Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1501
featureless wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:56 pm
sikacz wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:27 pm
senorgrand wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:15 pm what angers me is that in 2016, many dems questioned whether hrc was electable. we got shot down. she lost. dems are questioning if biden can win. dems are getting shot down.

if we can't learn from history...
At that time I considered myself part of the dems. Not anymore. They don’t listen to me or people like me.
Same.
Same. I could have been coaxed back into the fold with a platform that addressed what most Americans really need but then PICA happened in Illinois, The Democrat governor purchased (literally put a million $ each into two Illinois Supreme Court judges pockets ) two Supreme Court Justices, and a host of other underhanded and brutal crap. No more votes from me for Democrats unless it is to decide their fate if I'm on a jury.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress. Hope is not a Plan.

Dot 'em if ya got 'em!

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1504
so, every swing state poll shows that the incumbent president is trailing trump?

has an incumbent president ever trailed this late in the election season and won?

look, you get gangrene in your foot, you lose the foot and live to fight another day. dems would rather die with their boots on
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"Person, woman, man, camera, TV."

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1505
senorgrand wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:13 pm so, every swing state poll shows that the incumbent president is trailing trump?

has an incumbent president ever trailed this late in the election season and won?

look, you get gangrene in your foot, you lose the foot and live to fight another day. dems would rather die with their boots on
From my cold dead hands?

We desperately need a new breed of politics.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1506
Senator Michael Bennett of CO apparently was reported to have said in a meeting that Biden needs to step aside. When asked by CNN if he said it, he didn't lie. He quoted stats that Democratic nominees this far behind in the polls, don't catch up and win. Expect other US senators to start speaking up.

Nate Silver formerly of 538:
“The problem is, the pitch is kind of a lie — and everyone knows it. Not the Trump part — he very much is some sort of chaos agent. But the Biden part. A steady hand? Absolutely nothing about Biden’s debate performance two weeks ago — and almost nothing that’s happened since then — suggests a president who’s in command of the situation. (I don’t mean to make light of the president’s situation, but Biden’s hands might literally be unsteady.) And I doubt even most Biden’s ardent supporters would bet on him completing another 4-year term until he’s 86.”

“Instead, the campaign is asking voters to make a risky bet: not a choice between Trump and Biden so much as one between the Blue Mystery Box and the Red Mystery Box. As Biden ages further, the White House will almost inevitably have to stage-manage his public appearances even more carefully and take more and more decisions off his plate. And then at some point between 2025 and 2028, they’ll probably seek to transition the presidency to Kamala Harris. This might go very poorly. Would Biden listen to his staff — or, as recent reporting suggests, does Hunter Biden have his ear instead? Who’s really in charge in the event of an international crisis? And if Biden isn’t willing to gracefully exit the stage now, who says he would later?”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1507
So who would the Democrats run in his place? I don't see anyone warming up in the bullpen. CA Gov Newsom looked a bit like he wanted some visibility on the national stage at one point. There is also VP Harris but she would need to get out there with a solid message and fully fleshed out campaign pronto if she wants to have a shot.

Even if only 3 people in California vote, and 2 of them are Democrats, the whole state goes blue. Nothing at all matters but the swing states. Nobody else has a say in the matter. There would need to be a candidate that the voters in that handful of states would pick over Trump. Otherwise, it's game over.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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jc57 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:41 pm So who would the Democrats run in his place? I don't see anyone warming up in the bullpen. CA Gov Newsom looked a bit like he wanted some visibility on the national stage at one point. There is also VP Harris but she would need to get out there with a solid message and fully fleshed out campaign pronto if she wants to have a shot.

