Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

601
VodoundaVinci wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:10 pm Chicago became a sanctuary city back in 1985 I believe and, as expected since Abbott started busing/flying people out of Texas to Chicago, a significant number of people are not amused. And they vote so this'll be interesting to watch. Illinois will still Go Blue No Matter Who but folks outside Chicago will likely have second thoughts.

VooDoo
Yup, it's been a battle between upstate and downstate in Illinois for a long time. New York City and Chicago have been recipients of a lot of migrants. Those Trump pictures of migrants in police stations were filmed in Chicago and I'd bet those will have an impact on voters.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

602
President Joe Biden will meet with members of the Teamsters on March 12 as the influential union weights its endorsement strategy for the coming elections, after interviewing former President Donald Trump last month. “We realize that President Biden’s time is limited and we appreciate that he is making it a priority to meet with Teamsters,” Sean O’Brien, the union’s general president, said in a release. “Our rank-and-file members and leadership are eager to have this conversation about the future of our country and the commitments that working people need from our next President.”

The planned meeting at the union’s D.C. headquarters comes several weeks after Trump ventured there for a roundtable event with Teamsters leadership as well as rank-and-file members. The Teamsters historically is a Democratic mainstay, though a sizable contingent of its membership leans Republicans and the union has pledged to hold an open process in evaluating presidential candidates this cycle. Additionally, the Washington Post reported that the Teamsters recently donated $45,000 to the Republican National Committee, in a noticeable break from past practices. Nevertheless that figure is less than a third of what it’s given the Democratic National Committee in recent months.

Following their Jan. 31 meeting, Trump and O’Brien expressed political differences on immigration policy — a foundational plank of the former president’s agenda — and the Teamsters’ leader said that Biden “has done a lot of good work for union members.” Still, Trump has continued to jockey for the union’s blessing, posting on Truth Social in mid-February that the union “should go with Trump” over Biden. “I will stop Illegal Immigration, which will Save the Teamsters,” Trump wrote.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/2 ... t-00143532

Now we have to see who the US Border Guards support in 2024. The National Border Patrol Council the national union of 18, 000 agents, supported Trump in 2020.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

603
highdesert wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:01 pm
VodoundaVinci wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:10 pm Chicago became a sanctuary city back in 1985 I believe and, as expected since Abbott started busing/flying people out of Texas to Chicago, a significant number of people are not amused. And they vote so this'll be interesting to watch. Illinois will still Go Blue No Matter Who but folks outside Chicago will likely have second thoughts.

VooDoo
Yup, it's been a battle between upstate and downstate in Illinois for a long time. New York City and Chicago have been recipients of a lot of migrants. Those Trump pictures of migrants in police stations were filmed in Chicago and I'd bet those will have an impact on voters.
I read yesterday that the city of New York is looking to reassess its sanctuary city policy. Apparently, public perception of providing sanctuary to illegal immigrants who commit felonies is souring.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

604
I found it interesting on the Texas Primary Ballot that there was a big warning that in Texas it's now illegal to vote in a primary other than the one where you are registered. So it seems if they find you crossed the lines to vote the other primary they can now legally simply toss out your vote.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

605
Stupid. Texas doesn’t have electronic voting or what? As a poll worker in CA, it is simply not possible to vote in another party’s primary “illegally”. Any system that allows someone to check boxes wrong is a badly designed system in this day and age.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

606
Bisbee wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 3:23 pm Stupid. Texas doesn’t have electronic voting or what? As a poll worker in CA, it is simply not possible to vote in another party’s primary “illegally”. Any system that allows someone to check boxes wrong is a badly designed system in this day and age.
Ok let me try to clarify. In Texas you request the ballot from the party whose ballot you want. There is no official belonging to a party. However, the republicans had a ballot measure wanting to ban people voting in the party primary of the opposite party. Again the problem is we don’t have registration of voters as members of a particular party. What we have is you can belong to clubs if you wish. So what the republicans did was put in a statement in the front of the ballot saying you had to be a member of the Republican Party to vote and then had a ballot measure demanding that be made a ballot proposal. The cart before the horse. The whole statement can be contested if the republicans start tossing out ballots. I voted no on that measure. They will undoubtedly want to strike ballots that voted no. This will be interesting, what they did was illegal and not in conformance with the voting system in place which has up to this point let the voters select the primary ballot they want. There is no possible way to vote for both parties once you indicate which ballot you want.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

