Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

902
VodoundaVinci wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:46 am I voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. I think a lot of people, mostly Independants, did the same thing. I certainly don't want Trump back but Biden and his Democrat Party Platform get no votes from me. I think a lot of Independents think the same way. Polls show an awful lot of people are dissatisfied with our choices. Gaad only knows what's going to happen in November but it won't be good for Biden if he doesn't wise up and at least lie and tell We the People he's gonna help US.

VooDoo
Agree VooDoo, Biden and his campaign have been collecting millions in donations but if they're spending it to change attitudes they've pissed money away. Biden should be at least 5 points ahead in the polls right now, outside of the margin of error, but in reality it's a tie election and in about a week and a half it will be 6 months to the general election. Hilary Clinton lost to Trump and she had a lot more money in hand. The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows that Jobs and the Economy along with Immigration are still the top issues for voters. Orange Man Bad worked in 2020, but it's not working in 2024.

The pundits predictions are that Trump is ahead right how, but he needs electoral votes from the swing states to hit 270. He's ahead in 6 of the 7 swing states in polling right now, 3 or 4 of the 7 would get him over the top.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

903
With seven months to go until the 2024 election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race in Wisconsin, according to the newest Marquette University Law School Poll. Wisconsin is one of just a handful of contested states that will decide the next presidential contest and as of now, Biden and Trump are just 2 points apart in the battleground state where statewide races are often decided by just a few thousand votes. Among both registered voters and likely voters, 51% supported Trump while 49% supported Biden. That includes undecided voters (8% of those polled) who were then asked, if they had to choose right now, who they would support. Undecided voters tended to break toward Biden, poll director Charles Franklin noted during Wednesday's release of the poll. "If anything, there is a slight movement in Trump's direction," Franklin said.
Only 47% of those surveyed said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting — down slightly from 49% in January. That's a dramatic drop from March 2020, when 67% of voters were very enthusiastic about the election. Franklin noted that measure didn't transfer to the percentage of voters who say they're certain they'll cast a ballot. “So possibly we have a bunch of unenthusiastic, but committed, voters," Franklin said. The people who are "very enthusiastic" break toward Trump, 59-41, and those who are "somewhat enthusiastic" lean toward Trump 55-45. That's a reversal from the last poll, when Biden had a modest advantage. On the other hand, Biden leads — 64-46 and 62-37 — among voters who are not very or not at all enthusiastic. In Marquette's previous Wisconsin survey, 63% of Republican voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president and other offices this fall. Only 39% of Democrats said so. That was by far the biggest partisan disparity (24 points) ever measured by Marquette, which has asked the question 34 times from 2014 to 2024. "Biden supporters, or would-be supporters, aren’t super excited about that, but they seem to still prefer him and be likely to vote for him, if they vote," Franklin said. What Franklin will be watching: "Does this low enthusiasm translate into a real turnout problem for Democrats?"
Fifty-three percent of registered voters believe Trump would do a better job handling immigration and border security, compared to 28% who prefer Biden's approach. Trump also leads on handling the Israel-Hamas war, 46-26, and on the economy, 52-34. The candidates are closer on foreign relations, with Trump leading 44% to Biden's 41%. Forty-five percent of registered voters believe Biden would handle Medicare and Social Security better, to Trump's 37%. Biden leads on abortion policy, 46-37, and on health care, 45-35. One-third of voters surveyed named the economy as their most important issue, followed by 21% who named immigration and border security, 13% who named abortion and 11% who named Medicare and Social Security. Foreign relations came in at 6%, followed by health care at 5% and the Israel-Hamas war at 2%.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/pol ... 343281007/

The Marquette Poll is one of the best polls,
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

904
It's way too early for anything close to an accurate prediction, though I have boldly predicted Biden will win. Yeah, I voted against the orange spirochete way more than I voted for Biden. We Bernie Bros and Sisses have to accept the will of the voters.

