Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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I'm not a big believer in polls as a general rule (I have never been asked) but this seems to be indicating that if the election were today, Biden is toast. Hopefully Trump will be in jail but I'm skeptical he'll spend any time in prison.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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VodoundaVinci wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:58 am I'm not a big believer in polls as a general rule (I have never been asked) but this seems to be indicating that if the election were today, Biden is toast. Hopefully Trump will be in jail but I'm skeptical he'll spend any time in prison.

VooDoo
Polls get eyeballs on screens, where there be ads.

CDFingers
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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VodoundaVinci wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:58 am I'm not a big believer in polls as a general rule (I have never been asked) but this seems to be indicating that if the election were today, Biden is toast. Hopefully Trump will be in jail but I'm skeptical he'll spend any time in prison.

VooDoo
Polls are a point in time, this was from tracker polling which was over several days. There are 93 electoral votes among those 7 states and Biden and Trump need at least some of them to win. According to polling at this point in time, Trump needs 11 electoral votes to win and Biden needs 56 electoral votes to win. 270 electoral votes is the magic number.

The Stormy Daniels bribe money case goes to trial next month in NYC. It's a criminal case and it could get delayed. I don't know if the two federal cases will get tried before the November election, if elected Trump will have his new AG dismiss them. And the Fulton County/Atlanta case is in limbo right now.

Polling isn't perfect, but we don't have anything better to replace it and it's used around the world.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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featureless wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:40 am Those latest poll numbers are awful. Ugh.
Yup they are bleak. Even putting this poll into the average for the swing states it's not much better. RCP averages for battleground/swing states:

Arizona: Trump + 5.5
Georgia: Trump + 6.5
Michigan: Trump + 3.6
Nevada: Trump + 7.7
North Carolina: Trump + 5.7
Pennsylvania: Biden + 0.8
Wisconsin: Trump + 1.0

Biden can't run his campaign by sitting in his rocking chair on the front porch of the White House. He needs to be on the campaign trail talking about what he's done and will be doing on the major issues of concern to voters, like the economy and immigration...

Biden will be in Brownsville, Texas today and Trump will be in Eagle Pass, Texas. They are both on the US-Mexican border.
Brownsville is in the Rio Grande Valley sector of the border, where there were 76,000 illegal border crossings in the first four months of this fiscal year — Oct. 1 through the end of January, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security. In the Del Rio sector, home to Eagle Pass, there were more than twice that — 169,000.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/split- ... tion-texas

Both parties will spin the visits, we'll have to see which side gets the most media attention.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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The dems screwed up. Misplaced agenda and a candidate that should have been a one term president, a placeholder as promised. Those poll numbers may not always be accurate, but those are huge lead numbers.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Recent polling for the November 2024 election shows that President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats. A December 2023 poll showed that 49% of young people supported former President Donald Trump, while just 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred Biden. Biden is even struggling with young people who identify as Democrats. A Fall 2023 Harvard Kennedy School poll shows that just 62% of Democrats aged 18 to 29 years old said they would vote for Biden in 2024. Many Democrats are increasingly anxious that young voters who supported Biden in 2020 will boycott the general election in 2024, support a third-party candidate or vote for Trump.
These results suggest an uphill battle for the Biden campaign to bring back young voters. Young voters, even if they identify as Democrats, are perhaps less attached to a party, or democratic institutions more generally, than older voters. This means campaign messages about democratic norms might be less persuasive among younger voters.
https://theconversation.com/young-peopl ... uch-222233

The biggest labor union in Washington state endorsed voting “uncommitted” in the state’s Democratic presidential primary next month, citing concerns about President Joe Biden’s political strength and his support for Israel’s war in Gaza. The Washington chapter of the United Food and Commercial Workers has over 50,000 members, making it the largest chapter of that union in the nation. The deeply Democratic West Coast state holds its primary on March 12. In a statement shared first with NBC News after its executive board voted on the endorsement Wednesday night, the Washington union called Biden “an ally to workers over the last four years,” but suggested it is not confident in his ability to defeat likely GOP nominee Donald Trump in November.