Even if only 3 people in California vote, and 2 of them are Democrats, the whole state goes blue. Nothing at all matters but the swing states. Nobody else has a say in the matter. There would need to be a candidate that the voters in that handful of states would pick over Trump. Otherwise, it's game over.
Kind of why I'm so fucking pissed at the Dems for covering this up through the primary. They fucking knew and still promoted Biden as the best solution. We could have had a real primary if they'd all been honest. Fuck, I knew and voted for someone else.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1510
senorgrand wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:30 pm is there ANY poll showing biden ahead in a swing state??
Occasionally a poll will show Biden ahead by one or two points, but the power of polling is in averaging them. And there are more polls showing Trump leading. With the Cook Political Report now forecasting that Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are in the Republican column, only 3 states are really in play. They are the traditional Democratic wall of PA, MI and WI, the old rust belt states that Obama won, Trump won in 2016, Biden won in 2020 and Trump could win again in 2024.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1511
US President Joe Biden faced fresh doubts on Wednesday about his reelection chances from heavyweights Nancy Pelosi and George Clooney, who may influence other Democratic lawmakers and financial donors, and two Senate Democrats. Biden must decide quickly whether to stay in the 2024 White House race, former House Speaker Pelosi, a longtime Biden ally, said on MSNBC while declining to say definitively that she wanted him to run. Hollywood star Clooney, a Democrat who co-hosted a star-studded fundraiser for Biden last month, withdrew his support with a damning opinion piece in the New York Times saying Biden was not the same man he was in 2020. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, has privately signaled to donors he’s open to a Democratic candidate other than Biden, Axios reported. And Senator Peter Welch [D-VT] said in an op-ed published on Wednesday that Biden should withdraw, the first Democratic senator to explicitly call for the president to step aside.

One major donor said Democratic leaders had indicated they would issue statements of concern after the NATO summit, but did not mention Schumer by name. “It’s going to be a bloodbath,” the source said, citing growing pressure on down-ballot candidates, even for those in states once considered “safe.” Some Senate Democrats are expected to express their reservations in a meeting with Biden on Thursday, Fox News reported late on Wednesday. Pelosi’s remarks, which ignored Biden’s repeated insistence that he is staying in the race, suggested he could face a fresh wave of calls from fellow Democrats to exit the race. For nearly two weeks, the 81-year-old Biden has sought to stem defections by Democratic lawmakers, donors and other allies worried he might lose the November 5 vote to Republican Donald Trump, 78, after his halting June 27 debate performance. The president has insisted he will be the Democratic candidate and that he is the best person to beat Trump. He has said he had a bad night at the debate and vowed to stay in the race.

Asked by reporters about Clooney’s op-ed, Biden pivoted to a show of support by union leaders earlier on Wednesday. “AFL-CIO,” he said, shaking his fists triumphantly, “go, go, go.” Pelosi said on MSNBC she was encouraging colleagues on Capitol Hill with concerns about Biden to refrain from airing them while he hosts NATO leaders in Washington this week. “I’ve said to everyone: let’s just hold off. Whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately, but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see how we go this week,” she said, describing Biden’s strong remarks at the NATO summit on Tuesday as “spectacular.” She declined to say definitively that she wanted Biden to run. “I want him to do whatever he decides to do,” she said. “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short.” Biden’s campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and senior advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti will brief Senate Democrats at a lunch on Thursday, Biden’s campaign said.

Asked to comment on Pelosi’s remarks and Clooney’s article, Biden’s campaign pointed to a letter he sent Democrats in Congress saying he was “firmly committed” to staying in the race and beating Trump. In his opinion piece, Clooney wrote: "It's devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe 'big F-ing deal' Biden of 2010. He wasn't even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate," Clooney wrote. "We are not going to win in November with this president. On top of that, we won't win the House, and we're going to lose the Senate."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden- ... 024-07-10/

Since at least January the polls have been showing that Americans thought Biden was too old and wanted another candidate. In a hypothetical match up, they believed Trump would win. Democrats didn't take the polls seriously because the Biden campaign told them the polls were wrong and that Biden was ahead and not Trump. They drank the Kool-Aid believing only the party line. If they stopped drinking the Kool-Aid sooner, they could have had a chance of winning in November.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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featureless wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:44 pm Kind of why I'm so fucking pissed at the Dems for covering this up through the primary. They fucking knew and still promoted Biden as the best solution. We could have had a real primary if they'd all been honest. Fuck, I knew and voted for someone else.
:wall: Exactly my perspective and opinion.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress. Hope is not a Plan.

Dot 'em if ya got 'em!

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1513
VodoundaVinci wrote: Thu Jul 11, 2024 10:21 am
featureless wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 6:44 pm Kind of why I'm so fucking pissed at the Dems for covering this up through the primary. They fucking knew and still promoted Biden as the best solution. We could have had a real primary if they'd all been honest. Fuck, I knew and voted for someone else.
:wall: Exactly my perspective and opinion.