Beer will get you through times of not the best candidate better than a poor candidate will get you through times of no beer.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

905
It is early but this is when campaigns get to test their messaging and so far nothing is happening on the Democratic side. Once you're past June it's convention season, then the dog days of summer and starting with Labor Day it's the final stretch until November 5th. Things start moving very fast. Trump has the enthusiasm advantage right, now not Biden. It's Biden's election to lose.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

907
If Trump isn't the nominee, the convention packed with Trump supporters could turn around and nominate Donnie, Jr. Nikki Haley is now a fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in DC, though she could make herself available if the Orange Man is out. Unless Trump is barred by health or legally, he'll be the nominee and so will Biden for Democrats.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

908
If they nominate Nikki Haley she may quite possibly get my vote. Meanwhile, in Ohio:

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/pol ... 343798007/
Ohio officials rejected a plan from Democrats to get President Joe Biden on the November ballot after the party scheduled its convention past a state election deadline.

Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned Ohio Democrats earlier this month that Biden is at risk of not making the Nov. 5 ballot. State law requires officials to certify the ballot 90 days before an election − which is Aug. 7 this year − but the president won't officially be nominated until the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19.

In a letter to LaRose's office, obtained by the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, attorney Don McTigue said the Democratic Party would provisionally certify Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the Aug. 7 deadline. McTigue noted that Biden already secured enough delegates for the Democratic nomination after facing no significant primary challenge.

Biden easily won Ohio's presidential primary with 87% of the vote.

"If President Biden and Vice President Harris are not listed on the ballot as the Democratic Party candidates, their supporters in Ohio will be stripped of the opportunity to associate with their preferred candidate," McTigue wrote.

But Attorney General Dave Yost's office says provisional approval won't work, nor can LaRose unilaterally change election deadlines.

"Instead, the law mandates the Democratic Party to actually certify its president and vice-president candidates on or before August 7, 2024," Julie M. Pfeiffer, an attorney on Yost's staff, told LaRose's legal counsel. "No alternative process is permitted."
Joe's gonna need Ohio. and all the votes he can get. Come on Democrats - quit fooling around.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

910
Bozo is flying the plane and I'm not he knows how to land it.

Once upon a time Ohio and Florida were swing states like Virginia and Illinois, but no longer. OH and FL will go Republican in November and VA and IL Democratic. Demographics change, just like Republicans used to be the party of the wealthy and college educated voters and Democrats the working class party. That's changed and I expect a few generations ahead it will change again.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

911
President Biden maintains a healthy lead over former President Trump among young Americans, but his margin has shrunk from four years ago, primarily because of a big drop in support from young men. At this point in the 2020 campaign, Biden led Trump among young men by 26 points; now he leads by 6, according to the Harvard Youth Poll, a twice-a-year survey that provides one of the most definitive looks at the shifting views of U.S. residents younger than 30. By contrast, the poll finds almost no change in Biden’s lead among young women — currently 33 points.

That difference reflects a widening gender gap among young Americans, one of the most striking findings of the poll. The survey was conducted a few weeks ago and released Thursday by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School. It comes at what may be an inflection point in the current campaign — Biden has erased the small lead that Trump has held for much of the last six months. Polling averages now show the race as essentially a dead heat. The Harvard poll shows Biden leading Trump 56%-37% among young people likely to vote. That’s down a bit from the 60%-30% lead the poll found among likely young voters at this point four years ago. It’s also down from Biden’s 2020 winning margin. But the decline is fairly small and a far cry from the collapse of youth support that some other polls have indicated.

That doesn’t mean young people are content with the status quo — far from it: The poll finds only 9% of young Americans saying that the country is headed in the right direction. That’s a record low, said Anil Cacodcar, the student leader of the spring survey. Young people are “deeply concerned about the direction of the country” and about “their economic well being,” Della Volpe said Thursday. Despite that, the choice between Biden and Trump “isn’t necessarily close.” The bad news for Democrats is that when the Harvard poll looked at all young adults, regardless of their likelihood of voting, the picture changes strikingly: Biden leads, but only 45%-37%. In other words, a really large turnout — one that would bring out people who currently don’t expect to vote — could hurt Biden’s chances. That’s a big change: A generation of Democratic activists have grown up with the idea that big turnout is always their friend. In the Trump era, that’s not true.

