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Yup, not likely. Adam Kinzinger is out doing interviews because of his new book.
Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said he would support Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie above the other 2024 GOP candidates.
“I like Chris Christie. I would support Chris Christie because he’s telling the truth,” he said. “And I think, for me, anybody that tells the truth, that’s important at this moment. But you know, he’s got obviously a pretty tough road to get there.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... andidates/

Kinzinger along with Liz Cheney were the only two Republicans on the J6 Committee.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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New CNN poll out.
One year out from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 49% to 45% among registered voters, in a hypothetical rematch in the latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Biden’s reelection chances are buffeted by deeply negative approval ratings, a stagnant sense that things are going poorly in the United States, diminished support among key voter blocs, and a widespread sense that he is not up for the job.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics ... index.html

It's close to the margin of error so it's a dead heat.

Interviewers asked if these questions applied to Biden and to Trump:
Cares about people like you
Is honest and trustworthy
Will unite the country and not divide it
Has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president
Is someone you are proud to have as president
Is an effective world leader
Respects the rule of law
The only one those polled said applied to Biden was "Respects the rule of law". The only question that those polled said applied to Trump is, "Has the stamina and sharpness to serve
effectively as president."
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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From Harry Enten at CNN.
There are few things you can be more certain of in life than a Democrat or a Republican winning a US presidential election. We don’t usually do third parties or independents in this country. Chances are Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump will be elected a year from now. But it would be foolish to dismiss what the current polls are telling us: Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling higher than any independent or third-party candidate in a generation. He, along with other non-major-party candidates, has a real chance to affect the outcome of the 2024 election. Take a look at a recent Quinnipiac University poll: Kennedy hit 22% among registered voters. That struck me as very high, so I went into the polling vault.

The last independent presidential candidate to earn over 20% support in a poll within a year of the election was Ross Perot in 1992. He ended up getting 19% of the popular vote. Perot is a bit of an exception in that independent or third-party candidates usually fade as an election nears. John Anderson was polling above 20% during the 1980 campaign, before pulling in just 7% in November. In 1968, former Alabama Gov. George Wallace topped out at 21% in pre-election polling as a third-party candidate before picking up 14% when the votes were cast. The amazing thing, though, is that these three have been the only non-major-party candidates in the history of polling to hit more than 20% within a year of the election. Kennedy is now part of this select group.
The fact that an independent candidate could take such a large chunk of the vote shouldn’t be surprising. Both Biden’s and Trump’s unfavorability ratings were in the high 50s in the Times/Siena poll (and others as well). They’re tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016 as the two least liked front-runners for their party’s nomination in polling history. Given all that, it’s no surprise we’re seeing other independent and third-party candidates jumping or potentially jumping into the 2024 race. Independent Cornel West got 6% and 4% in the recent Quinnipiac and CNN/SSRS surveys. Jill Stein announced Thursday she was running for the Green Party nomination in 2024. She got about 1% of the vote nationally in 2016, but notably earned more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Trump’s winning margins over Clinton in those states.
Now, none of these non-major-party candidates are likely to win. That, though, really isn’t the point when talking about them. They’re worth talking about because they are far more likely than usual to take a large chunk of the vote from the major parties, which a lot of Americans feel disenchanted with. The ultimate winner could come in with well less than a majority. If political analysts don’t take into account the fact that someone like Kennedy is getting north of 20% in some polls, they may be missing a potential sign of where 2024 is heading.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/11/politics ... on-outcome

So who will Kennedy hurt, Biden or Trump? I've seen some polling that shows he's hurting Trump and Trump, Sr and Trump, Jr have been going after Kennedy.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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"Generic Democrat" leads both Biden and the orange shit stain. Whoo hoo! Heard it on NPR so it must be true.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

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The press and pundits can keep being surprised as much as they want, but since I came off the sidelines to go toe to toe with Donald Trump, we haven’t stopped winning, and he hasn’t stopped losing. (Applause.)

Remember when Trump told us he was going to win so much we’d get tired of winning? (Laughter.) (Inaudible.) Oh, man. I don’t want — I shouldn’t get started. (Laughter.)
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... ncisco-ca/

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

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We lived for 8 years with Christie as Governor. He was a miserable incompetent and a bully. He blamed others for HIS failures, didn't take responsibility, blackmailed DEMOCRATIC mayors that if they didn't support him, he'd block needed Sandy money--and did. He got away with ordering the blocking of the GW Bridge in Fort Lee by having other take the fall.

When all the public beaches were CLOSED, he took his family to one to bask alone.