VooDoo
Same here as well!
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1514
A true Washington psychodrama will unfold today a mile from the White House, at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center. A red-hot press corps — which feels ignored, used and deceived — will get its first true unfiltered crack at grilling President Biden, the most media-sheltered president of modern times. "The dogs are loose," a Biden adviser told us. Biden, bitter over media coverage of his age and acuity, gets his shot at redemption — a chance to show the press and public he can think fast, handle the heat, and spar and speak improvisationally without glitching. The stakes are even higher than during the first presidential debate. If Biden looks weak and wobbly, his Democratic critics will pounce and crank up resignation calls. If he looks strong and steady, the anti-Biden campaign could stall. Biden's every word and move will be dissected, every mangled sentence scrutinized, every stiff move or mind freeze discussed. Senior Democrats are increasingly bearish about the chances Biden stays at the top of the ticket. "I think this weekend is critical," said a former top government official. "I expect key conversations to happen at the end of the week after NATO. But the reality is setting in. The numbers are bad. The money is frozen. The path isn't there." A top Democratic operative said of today's press conference: "If he performs well, it still doesn't put it to rest. He's got to do that over and over and over. That's the problem for him."

Another former official said: "If he does push-ups on stage, it doesn't matter" — the damage was done when 50+ million saw the debate. The intrigue, Part 1: Don't underestimate reporters' bitterness at this White House. A natural tension always exists. But this is different: Biden has operated in a protective bubble, often hermetically sealed from tough questioning. Many reporters believe the White House hid signs of Biden's aging, and played them or badgered them when they did push on the topic. Many are being harassed on social media for being too soft on Biden. In our experience, most reporters are more insecure than people think, and highly sensitive to how friends and foes see them, especially on X. This helps explain the recent eruptions by correspondents at the daily on-camera press briefings. (In this archaic ritual, reporters sit with their competitors and share what's on their minds, in return for predictable talking points. But we digress.) Post-debate, reporters have been much more combative and skeptical. This will uncork at 5:30 p.m. ET today at Biden's first real "big boy" press conference in — well, forever. It'll come after a fairly long day of work at the NATO summit.

The intrigue, Part 2: Biden has a love-hate relationship with the media. He loves the gang on "Morning Joe" and right now hates The New York Times, which has covered his post-debate mess aggressively. The New York Times Opinion section has been relentless on Biden: two unsigned editorials + multiple columns by Tom Friedman and Nick Kristoff (again!), and opinion pieces by George Clooney and James Carville. All have been blunt, some brutal. The Biden White House has been apoplectic about it. Truth is, White House aides shielded Biden from tough press-corps questioning until tonight, because they feared a moment like the last debate. He rarely faces tough questioning in public. So some aides are deeply worried about his capacity to pull this off. They know he could make matters worse. A debate-like performance might end things. Like the debate, this is a time, venue and risk of the White House's choosing. Despite promising more improvisational moments to validate his fitness and lucidity, Biden has done the ABC interview and his "Morning Joe" call-in. The rest is choreography. Biden pretended to do free-flowing interviews with friendly Black radio hosts over the weekend — only to get busted for feeding them pre-written questions. One radio host lost her job for taking the bait. White House officials point to Biden's 47 interviews this year (one-third Donald Trump's rate for interviews and pressers at this point in office) and 580 on-the-fly "gaggles" with reporters while in office.

Biden will do an interview in Austin on Monday with NBC's Lester Holt — airing as a prime-time special at 9 p.m. ET, counterprogramming the opening night of the Republican convention. Biden aides savored a pre-debate Media Matters for America tally saying "five of the top US newspapers have published nearly 10 times as many articles focused just on Biden's age or mental acuity as focused on just Trump's." David E. Sanger — White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times, and author of this spring's "New Cold Wars" — tells us the press-government tension is healthy. "If your ideal is placid, agreeable press conferences," he said, "the Kremlin and Chinese foreign ministry run them daily." But Sanger said the White House "deflected for months, or years, questions about the president's health and diagnoses ... The question is whether the president can win back the lost confidence. I don't know. But what I would seek as a White House reporter would be evidence that the president has been exhaustively tested and all relevant information has been fully disclosed."
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden- ... rence-2024
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1517
For the press conference I predict:

- Biden will have good energy
- Biden will want to talk about his accomplishments
- The press will ignore Biden and ask lots of questions about his health
- The press will then report that Biden refused to answer questions about his health and tried to distract them with his policies and accomplishments
106+ recreational uses of firearms
1 defensive use
0 people injured
0 people killed

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1522
I'm looking forward to Biden having another chance to indicate that he's up to the task at hand and gain some degree of credibility. Or hang himself definitively (again) so we can get on with it.

I just wanna get on with it/see America get over this obsession and start dealing with the real problems. Get on with it.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress. Hope is not a Plan.

Dot 'em if ya got 'em!

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