608
sig230 wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 6:58 pm Also, there were no measures on the email ballot in Hidalgo County, only candidates of the specific party.
LoL. Well that’s another interesting twist. So each county made their own ballots. I voted in Harris County.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

609
In CA when you register to vote you state a party preference or "no party preference", which in other states are called Independents. It's not really accurate because peoples politics can change over time, but very few people go back and change their voter registration to match their voting patterns, CA isn't unique. Primary elections,
As a voter who declined to provide a political party preference, you are considered a "No Party Preference (NPP)" [Independent] voter, and your ballot will not have presidential candidates on it.

If you want to vote for U.S. President, you must request a ballot with presidential candidates from one of the following parties:

American Independent Party
Democratic Party
Libertarian Party
If you want to vote for the Green, Peace and Freedom, or Republican parties' presidential candidates: You must re-register with that specific party.

To re-register to vote online, go to registertovote.ca.gov. If you need to re-register after February 20, 2024, you can do so in person at a polling place, any vote center, or your county elections office.
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/politi ... preference

All ballots are printed and controlled by the county registrar of voters. They are different based on precinct, state assembly or state senate district, congressional district, supervisorial district, city/town council district....
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

610
Arab American and young voters — key to Biden winning Michigan in 2020 — turned out by the tens of thousands on Tuesday to vote ... not for Biden, but for "uncommitted" in the Democratic primary. The protest vote, driven by anger over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, had drawn more than 100,000 supporters with 98.5% of the ballots counted — several times more than organizers expected.

That took some of the glow from a victory in which Biden got more than 80% of the vote, and confirmed that Biden has some serious persuading to do between now and November. "We need more than just nice words and hope. We need a permanent ceasefire" in Gaza, Layla Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan, told CNN. The group was behind the "uncommitted" vote effort.
1. Biden has other problems, too.

Another jolt for the president's campaign Tuesday: A jarring enthusiasm gap between the Democratic and Republican primaries. Nearly 40% more people voted in the Republican primary than in the Democratic contest — despite the protest campaign that aided turnout on the Democratic side. Trump, who once again defeated former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, got more votes on the GOP side than the total number of votes cast in the Democratic primary between Biden, "uncommitted" and two other candidates.

2. It wasn't all good news for Trump.

That surge in GOP voters was driven in part by about 27% of Republicans voting for Haley, whose support continues to be not nearly enough to win the Republican nomination — but enough to show that a sizable chunk of the GOP may never be on board with Trump. Haley's campaign might not last beyond Super Tuesday next week, when Trump is expected to score hundreds of delegates and put a virtual lock on the GOP nomination as 16 states hold contests.

But Haley's level of support suggests that many of her backers may stay home in November — or even vote for Biden, if Trump is on the ballot. That could be a big factor in Michigan and the half-dozen or so other swing states likely to decide the election.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/28/4-take ... iden-trump
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

611
I seriously doubt Haley supports will turn around and vote as a block for biden. That’s a dem wet dream and not realistic. The reason support for Haley exists is a significant number of the electorate think both biden and trump are shit and won’t vote for them. This is going to get real interesting.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

612
We don’t have party registration in Texas. I would have thought each party would have made sure all counties had the same party initiatives on the ballot for statewide issues. I have no idea why sig’s ballot didn’t have the republican propositions. My wife’s democratic ballot had less to none. I checked both ballots prior to voting at home.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