For 7 years and 50 weeks he was a total disaster. Then, for 2 weeks in November of 2012, during Superstorm Sandy, he did all the right things, including working with President Obama. It got him re-elected but the national ReThugs NEVER forgave him for taking care of our state with Obama's help. Just like they'll never forgive Larry Hogan or Charley Baker.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

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If the R's go with the orange one and not Christie, they will have massively failed. I agree that NJ was not served well by him. Yet he is the one who most embodies the foolishness that is the R party now. If they go with the TOS, he will lose, but he's already got his next con going with the "election interference" thing. The rubes will pony up again. The only hope for the coutry is to jail TOS. Maybe the R's will pick Haley, but she's, you know, a woman.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

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I would (obviously) rather see Christie as the nominee than Trump, but wouldn't want him to win. Abortion rights and gun rights are two issues on which I will not compromise. Of course, how I feel is wholly irrelevant as my state's EC votes are all but guaranteed to go to whomever the Dem candidate is.
The following statement is true: the previous statement was a lie.

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Haley is running second in a recent NH Republican primary poll, after Trump and before DeSantis. NH has a moderate Republican governor Chris Sununu as does VT with Republican governor Phil Scott. Heard a snippet of Christie answering questions at a NH candidate forum, he was asked about his past support for Trump and he admitted he made a mistake.

In one party states like CA and TX, we know which candidate will get their electoral college votes. It's down to the 7 battleground states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 by about 80,000 votes and Biden won those three states in 2020 by about half that number of votes. The working class voters who are multiracial and multiethnic will be key players in those battleground states.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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'America’s largest newspapers are actively working against our democracy. The Columbia Journalism Review, arguably the premiere watchdog of American news reporting, is out with a scathing indictment of political coverage in The New York Times and The Washington Post. Because these newspapers are so widely read and respected, they tend to set the agenda and tone for most other reporting in the United States, and what the Review found was shocking:

“Both emphasized the horse race and campaign palace intrigue, stories that functioned more to entertain readers than to educate them on essential differences between political parties. … By the numbers, of four hundred and eight articles on the front page of the Times during the period we analyzed, about half—two hundred nineteen—were about domestic politics. A generous interpretation found that just ten of those stories explained domestic public policy in any detail; only one front-page article in the lead-up to the midterms really leaned into discussion about a policy matter in Congress: Republican efforts to shrink Social Security. Of three hundred and ninety-three front-page articles in the Post, two hundred fifteen were about domestic politics; our research found only four stories that discussed any form of policy. The Post had no front-page stories in the months ahead of the midterms on policies that candidates aimed to bring to the fore or legislation they intended to pursue. Instead, articles speculated about candidates and discussed where voter bases were leaning.”

This is the exact same type of “reporting” that led up to the 2016 election and brought us Donald Trump as president. It’s almost a cliche these days to complain about the “infotainment” we see in TV and radio “news” reporting that has come about in the wake of Reagan ending enforcement of the Fairness Doctrine, but to see this same type of horserace coverage passing as news on the front pages of the nation’s largest newspapers is, frankly, a crime against our democracy. For voters to make intelligent decisions about candidates, they must be well-informed. Sadly, that is very much not what is happening today in America, and it bodes ill for the 2024 elections...'
https://hartmannreport.com/p/saturday-r ... peaking-of

Hartman usually is a reliably hair-afire liberal who seeks clicks. Here, he exposes something interesting. I find it valuable to read widely and to decide about each column I see. Sometimes we find interesting analyses.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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The Columbia Journalism Review is right and that's a big reason why newspapers are dying off. The Washington Post was much better when it was owned by the Graham family, but both WP and the NYT have been edging more into the infotainment realm and leaving pure journalism. The worst is CNN whose website will give you some sensationalized news, a lot of opinion along with trends on social media and the best bargains for Black Friday shopping.

The LA Times is mostly stories of victims who have been wronged, by the city, the state, Hollywood, developers, employers... Facts and research have been replaced by opinion and arguing for different causes. Still the best are the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal, WaPo and some regional newspapers have some good articles occasionally. They all buy articles from the newswires like AP and Reuters, because they don't have the reporters and offices they used to have.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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The good news is that the RNC is having trouble raising $$$ as the big donors are no longer convinced TOS is good for business because it's clear he has ZERO understanding of how business works or what it needs. Even a liar, a thief, and a crook like Rick Scott is actually an infinitely better business man than TOS, and Fred Trump, the same. These big donors aren't moral---they are GREEDY and they see that TOS will do to them what he did to Boeing--which is losing $2 billion on building the Air Force 1 replacement jets, and are stuck for it.

