Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

1
Over a year to go until the election and a lot of things can happen. 538 is tracking generic polls to see which party is ahead. The generic poll usually asks a question such as "If the election was held today, which party would you like to see controlling Congress?"

44.3% Democrat to 41.5% Republican isn't a huge lead for Democrats or a huge loss for Republicans.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/co ... lot-polls/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

3
If last year is any guide, 3% +D is probably not good enough. Sam Wang has built a case that Republicans systematically overperform their generic median polling margins in House races - an offshoot of his metamargin concept. As of election day, he had the House polling margin at Dems +4.6%, and we saw how that turned out - we barely eked out a margin of four seats. Anything less than +5% is liable to mean House Speaker McCarthy, or worse.

Of course, Nate Silver only mentions the work of others in order to denigrate it.

Wang's alternative scenario maps - where one party or the other overperformed by +5% - were an excellent contribution last cycle. He's moved away from forecasts to focus on gerrymandering issues, but having a tool to correct for poll errors was nice.

Re: Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

6
22 House members have announced that they won't seek reelection next year - 13 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Some are in safe Democratic or Republican seats and others are in purple ones. 5 Republicans in the Senate are not running for reelection.

Due to the 2020 Census CA and NY will lose 1 seat each probably blue ones along with IL, OH, PA, MI and WV. And TX gains 2 seats and NC, FL, OR, MT and CO each gain one. Trump depressed the Republican census response, otherwise TX could have had a 3rd seat and AZ a seat.
Last edited by highdesert on Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

8
tonguengroover wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:09 am If dems get an infrastructure bill passed I think it will help immensely in the mid terms. We can use it as ammunition against the obstructionists.
ANY form of infrastructure bill is going to have a VERY positive impact on the economy (which is why the Republican's don't want it). I agree, it will be a big feather in their cap.

The biggest problem for the Dems is the border. Yeah I know, it's not as bad as the Republicans are making it out to be...But they are having great success in making that a very significant pain point. Lets not forget, the border is what got Trump his foothold. The Dems have to do something to counter the Republicans on the border in a manner that convinces the closet racists the border situation is under control. Its a battle of perception vs. reality, and currently the Dems are losing that battle.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

9
highdesert wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:13 am 22 House members have announced that they won't seek reelection next year - 13 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Some are in safe Democratic or Republican seats and others are in purple ones. 5 Republicans in the Senate are not running for reelection.

Due to the 2020 Census CA and NY will lose 1 seat each probably blue ones along with IL, OH, PA, MI and WV. And TX gains 2 seats and NC, FL, OR, MT and CO each gain one. Trump depressed the Republican census response, otherwise TX could have had a 3rd seat and AZ a seat.
trump’s stupidity, our blessing, Texas doesn’t need three more republicans.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: Democrats have a slight advantage in polling for the 2022 Congressional midterms.

10
According to the latest generic polls, Democrats lead by 43.9% to 41.3% for Republicans, 2.6% separates them which is in the margin of error for most polls. Both parties slipped since Oct 18 when it was 44.3% Democrat to 41.5% Republican.

States are moving slowly through the reapportionment process.
Six states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s: Oregon, Maine, Nebraska, Indiana, West Virginia and, most recently, Texas. Democrats have gained seven seats nationally from the redistricting process so far, Republicans have gained one, and the number of competitive seats has dropped by six. Some of this is because Republicans lost a seat due to reapportionment in West Virginia and Oregon Democrats were able to use their control of the redistricting process to draw a significantly more favorable map for themselves, but it is also due to Texas Republicans giving Democratic incumbents safer districts in exchange for shoring up their own seats. But voting-rights advocates are already suing over the map, so this may not be the end of the redistricting saga in the Lone Star State.

A few other states also appear to be close to finalizing their congressional maps. Colorado’s new independent commission has settled on a map to submit to the state Supreme Court; the map would add a competitive, slightly GOP-leaning district with the seat Colorado gained in reapportionment. And in Arkansas, the governor will allow the state legislature’s map to become law without his signature, but that map could get challenged in court as well.

Finally, the redistricting process is just getting started in Illinois, but it could have a significant impact on the composition of Congress. Over the weekend, legislators released an updated proposed congressional map, and it creates an even stronger advantage for Democrats than their first proposal. If this map becomes law, it would likely net Democrats two House seats and set up multiple incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries next year.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/re ... id=rrpromo


Battles between the two parties over bills is expected, but if Democrats can't can't unify and pass the Infrastructure Bill in the House and the BBB Bill in the Senate, it says to voters that Democrats are too divided to govern.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests

cron