613
sikacz wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:33 am We don’t have party registration in Texas. I would have thought each party would have made sure all counties had the same party initiatives on the ballot for statewide issues. I have no idea why sig’s ballot didn’t have the republican propositions. My wife’s democratic ballot had less to none. I checked both ballots prior to voting at home.
Because it was the Democratic ballot.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

614
sikacz wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:25 am I seriously doubt Haley supports will turn around and vote as a block for Biden. That’s a dem wet dream and not realistic. The reason support for Haley exists is a significant number of the electorate think both Biden and Trump are shit and won’t vote for them. This is going to get real interesting.
Yup, Trump has the true believers on the Republican right, but Haley is drawing from that 37% of voters who are moderates and identify as Independent, Republican and Democratic. Victory in the general election in November will go to the candidate that can draw from the moderates.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

616
VodoundaVinci wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:01 am I can't see Haley getting the nomination at this point. Unless Trump gets sent to prison or Biden loses it, it gonna be Trump and Biden in November.

VooDoo
There’s a significant number of the electorate that want both leading candidates out of the race. Let’s face it, both are doddering fools on the verge of dropping dead any day and one is on the verge of becoming a felon. I’d say anything can happen including Haley becoming the eventual republican candidate. I’d vote for her over any dem replacement especially harris.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

617
With a candidate as volatile as TOS really anything can happen to basically hand Haley the nomination. She is correct to stay in, not to “win hearts and minds” but just to bide time and appear both intelligent and relevant. It’s hard to capture peoples attention as a leader when an actual con-artist is basically promising the moon with no intention (or plan) to ever deliver.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

618
Bisbee wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:47 am With a candidate as volatile as TOS really anything can happen to basically hand Haley the nomination. She is correct to stay in, not to “win hearts and minds” but just to bide time and appear both intelligent and relevant. It’s hard to capture peoples attention as a leader when an actual con-artist is basically promising the moon with no intention (or plan) to ever deliver.
Agree. In a better world the kooks and con artists would never be in the race and never been elected in the first place. It’s a long time till the conventions and even longer till November. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if neither trump or biden were not on the ballot in November.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

619
For the 2024 horse race polls to have any real credibility this far out, you need to have some confidence that most Americans are paying attention to the race otherwise you’re measuring the opinions of the most engaged voters and getting mere inclinations from everyone else. But according to the most recent data from The Economist/YouGov, the opposite is true—most Americans report that they are not paying close attention to the 2024 election at this stage. As the chart below highlights, only 40 percent of American adults overall report that they have been paying a lot of attention to the 2024 election, with 31 percent paying some attention and 28 percent paying only a little or no attention at all. Even among registered voters, only half report paying a lot of attention to the election.
There are notable demographic and ideological attention gaps that emerge in these data. For example, the wealthiest and oldest Americans report the highest levels of attentiveness to the 2024 election with 56 percent of those earning $100,000 or more in household income, and 54 percent of those ages 65 or older, saying they’ve been paying a lot of attention to race. Conservatives and liberals, self-identified members of both parties, whites, and males also report above average attentiveness. The race is very tight in current national polling, with Donald Trump holding small leads in many polls, including this current Economist/YouGov poll (43 percent Trump, 42 percent Biden, 6 percent other, 5 percent not sure, 4 percent would not vote), and Joe Biden holding equally small leads in others.

According to these data, the people paying the most attention to the race are more ideological and partisan voters along with demographic groups with the highest propensity to vote and participate in politics, such as older and wealthier people. These engaged Americans seem split. On the other side of the attention gap, the people giving the least amount of consideration to the race include groups such as younger people, non-whites, and moderates that currently trend toward Biden but also tend to be less likely to vote or to follow politics more generally. Should these groups become more engaged in the race over time, and more importantly, increase their likelihood of both supporting President Biden and turning out to vote this fall, the president and his team should feel good about his chances. Alternatively, should members of these groups continue to be uninterested in the election—or more worryingly for Democrats, start to split in their evaluations of the two candidates—Trump and his team should like their chances.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/americ ... -attention

Image
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

620
Just a reminder on biden from his youth and ageism.
In 1972, Biden — then 29 years old and a local Delaware councilman — was running against incumbent Republican Sen. Cale Boggs who was 63 years old, a former two-term governor and the state’s senior senator.