But TOS never understood the simple ideas of relative advantage that Adam Smith developed and David Ricardo refined, nor the simple, even simplistic concept of "Pareto Optimality". But all those other rich guys do understand those concepts. TOS only thinks "I can only gain if YOU lose!" which is why he totally sucks as a business man.

The asshole even claims that he's the greatest businessman of all time, when he doesn't even compare the best LIVING American business people, from Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos, to Rupert Murdoch, and even Oprah Winfrey!
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

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I still claim he will not receive the nomination from the Repubs. His obious gaslighting becomes more obvious every day, making it harder even for the "faithful" to support him. His physical and mental declines also end up in YouTube vids and on main stream news. I think it will be Haley/Christie as a very tough ticket for Joe to beat. The R's fear women, so they might go Christie/Haley, which I think is a weaker ticket. What will happen is the orange empire will be dismantled, his fake wealth exposed, his kids fingered and held accountable, and the oily connection to the Arabs seen for what it is: treason for money. Russia, Russia, Russia will be shown also to be treason, and an orange jump suit will be his fashion statement.

I raise my glass to infectious optimism.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

115
We're a little less than a year out from the general election on 11/5/2024 and a lot can happen nationally and internationally. However come January 2024, primaries and caucuses roll along quickly. It starts with the Iowa Caucus on January 15th and ends with the Guam and Virgin Islands caucuses on June 8th. March 5th 2024, Super Tuesday includes primaries in the two largest states California and Texas, a total of 16 states and 1 territory.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-president ... -calendar/

Right now Biden and Trump are running almost neck and neck, it's a dead heat.

Biden vs Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls

Republican candidates
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7548.html

Democratic candidates
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -8171.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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The mass media needs clicks, so of course they're running "neck and neck." Polls need clicks, too. I can't imagine actual voters see them as neck and neck. I always look to see who would profit from "news" like that.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

117
Americans are politically divided and polling just reinforces it. Gallup polling in October 2023 asked about political party affiliation. 27% of those sampled identified as Republican, 27% of those sampled identified as Democrat and 45% of those sampled identified as Independents. When Independents were asked which political party they leaned towards, Republicans and leaners were 44% and Democrats and leaners were 41%.

Trump is the bogey man for Democrats, making Trump look like the devil incarnate charges up the Democratic base. Trump uses Biden to energize his base. If Trump wasn't the Republican candidate, Democratic voters wouldn't be as energized.
When Democrats were asked to rate their level of enthusiasm for supporting Biden on a scale of 1 to 10, without any mention of a potential Republican challenger, only 24% expressed a "10," indicating they were "very enthusiastic" about voting to re-elect Biden in 2024. However, when the respondents were presented with a hypothetical rematch against former President Trump, the percentage of Democrats reporting "very enthusiastic" levels of support for Biden more than doubled, jumping from 24% to 55%. One third (33%) of Black voters began by saying they are very enthusiastic about supporting Biden. Once Trump is introduced as his rival, that figure jumped 17 percentage points to 50%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... S_WPAi.pdf

Right now voters are divided and as we get closer to Nov 5, 2024, the 10-20 percent of undecided voters will break for a candidate and that will likely decide the election.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Trump using Biden as the GQP’s bogyman is a farce. All because of fake news does that even begin to gain traction. Competency is simply hard to discount.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

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Bisbee wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:25 pm Trump using Biden as the GQP’s bogyman is a farce. All because of fake news does that even begin to gain traction. Competency is simply hard to discount.
It would be nice if "Competency is simply hard to discount" but the evidence says otherwise. How can a person who has had six companies file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy be consider such a Business Genius that he would have a TV series devoted to him teaching how to succeed in business?

There are several sure fire ways to make money, parading near naked young women is one, and a business where the House ALWAYS wins might be another. What business genius whose very Name is a brand product failed to make money parading near naked young women and at a whole herd of casinos.

Unfortunately the evidence shows that Failure is very easy to discount.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

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I have learned the hard way to pay attention to anything Sean Trende has to say about elections. Nate Silver gets all the love from the progressive data nerds, but - let's be fair - he's a raging arse. Sean is much harder to pin down politically. After years of reading his analysis, I still can't tell if he's a centrist Dem who is extraordinarily good at getting inside the head of the right wing voter, a never-Trump conservative - or if he's a mild-mannered reactionary hatchetman. I respect that self control.