Young men and women both moved away from the Democrats in the first few years of Biden’s tenure. But in 2023, women’s identification as Democrats shot back up and now sits slightly higher than 2020. The poll can’t say why that happened, but the turnaround came after the Supreme Court’s decision in June 2022 to overturn Roe vs. Wade, the decision that for nearly half a century had guaranteed abortion rights in the U.S. Young men, by contrast, have continued to move away from the Democrats. Four years ago, young men who identified as Democrats outnumbered young Republicans by 22 points. Now, the two parties are nearly at parity among young men — just a three-point Democratic edge. The greater conservatism of young men, especially those 18-24, appears to reflect their economic concerns, said Kritika Nagappa, another of the Harvard students involved in the poll. Young men still take liberal positions on some major issues, such as healthcare, she noted. But the poll found a shift on another major issue: climate change. In 2020, 60% of young men said that the “government should do more to curb climate change, even at the expense of economic growth.” Among today’s cohort of young men, 47% take that view. Among women, there has been no significant shift.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsle ... s-politics
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

912
"Fascist or not. That is the question." I think the Repubs will suffer mightily this November, both at the top and down-ballot--not that there's anything wrong with natural consequences or with losing a finger after someone says, "Don't put your finger in there!"

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

913
Just over six months from Nov. 5, longtime Democratic adviser Doug Sosnik tells Axios that while either candidate can win, President Biden has the narrower, tougher path to 270 electoral college votes, for three reasons. Biden has been rising in polls since the State of the Union address. But Democrats continue to sweat their chances in the state-by-state math that determines U.S. presidents.

1 - The electoral college favors Republicans: The last two Republican presidents were first elected despite losing the popular vote.

2 - Biden can no longer count on carrying Michigan, which voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the past three election cycles [2018, 2020, 2022].

3 - Biden's 2020 victories in the Sunbelt battleground states — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — were due to his overwhelming support from young and non-white voters. Polling shows Biden has suffered a significant erosion with these voters during his presidency.

Sosnik maps (literally) various road-to-270 scenarios for Biden and former President Trump in an interactive N.Y. Times op-ed, and warns Dems about Minnesota:

"Recent polling shows Mr. Biden with a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that usually votes for Democrats for president. While it is mathematically possible for Mr. Biden to win without carrying Minnesota, it is unlikely he will be elected if he cannot carry this traditionally Democratic state." "My analysis of voter history and polling," Sosnik writes, "shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though [new abortion restrictions] in Arizona improve Mr. Biden's chances."
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/22/biden- ... al-college

Sosnik isn't the only one seeing Minnesota in play, a few other election forecasters have also noticed it.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

914
We have to note that the axios writer did not mention women at all. Very telling. I'm betting women do not want the .gov controlling their bodies, and they will vote accordingly. Moreover, voters of all sexes note that it is the Republicans who struggle with telling people what they can read, what words can be used in schools, and are the party who wants to post the Ten Commandments in all classrooms.

I don't think it's going to be a tough decision. Biden may be old, but he's not from the 19th Century as are the ideas of the hapless party harboring the Putin wing.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

915
Abortion is definitely an issue in the 2024 campaign, but it's not the top issue according to numerous polls. Democrats believe it is, because that's what their shadow party tells them, they also tell them that guns are a top issue which they are not. And they tell them that the economy and immigration are non-issues. In a number of states, voters will be voting on abortion in November in the form of ballot initiatives, per the Dodd's decision it's up to each state.

From at Kaiser Family Foundation poll in March 2024.
About 1 in 8 voters (12%) now say that abortion is the most important issue for their vote in the 2024 elections, highlighting how the issue could motivate groups of voters who largely say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds.

The issue resonates with certain key groups of women voters. More than 1 in 4 Black women voters (28%), and about a fifth of Democratic women (22%), women who live in states where abortion is banned (19%), women voters who plan to vote for President Biden (19%), and women of reproductive age (18-49) (17%) identify as abortion voters.

Overall, the majority of abortion voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. This is a significant shift from elections prior to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, when abortion voters were largely those who identified as pro-life.
https://www.kff.org/womens-health-polic ... -be-legal/

For some of us it's very important, but we're farther to the left on some issues than most US voters.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

917
CDFingers wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:20 am There are more women voters than there are gun owning voters, though some gun owning voters are women.