“Cale doesn’t want to run, he’s lost that old twinkle in his eye he used to have,” Biden said of Boggs, who had originally wanted to retire but was persuaded to run for reelection.
Biden used his opponent’s age against him in a way that was so explicit, one local reporter dubbed his approach, “Dear old dad.”

Biden was running to become one of the youngest people ever elected to the US Senate.

In 1972, advertisements for Biden in local newspapers and on the radio hammered home a line, “he understands what’s happening today.”
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... 7bc4d31ecb

So, it’s fair to question biden’s age and critique his demeanor and movements, as well as anything else. He shamelessly did it to a candidate that was only in their early sixties when he was twenty nine. I remember this fool from the 1970’s, so it’s payback and a reminder, you get back what you give in time. Now, it’s biden who doesn’t understand what’s happening today.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

621
sikacz wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 11:12 am Just a reminder on biden from his youth and ageism.
In 1972, Biden — then 29 years old and a local Delaware councilman — was running against incumbent Republican Sen. Cale Boggs who was 63 years old, a former two-term governor and the state’s senior senator.

“Cale doesn’t want to run, he’s lost that old twinkle in his eye he used to have,” Biden said of Boggs, who had originally wanted to retire but was persuaded to run for reelection.
Biden used his opponent’s age against him in a way that was so explicit, one local reporter dubbed his approach, “Dear old dad.”

Biden was running to become one of the youngest people ever elected to the US Senate.

In 1972, advertisements for Biden in local newspapers and on the radio hammered home a line, “he understands what’s happening today.”
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... 7bc4d31ecb

So, it’s fair to question biden’s age and critique his demeanor and movements, as well as anything else. He shamelessly did it to a candidate that was only in their early sixties when he was twenty nine. I remember this fool from the 1970’s, so it’s payback and a reminder, you get back what you give in time. Now, it’s biden who doesn’t understand what’s happening today.
And is comes back around and bites him in the ass. Biden was 29 years old when he was elected to the US Senate from Delaware in 1972. And he represented Delaware in the US Senate for 36 years. There will be a lot more discussion about Biden's age and Trump's age before this election is over.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

622
featureless wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:34 pm
highdesert wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:01 pm
VodoundaVinci wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:10 pm Chicago became a sanctuary city back in 1985 I believe and, as expected since Abbott started busing/flying people out of Texas to Chicago, a significant number of people are not amused. And they vote so this'll be interesting to watch. Illinois will still Go Blue No Matter Who but folks outside Chicago will likely have second thoughts.

VooDoo

Yup, it's been a battle between upstate and downstate in Illinois for a long time. New York City and Chicago have been recipients of a lot of migrants. Those Trump pictures of migrants in police stations were filmed in Chicago and I'd bet those will have an impact on voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/2 ... k-00143705

I read yesterday that the city of New York is looking to reassess its sanctuary city policy. Apparently, public perception of providing sanctuary to illegal immigrants who commit felonies is souring.
Yes
Mayor Eric Adams wants migrants “suspected” of major crimes turned over to federal immigration officials — a proposal that would curtail New York’s sanctuary city policy. His call for a rollback of the rules — his clearest criticism yet of laws collectively protecting people from deportation — won immediate praise from Republicans who have railed against illegal immigration. “I want to go back to the standards of the previous mayors who I believe subscribe to my belief that people who are suspected of committing serious crimes in this city should be held accountable,” Adams told reporters at City Hall.