“Currently, many voters, and UFCW 3000 executive board, feel that the best path to have the best nominee, and to defeat Trump, is to vote ‘uncommitted,’” the union said in the statement. “The hope is that this will strengthen the Democratic party’s ultimate nominee to defeat Trump in the General Election in November.” “We need a nominee who can run and beat Trump to protect workers across this country and around the world,” the statement continued. The union made it clear that it will support Democrats in the fall, vowing it will be “sending staff, members, and resources to any swing state across the nation to support the Democratic nominee to win and defeat Trump.”

But the move by a liberal state’s largest labor union shows some parts of the Democratic base are still not fully on board with the president’s re-election yet. This week in Michigan, home to a large Muslim and Arab community concerned about the war in Gaza, about 13% of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” over Biden. That will mean at least two uncommitted delegates will be seated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. The Washington union praised those who voted “uncommitted” in Michigan and said “Biden must push for a lasting ceasefire and ending US funding toward this reckless war.” Meanwhile, The Stranger, a prominent alt-weekly publication based in Seattle, also endorsed the idea of voting “uncommitted,” expressing disappointment in the options of Trump and Biden, whom it referred to as the “two genocidal geriatrics leading the polls.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... rcna141139
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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The party elites selected biden not the people. His acceptance will be lukewarm at best and lukewarm describes how some feel about his presidency. This is not a time for a tired lukewarm candidate.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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"Of course we trust the guy who sank the economy and increased the national debt by 25% over the guy who FIXED the economy and put us on the road to recovery!"

TOS left office with a NEGATIVE GDP growth, the first President since Hoover to have LOST more jobs than he added, 6.5% unemployment and rising inflation. He's facing 91 felony charges.
Biden has reversed GDP growth, has lowered unemployment to 3.7%, had the best job growth numbers in memory, and inflation is down to a bare minimum. Biden is facing ZERO criminal or civil charges at all!

Americans are self-destructive lemmings. Tlaib has just realized that in her home state of Michigan, the "None of the Above" voters could get Trump re-elected and has FINALLY figured out that would be catastrophic for the Palestinians, far worse than Biden, who actually gives a shit, when Trump doesn't.

BTW, Trump is being sued by the guys who built the Truth Social Platform for him because he watered the stock so they don't get what they're owed from the new merger, worth about $4 billion. Learned your lesson, boys? TRUMP STIFFS EVERYONE!
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said Wednesday he would “absolutely not” vote for former President Trump over President Biden in November, pointing to Trump’s foreign policy views and his character. “No. No, no, absolutely not,” Romney told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on “The Source” when asked whether he would support Trump over Biden. Romney explained there are “two factors” — policy and character — he is using to decide “who I want to have as the leader of my country and the person who is the example of the president for my kids and my grandkids.” He said are both vital but that character is most important.

“What America is as a nation, what has allowed us to be the most powerful nation on Earth, and the leader of the Earth is the character of the people who have been our leaders,” Romney said. “Past presidents, but also mothers, fathers, church leaders, university presidents, and so forth.” “Having a president who is so defaulted of character would have an enormous impact on the character of America,” he added. “And for me, that’s the primary consideration.” Romney, who ran for president in 2012 and secured the GOP nomination, said position and policies is another category that factors into his selection for president.

“On foreign policy, I’m not aligned with Donald Trump, at least as I understand his policy,” he said. “And domestic policy, yeah, aligned with many of his domestic policies.” But the Utah Republican stressed his fundamental policy differences with Trump, who Romney said “shows more respect for [Russian President] Vladimir Putin than Vladimir Putin deserves.” Romney added that he disagrees with GOP candidate Nikki Haley, the last remaining challenger to Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, who said she did not think the former president could win the general election against Biden.

He predicted Trump might win the election, if it were held today, but said that would result in “a dramatic change in our foreign policy.” “I think that people around the world say, OK, America is no longer the leader of the free world and the arsenal of democracy,” the senator said. “It’s not the shining city on a hill. It’s now an isolated island.” Romney, who announced in September that he would not seek reelection, has been among the most critical senators of the former president. He became the first senator to vote to convict a president of his own party during Trump’s first impeachment trial, and was among several GOP senators to vote to convict the former president in his second impeachment. Neither trial reached the vote threshold needed to convict or remove him.