CDF
Remember, the Right to Life group are lots and lots of women demanding abortion be made a capital offense.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

918
sig230 wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:37 am
CDFingers wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:20 am There are more women voters than there are gun owning voters, though some gun owning voters are women.

CDF
Remember, the Right to Life group are lots and lots of women demanding abortion be made a capital offense.
Until they want an abortion. :sarcasm:
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

919
sig230 wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:37 am
CDFingers wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:20 am There are more women voters than there are gun owning voters, though some gun owning voters are women.

CDF
Remember, the Right to Life group are lots and lots of women demanding abortion be made a capital offense.
Yup, a 2023 Gallup poll showed 41% of women are Pro-Life and 48% of men are Pro-Life. They can be very vocal, we've seen them outside abortion clinics.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abo ... ender.aspx
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

920
TrueTexan wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:42 am
sig230 wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:37 am
CDFingers wrote: Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:20 am There are more women voters than there are gun owning voters, though some gun owning voters are women.

CDF
Remember, the Right to Life group are lots and lots of women demanding abortion be made a capital offense.
Until they want an abortion. :sarcasm:
Kinda/Sorta/Maybe

Unfortunately I know of a mother and father who threatened to throw their pregnant early teen daughter out of the house when she got pregnant and wanted an abortion.

They are not rational though.

An example I believe I mentioned here in the past involved a very far right Evangelical & Maga car stickered family walking into local Walgreens. Young either just preteen or early teen daughter wearing a t-shirt with "Under Construction" blazoned across the chest and an downward pointing arrow towards "Open for Business" written across the bottom of the t-shirt.

These folk are immune to Cognitive Dissonance.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

921
A new Marist College poll: Biden 51% and Trump 48%. It's still within the margin of error, so they're tied. This may be a trend or the poll could be an outlier, we'll know with subsequent polling.
Trump has lost support among independents and those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. Trump (49%) and Biden (49%) now tie among independents. Trump held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden previously (52% for Trump to 45% for Biden). Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are now competitive. Trump previously had a 15-percentage point advantage over Biden (54% for Trump to 39% for Biden) among these voters.
67% of Trump supporters say they are voting for Trump because they are for him and not because they are against Biden (32%). Among Biden’s supporters, 55% back him because they believe in their candidate. 43% support him because they oppose Trump.
Biden (43%) is up by five percentage points against Trump (38%) among registered voters in a multi-candidate field that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%), Cornel West (2%), and Jill Stein (2%). Biden was previously +2 percentage points over Trump (43% for Biden to 41% for Trump) in early April. Among those who definitely plan to vote, Biden (46%) is +7 percentage points against Trump (39%) in this multi-candidate field. Trump’s support among independents is also down (30% from 38%) in a multi-candidate field. While Biden’s support is little changed (34% from 33%), Kennedy’s support among independents has inched up to 27% from 21%, previously.
President Biden’s approval rating on the economy is upside down (42% approve to 54% disapprove). Biden’s approval score on his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas is even worse. 35% approve, down from 40% in November of 2023, and 57% now disapprove.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/ele ... 024-april/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

922
Oh, how I long for the days of 48 out of 50 states voting for the same presidential candidate. Can I realistically hope for 40 out of 50 this time? I mean, the orange guy is less qualified for reelection than a Springer Spaniel, and everyone knows it. He's an organ grinder's monkey with an invisible Concertina. He should be laughed off TV screens. But, no. The Putin wing of the hapless party won't allow it. Bozos.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

925
The Electoral College map based only on polling, now shows 8 swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. It shows Trump has 221 electoral votes and Biden has 213 electoral votes and 104 electoral votes up for grabs in the swing states.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/23/12463594 ... ctoral-map

NPR's map which is very similar to other forecasts but has only 6 swing states, Trump won North Carolina in 2020. It shows Trump at 235 electoral votes and Biden at 226 electoral votes. Trump would only need 35 electoral votes to hit 270 and win and Biden would need 44.

Biden is campaigning in Florida, Democrats think they can flip FL, it has 30 electoral votes. Trump leads Biden by 9 points in FL, 49.7% o 40.7%. FL is Trump's home state. FL does have a ballot initiative on abortion, but if it passed that doesn't mean the state will go blue. OH passed an abortion initiative, but Trump is still expected to win that state.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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