Asked about due process for anyone accused of a crime, the mayor added, “They didn’t give due process to the person that they shot or punched or killed.” Sanctuary city policies adopted under former mayors Ed Koch and Michael Bloomberg in part allowed police to hold those arrested and charged for longer so U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement could lodge a detainer on them. But current rules, adopted under Adams’ immediate predecessor Bill de Blasio, effectively buffer people from federal scrutiny until they are convicted of major crimes. Adams, a former NYPD captain, has stressed that the majority of migrants and asylum seekers in the city are law-abiding, while condemning individuals who target police officers and repeat offenders.

He raised concerns following a migrant attack of two police officers in a video that went viral last month. But he hadn’t gotten specific until Tuesday, when his chief counsel Lisa Zornberg rattled off the differences between Koch- and de Blasio-era sanctuary city rules during a routine press conference. Laws from 2014 and 2017 “essentially place strong limitations on the city’s ability to cooperate or to provide even just notification to federal authorities,” Zornberg said. Recent high-profile incidents involving migrants from the southern border included the January attack on the officers in Times Square and the shooting of a tourist in a Times Square store.

Some Republicans who have denounced sanctuary city rules applauded Adams, a moderate Democrat, while demanding more action. “If he’s serious about changing the city’s sanctuary laws, he should take executive action or give the City Council legislation to repeal the disastrous 2014 sanctuary law to untie the hands of our NYPD and allow them to cooperate with federal immigration officials who can deport these dangerous individuals from our city,” GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of Staten Island said in a statement.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/2 ... k-00143705
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

624
highdesert wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 12:19 pm
sikacz wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 11:12 am Just a reminder on biden from his youth and ageism.
In 1972, Biden — then 29 years old and a local Delaware councilman — was running against incumbent Republican Sen. Cale Boggs who was 63 years old, a former two-term governor and the state’s senior senator.

“Cale doesn’t want to run, he’s lost that old twinkle in his eye he used to have,” Biden said of Boggs, who had originally wanted to retire but was persuaded to run for reelection.
Biden used his opponent’s age against him in a way that was so explicit, one local reporter dubbed his approach, “Dear old dad.”

Biden was running to become one of the youngest people ever elected to the US Senate.

In 1972, advertisements for Biden in local newspapers and on the radio hammered home a line, “he understands what’s happening today.”
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... 7bc4d31ecb

So, it’s fair to question biden’s age and critique his demeanor and movements, as well as anything else. He shamelessly did it to a candidate that was only in their early sixties when he was twenty nine. I remember this fool from the 1970’s, so it’s payback and a reminder, you get back what you give in time. Now, it’s biden who doesn’t understand what’s happening today.
And is comes back around and bites him in the ass. Biden was 29 years old when he was elected to the US Senate from Delaware in 1972. And he represented Delaware in the US Senate for 36 years. There will be a lot more discussion about Biden's age and Trump's age before this election is over.
I’m not an ageist, but in biden’s case I will make an exception. He deserves to be nailed for the same thing he used as a political weapon.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

625
Morning Consult did polling of the battleground/swing states for Bloomberg media.

Arizona: Trump 49/Biden 43 Trump + 6
Georgia: Trump 49/Biden 43 Trump + 6
Michigan: Trump 46/Biden 44 Trump + 2
Nevada: Trump 48/Biden 42 Trump + 6
North Carolina: Trump 50/Biden 41 Trump + 9
Pennsylvania: Trump 49/Biden 43 Trump + 6
Wisconsin: Trump 46/Biden 42 Trump +4


Add in the minor candidates: Kennedy, Stein and West

Arizona: Trump + 9
Georgia: Trump + 7
Michigan: Trump + 1
Nevada: Trump + 7
North Carolina: Trump + 10
Pennsylvania: Trump + 9
Wisconsin: Trump + 6

On importance of issues, the Economy is #1 and Immigration is #2 and guns and abortion are down the list.

Who do they trust to handle: the Economy - Trump 51% and Biden 34%: Immigration - Trump 51% and Biden 32%.
https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/w ... 5_Date.pdf
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NanoGargantua and 1 guest