In a statement to The Hill, a Trump spokesperson blasted Romney as “a loser” who “continues to prove why he is irrelevant.” “Nobody cares what he has to say and should crawl back under the rock he came from,” spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/449 ... utely-not/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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sikacz wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:33 am What’s this “leader of earth” bullshit. Sounds more of the annoying language like “leader of the free world”.
Yes, we are the dominate country in the world. Our movies, music, TV shows... are everywhere. Foreign films and series constantly make reference to something in the US, like American dollars, Google searches, Apple iPhones, and American personalities, history and technology. Romney is retiring from the Senate and his replacement will be a Republican and Trump is way ahead of Biden in Utah presidential polling.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Side track, China’s domestic production is the main contributor not Hollywood. (Chinese market records)
Hollywood films contributed little to the summer box office record, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, American entertainment news website Variety said most of the Hollywood titles underperformed in China this year despite being imported with almost pre-pandemic frequency and released almost weekly throughout the season.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-08-20/B ... index.html
I doubt US leadership is really that clear in the entertainment sector anymore.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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sikacz wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:18 am Side track, China’s domestic production is the main contributor not Hollywood. (Chinese market records)
Hollywood films contributed little to the summer box office record, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, American entertainment news website Variety said most of the Hollywood titles underperformed in China this year despite being imported with almost pre-pandemic frequency and released almost weekly throughout the season.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-08-20/B ... index.html

I doubt US leadership is really that clear in the entertainment sector anymore.
In his new book, Red Carpet: Hollywood, China and the Global Battle for Cultural Supremacy, Schwartzel writes about China's growing influence on Hollywood. He contends that China has watched as Hollywood films helped sell America to the world — and it wants to do the same. "As China has broadened its ambitions on the world stage and tried to become a bigger and bigger player in global politics, it has seen how culture can play a huge role in helping that effort," Schwartzel says. China is already a powerhouse at the box office: In 2020, it overtook North America as the world's largest film market, and Schwartzel says that movie studios are increasingly reliant upon Chinese audiences to break even.
But before a film can be shown in China, it must first get past Chinese government censors. And Schwartzel notes that the Chinese government has been quick to punish studios that take on topics it doesn't want the Chinese public to see or that it feels will make China look bad. "No studio in Hollywood today would touch a movie that concerns a storyline involving the Uyghurs or Xinjiang or issues involving Taiwanese independence or demonstrations in Hong Kong," Schwartzel says. "Because of the economic muzzle that China has on the studios today, those things are just complete non-starters."
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/10814350 ... schwartzel

China might be the largest market, but they aren't the only one. DVD pirates are rampant in China, they don't have strict laws protecting intellectual property. One estimate is that 9 out of 10 DVDs sold in China are bootlegs.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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I doubt Hollywood would have been interested in Uyghurs even without Chinese government influence. LoL. My point is other influencers are becoming dominant and China is expanding in many fields.
My grievance with the “leader” type reference is that it ignores that cooperation and decision making in policy effecting other nations should not be looked at as the right of a US president. The majority of the people do not elect our president, they elect their own leaders. The influence we can project is dependent on our economic power which by all accounts is waning.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Yes, unelected "Leader" since the rest of the world has no say in who we elect as president.

We have two political parties that only listen to the shadow parties composed of advocacy groups that control their silos. Everytown is a powerful advocacy group and Democrats have given them veto over their gun policies.
If you want to understand why American politics seems so upside down these days, it helps to first recognize that both Democrats and Republicans labor under the same two delusions: (1) that ideological minority factions of their parties constitute electoral majorities; and (2) that one-party rule in blue or red localities amounts to a national consensus.

Rather than pursuing durable national majorities from the center-left and center-right, both parties have increasingly adopted the mistaken strategies of strident yet electorally insufficient minority factions that staff their parties, feed their coffers, fuel their activist campaigns, and wage nonstop partisan war online on their behalf.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/a-stri ... a-majority

The beginning of wisdom is understanding that the nonwhite working class is not particularly progressive while the Democratic Party has become more so. In the Times poll, these voters overwhelmingly say they are moderate-to-conservative, with less than a quarter identifying as liberal. This has created increased contradictions between the Democratic Party and the nonwhite working-class voters they have relied upon for huge margins to make up for shortfalls elsewhere.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/agains ... y-approach

