs for various reasons, including high demand for natural gas as economies recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking at a Moscow energy forum on Wednesday, President Putin blamed the current crisis on Europe, saying that after a cold winter Europeans had not pumped sufficient volumes of gas into storage facilities. He said it was "very important" to "suggest a long-term mechanism to stabilise the energy market". Mr Putin stressed that Gazprom, Russia's gas giant, was supplying gas to Europe at maximum levels under existing contracts, and was ready to provide more if requested. "We will increase by as much as our partners ask us. There is no refusal, none," he said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58896847


I agree, more wells will be drilled and more older ones could be tapped for fracking. Biden might even tap the national reserve to bring prices down. Winter is here where I live, my heater is running.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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FrontSight wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:11 pm Several years back I priced wind turbines... They are too expensive to really make sense. Unless I missed something. I calculated the ROI to be about 11.5 years.
Is that the industrial size or the home owner size? For the industrial size think about how long they will last and also what is the ROI for a new coal or gas fired electric plant counting in the cost of the fuel. Wind like sunlight is free. I recent thought about adding solar panels to my house. but after looking at the cost estimate of $50,000 it isn't a viable option for me. Especially the contracts for the electric company to buy my surplus electricity has clauses that allows them to limit the amount of credits they can give you, All those ads you see for no money down etc. are a bunch of BS.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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ROI is a measurement, not a morality statement.

To get a technology accepted by the public, it has to make economic sense. The general public is far more worried about putting food on the table next week than they are about the environment; sad but true. In very basic economic terms an 11.5 year ROI tells me this technology is not going to be mainstream for a long time.

Clearly I support the technology, why else would I be looking that close at the economics; I wanted one. That puts me in the category of "enthusiast". If the economics turned off an "enthusiast", imagine how a "non-enthusiast" is going to react.

And while all that you said is 100% true, I just couldn't afford it at that time.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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FrontSight wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:09 pm ROI is a measurement, not a morality statement.

To get a technology accepted by the public, it has to make economic sense. The general public is far more worried about putting food on the table next week than they are about the environment; sad but true. In very basic economic terms an 11.5 year ROI tells me this technology is not going to be mainstream for a long time.

Clearly I support the technology, why else would I be looking that close at the economics; I wanted one. That puts me in the category of "enthusiast". If the economics turned off an "enthusiast", imagine how a "non-enthusiast" is going to react.

And while all that you said is 100% true, I just couldn't afford it at that time.
I ask again is this for individual of industrial corporations. The energy companies have already accepted wind and solar. In fact my electric company is the Denton Utilites owned by the city. They provide water sewage and electricity. My average bill monthly is around $200 and the electricity is all from renewables since they sold their last coal plant two years ago for parts to another provider.

When I looked at solar here in Denton TX I was quoted $50,000 for the total price. Not that I couldn't afford to lay out that much money but when my electric bill is so little as part of the total utility it doesn't make any sense.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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Look at it this way - utility scale, rising fuel prices make renewables that much better investments. Saw somewhere that coal prices have doubled, and new wind installation was cheaper than fueling a boiler before the latest surge. Screw Manchin, the laws of economics have this covered.

As for oil, yeah. Fracked wells aren't long-term investments. Talking with people who work in the industry, production falls off faster than Donny's little blue pills, so you have to keep putting holes in the ground to keep production levels flat. They can boost production pretty quick. Refining? Well, that's a different kettle of fish.

The EU is going to get shafted this winter as Putin's playing hardball with gas prices, but the joke is on him - that's a game you play once. Energy security incentivizes renewables, domestic resources, and diversified portfolios. Not sure what he plans to do once they go green. Invade? Yeah, probably.

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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A widening power crisis in China, affecting at least 17 regions - caused by shortages of coal, record high fuel prices and booming post-pandemic industrial demand as it shifts to greener fuels - has led to production disruption at numerous factories.

Soaring energy prices sent producer prices to their highest in at least 25 years in September, rising 10.7% from a year earlier, data showed on Thursday. Beijing has taken a slew of measures to contain coal price rises including raising domestic coal output, rationing of power at factories and assuring energy supplies will be secured for the winter heating season.

China has approved 153 coal mines to expand capacity, expecting to add 55 million tonnes of coal supplies in the fourth quarter. Daily coal output has reached the highest since February at more than 11.2 million tonnes, according to an official from China's National Energy Administration on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/col ... 021-10-14/

The second largest economy in the world is dependent on coal and the Chinese Communist Party will do what is necessary to keep their huge industrial engine running. There goes air pollution in their cities and around coal powered electrical power plants.

I agree, Putin will screw the EU to damage their economies.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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lurker wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:05 pm i've been thinking lately, if you deny science, you shouldn't use it. any of it. no electricity, no TV or radio, no computers. "no phones, no lights, no motor cars, not a single luxury, like robinson caruso(sic), it's primitive as can be". to do otherwise would be hypocrisy.
You are an island of reason and professor of sound judgment.
In a perfect world, we'd be bored to death.

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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papajim2jordan wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:53 pm
lurker wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:05 pm i've been thinking lately, if you deny science, you shouldn't use it. any of it. no electricity, no TV or radio, no computers. "no phones, no lights, no motor cars, not a single luxury, like robinson caruso(sic), it's primitive as can be". to do otherwise would be hypocrisy.
You are an island of reason and professor of sound judgment.
Yup. My wife and I go on about that very issue frequently. So far, the cat isn't interested. The dog pretends to listen.

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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featureless wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:52 pm
papajim2jordan wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:53 pm
lurker wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:05 pm i've been thinking lately, if you deny science, you shouldn't use it. any of it. no electricity, no TV or radio, no computers. "no phones, no lights, no motor cars, not a single luxury, like robinson caruso(sic), it's primitive as can be". to do otherwise would be hypocrisy.
You are an island of reason and professor of sound judgment.
Yup. My wife and I go on about that very issue frequently. So far, the cat isn't interested. The dog pretends to listen.
If your dog is like mine, pretends to listen, but expects a treat for doing so.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Crude oil prices are back up, over $80.00 a barrel.

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I was super surprised when it cost nearly $40 to fill my CRV the other day. I can afford it and don’t have to drive much.

My solar panels get installed on Monday. 9KW @ $3 per watt installed. In the past I have paid $7 per watt just for panels. I should get about a 7K tax credit. So only about 20K out of pocket. As energy prices rise this will save me like $43k over the 25 year life of the panels. It is the one thing I can do that is likely to have a positive climate change effect. Also I think the more people who do it wall force grid strengthening rather than centralized generation upgrades which is what power companies prefer.
'Sorry stupid people but there are some definite disadvantages to being stupid."

-John Cleese

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