In any event, he's the senior election analyst for RCP, and while RCP turned from Never Trump dominated right-leaning political clearing house to reactionary-infested garbage dispenser in November 2016, Sean is worth reading. When the GOP went through their 'autopsy' in 2012 and determined to work on immigration reform as a way to diversify their base and become more competitive in the future, Sean was the only analyst I read who looked at the demographic trends and pointed out an alternative path - one that followed the demographic trendlines of race, education and location instead of trying to compensate. He didn't specify an ideology, but he mapped out a coalition for a future GOP based on increasing the share of rural white voters without college education.

For his many flaws, Donny had the recipe to do just that - reactionary populism. And here we are.

So when Sean Trende, who has never climbed on the MAGA wagon in public but has clearly peeked at the map it's following - if not charted it - says that days are early but Orange Boy should legitimately be considered the front-runner for 2024 and liable to sweep a trifecta, I believe him.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... trump.html

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Good points wings. I follow a lot of pundits; Larry Sabato, Nate Cohn, Charlie Cook, Nate Silver...and Sean Trende. Those on the left are back to the "Trump won't get elected, no one would vote for Trump, I don't know anyone who would vote for Trump..." and yet Trump got elected in 2016, he lost in 2020 in a close election. People on both ends of the political spectrum live in echo chambers, they only listen to people who believe like they do.

From your link
Does any of this mean that Trump will win the presidency in 2024? Absolutely not. There are good arguments why perceptions of the economy will improve between now and then (although maybe they won’t). Perhaps Trump will under-perform his polling this time, as the GOP did in 2022 (although, maybe he won’t). There are good arguments that Trump’s criminal trials will erode his standing in the polls (although having watched Trump scandals unfold for the better part of four decades now, maybe they won’t).

These all make for fun speculation and are useful reminders that if a week is a lifetime in politics, then a year is, well, a very, very long time. Analysts should, of course, feel free to indulge in gaming out the possibilities.

But when the conversation returns to what we do know, there honestly is only one correct answer: Trump can win this election, and is well-positioned to do so.

On another thread I posted an article about Patrick Rufini's book on the emerging Republican multiracial working class coalition.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... n-00122822
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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There was an interesting "The Daily" podcast I listened to yesterday interviewing a black family/social network over Thanksgiving about Trump's gains in that traditionally Dem voter block. Those interviewed feel pretty strongly trump can pull 25% of the black male vote. A number of reasons given, but masculinity and fear of Harris becoming president (sort of intertwined) are up there. Harris was not well regarded and many blacks just aren't interested in the LGBTQ policy that is perceived to remove focus from the issues Biden promised to address and hasn't (didn't I say Biden rode BLM then ignored them?). And there's the economy. Anyway, I found it fascinating.

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The issue I fear is the evidence supported fact that it's not facts that influence buyers (voters) but rather perceptions. Sell the sizzle not the steak!

Pay attention to today's advertising. There are no facts included. Instead it is all emotion, fantasy, showmanship. It's 100% perception.

Facts about the economy really won't make as much a difference as the general impression of the economy. The early 1980s saw two years of inflation near or above 10% while right now it's at 3% and yet the perception is that inflation is terrible. The mid 1970s also saw inflation at over 10%.

Perception and belief TRUMP evidence and even reality.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

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sig230 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:40 am The issue I fear is the evidence supported fact that it's not facts that influence buyers (voters) but rather perceptions. Sell the sizzle not the steak!

Pay attention to today's advertising. There are no facts included. Instead it is all emotion, fantasy, showmanship. It's 100% perception.

Facts about the economy really won't make as much a difference as the general impression of the economy. The early 1980s saw two years of inflation near or above 10% while right now it's at 3% and yet the perception is that inflation is terrible. The mid 1970s also saw inflation at over 10%.

Perception and belief TRUMP evidence and even reality.
I agree sig230, as the old saying goes "Perception is Reality" and your perception and mine can be very different. Democrats see a gun around every corner and Republicans see a criminal around every corner, but it's based on their perceptions and not reality. People are so certain that what they believe is true and that the other guy is blowing smoke up his ass.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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The assumption now is that Biden will be the Democratic nominee and Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024. The electoral map based on polling shows Trump ahead with 241 electoral votes to Biden's 193 electoral votes and 104 tossups. The pundits see it differently, with Biden at 241 electoral votes and Trump at 235 electoral votes and 62 tossups. It still comes down to the battleground states, how California and Texas vote is meaningless. Still a very long way to go to June 2024.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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