The wealthy, professionals and academics are the progressive minority running the Democrats. The MAGA types are the loud activist minority that is running the Republican Party. Trump and Republicans at least are talking about the issues that nonwhite working class voters are interested in, Democratic advocacy groups keep Democrats from talking about them. We'll see who was smarter on November 5th.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Thursday Biden delivers his State of the Union address before both houses of Congress and SCOTUS.
A presidential State of the Union is really about two things: contrast and vision — what are your plans, and what is the other side promising? That duality is on full display in the runup to President JOE BIDEN’s SOTU next Thursday. The stakes for Biden are incredibly high: It’s likely to have the largest viewing audience of any speech he’ll give before the November election, and with the possibility of debates this fall appearing shaky at best, it may well be the largest TV audience he’ll have in 2024, period. Combine that with widespread concerns about his age and fitness — fair or not, poll after poll relays the reality that this is gnawing at voters, and cannot be ignored — and you have the makings of a high-wire act without much of a safety net.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/pl ... s-00144358

Biden needs to hit the big topics, the economy, inflation, immigration, the Middle East...and recognize that the middle class/working class are hurting financially.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

646
A new New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters nationwide

A few of the questions:

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

Right track 24%
Wrong track 65%


If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Joe Biden 43%

Donald Trump 48%

Don't know/refuse 10%


And who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Joe Biden 35%

Nikki Haley 45%


Regardless of who you prefer in the Democratic primary, do you think Joe Biden should be the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2024, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president in 2024?

Biden 46%

Someone else 45%


Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the 2024 presidential election?

Biden 39%

Trump 48%


Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Strongly approve 17%
Somewhat approve 19%
Somewhat disapprove 14%
Strongly disapprove 47%


Do you think Joe Biden’s policies have...

Helped you personally 18%
Hurt you personally 43%
Not made much of a difference either way 39%


Do you think Donald Trump’s policies have...

Helped you personally 40%
Hurt you personally 25%
Not made much of a difference either way 34%


In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more: Israel or the Palestinians ?

Israel 40%
Palestinians 24%
Both equally 15%
Don't know/refused 21%


Making it harder for migrants at the southern border to seek asylum in the United States

Strongly support 31%
Somewhat support 19%
Somewhat oppose 18%
Strongly oppose 25%


Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?

Donald Trump has committed serious federal crimes 53%
Donald Trump has not committed serious federal crimes 36%
Don't know/refuse 11%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... stabs.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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I’d say it’s time to stop knocking those of us who have issues with biden and the current dem agenda. Obviously some of us are not considered the dem base as it’s controlled by a shadow minority, so our whining won’t do any good. So those that are most consistently pointing out the faulty logic of those of us not onboard should pickup the ball and start shaking the democratic party establishment. This is the candidate and agenda y’all have approved by going along. If you want a different outcome in November, now is the time to act.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

649
It's like 2016 all over again - Voters want Haley and admit Trump is a criminal but they'd *still* rather see Trump than Biden in the White House. For Gaads sake, dump Trump and put Haley up. If the majority wants to see Biden get waxed then give US Nikki Haley instead of the pompous, pathological lying criminal that can't shut his racist, bully mouth. We are gonna get a Republican president in 2024. Let's make it a better one than Trump. Please?

Like 2016 and the Democrats, we are gonna screw the best candidate (Sanders) and force the POS candidate (Clinton) and end up with the worst possible outcome. Time for Joe to Go but not with Trump. WTF has happened to America?

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

650
VodoundaVinci wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 5:29 pm It's like 2016 all over again - Voters want Haley and admit Trump is a criminal but they'd *still* rather see Trump than Biden in the White House. For Gaads sake, dump Trump and put Haley up. If the majority wants to see Biden get waxed then give US Nikki Haley instead of the pompous, pathological lying criminal that can't shut his racist, bully mouth. We are gonna get a Republican president in 2024. Let's make it a better one than Trump. Please?

Like 2016 and the Democrats, we are gonna screw the best candidate (Sanders) and force the POS candidate (Clinton) and end up with the worst possible outcome. Time for Joe to Go but not with Trump. WTF has happened to America?

VooDoo
Shadow parties control both and their corporate agenda gets served regardless. Both parties should dump their current candidates and give us a real choice.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

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