Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

So many executive orders, so much twitter. What to do? Well, discuss it here for one...

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Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#1 Post by TrueTexan » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:59 pm

With the trade war adversely affecting agricultural interest from cost to cost. Will this be enough to cause red states to swing blue?
In an interview with farmers in Michigan who are seeing the agricultural tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump possibly destroy their livelihood, the Detroit News reports they can’t even get their congressional representatives to stand up for them.

According to David Williams, a fifth-generation soybean farmer in Elise, Michigan, the 25 percent tariff imposed by China in retaliation for the president’s tariffs is killing the agricultural sector.

“Nobody wins in a trade war,” said Williams, the 67-year-old president of the Michigan Soybean Association. “We’re not going to win. China’s not going to win. In the meantime, soybean farmers are just hurting.”

According to the report, “With farm net incomes down nearly 60 percent since 2013, many farmers who supported the president in 2016 are feeling further strain as they face the repercussions of an intensifying trade war. The price of soybeans has plunged 17 percent in the past month. Williams has seen $2 less per bushel of soybeans, about a 20 percent decrease.”

Williams pointed the finger directly at President Donald Trump, who he believes was put in the White House by rural mid-westerners like himself.

“I feel like agriculture has supported the current administration,” Williams explained. “I don’t feel that support coming back to us.”

According to Williams, Trump’s tariffs were put in place over disputes over intellectual property, and that the retaliatory Chinese tariffs have turned farmers into collateral damage.

“The farmers didn’t do it,” Williams said. “We’re the bright spot in the economy.”

He went on to explain that declining farm income means less money to be spent on new equipment which will have a ripple effect on the manufacturing sector.

Worst of all, Williams says that, after a visit to Washington D.C. to meet with lawmakers and White House officials, farmers’ worries are being ignored.

“So far,” he lamented, “our pleas have fallen on deaf ears.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/pleas- ... velihoods/

The same is being heard down here in Texas but some are still hoping it will be okay.
President Donald Trump — and by extension many of the nation's farmers — is seeing that lesson in action after he launched a bevy of tariffs against China on Friday, prompting the People's Republic to retaliate with its own tariffs on imports from the United States. Among those American goods are some key Texas exports, including cotton, corn and sorghum. Some of the Chinese goods targeted in Trump's tariffs are vital parts for Texas' agriculture industry, such as livestock equipment.

"No question, it's going to hurt," said Gene Hall, a spokesperson for the Texas Farm Bureau.

Throughout his presidential campaign and since he was inaugurated, Trump has threatened to amp up protectionist measures on the world's second-largest economy. It was a campaign issue that resonated with many Trump voters, including many Texas farmers.

"We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S.," Trump tweeted in April. "Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue!"

On Friday, the United States levied tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responded with its own tariffs on $34 billion in U.S. exports.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce called the United States a "typical trade bully" set on igniting the largest trade war in history and violating World Trade Organization agreements.

"Instead of serving the interests of U.S. companies and people, the move will prove to be counter-productive and damaging," the Chinese commerce minister said in a statement.

For Texas farmers, the trade war plays havoc with their bottom line. Tens of billions of dollars of goods are traded between China and Texas each year. Texas exported $42 billion in goods to the country in 2017, second only to Mexico.

Cotton is the state's 10th largest export. Nearly half of the U.S. cotton exported to China comes from Texas. Soy is a smaller market for Texas, but China is the state's largest international soy customer. Texas exports about $157 million worth of corn a year, making it the 13th largest exporter of the crop in the country, though U.S. corn exports to China have dropped precipitously over the past few years due to increased regulations on the Chinese side.

Wesley Spurlock, a corn farmer in Stratford and chairman of the National Corn Growers Association, said the weeks of talk of a trade war have already hurt Texas farmers. The prices of corn and soy have both decreased by around 15 percent since mid-May. The price of cotton has decreased by over 11 percent since mid-June. Spurlock credits those declines with the threat of tariffs, a situation that could be exacerbated with their enactment.

Dee Vaughan, a corn and cotton farmer from the Panhandle, said even the threat of tariffs has caused shipping companies to be more hesitant buying his crop. Prices had already been low going into the spring, he said, though farmers were "cautiously optimistic" about this year's revenues. But "simply because of the uncertainty, if nothing else, all the rhetoric that's going on" for the past few months has been keeping farmers worried that they'll be able to make fewer sales.

"You couldn't pick a worse time for agriculture to be in a trade dispute," said Hall, the Texas Farm Bureau spokesperson, pointing to a 50 percent decline in agricultural income since 2013. He said the farm bureau always supports negotiating trade disputes over gratuitous tariffs — but that many farmers hope the president's actions will force China, which has historically acted in ways that have harmed Texas agriculture, to the negotiating table.

"There is some patience in the agricultural community for what the president's doing, but there is some angst as well," Hall said.

As China's middle class expands and demand for protein grows, soy has become essential in providing feed for the country's growing beef industry, Spurlock said. China imports more than half of American soybeans, and the United States is the second-largest soy exporter to China, representing about 34 percent of the country's soy imports. Spurlock fears the new tariffs will push Chinese consumers to look to other producers to get their soy, such as Brazil, which already accounts for more than half of all soy imports in China.

The tariffs will also make agricultural equipment more expensive, but Spurlock said those rising costs are more of an inconvenience than a damning new expense. Vaughan echoed that sentiment, saying he is more concerned about not being able to sell his crop than the rising cost of farm equipment since he doesn't need to buy equipment very often.

Though the agriculture industry will face a bitter few months with rising costs and damaged competitiveness, Spurlock said he hopes the tariffs work to improve and smooth trade between the United States and China, whose byzantine bureaucracy makes penetrating the market slow and cumbersome. If the tariffs work to bring China to the table to expedite trade allowing corn to become a major export to China, Spurlock said the United States could become the world's leading food producer.

But when asked if he is optimistic the tariffs will work, Spurlock said, "I have to be optimistic."
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/11 ... s-farmers/
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#2 Post by highdesert » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:15 pm

We'll see in November unless the Liar-in-Chief (LIC) reverses course quickly and is able to lie his way out of it. He meets with his handler this week (Putin), he'll get his orders. US voters are fickle, I'm not betting on them blaming the LIC.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#3 Post by Greengunner » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:35 pm

I don't think Trump is going to lose any voters. The question is, will folks turn out for whoever is running against him. That was the question in 2016 and it will be the question in 2020.

Remember, Trump's numbers started taking off when he started calling Mexicans rapists. The more nativist/racist he sounded, the more traction he gained. It's always been about that. We may feel sick and ashamed when we see images of children in cages, but for lots and lots and lots of people, that is what they voted for. That is the promise kept, and even if Trump's economic promises don't pan out, even if his policies actually hurt them, those images will be enough for them to pull the lever again.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#4 Post by SubRosa » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:59 pm

And they are truly stupid bigots...

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#5 Post by K9s » Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:03 am

I think it can make a difference in some swing states. I am sure there are reps running to the middle ground somewhere in America, but all I see are reps spouting right-wing anti-immigrant poison down here. Hopefully, that will turn out the non-rep voters.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#6 Post by Bardo » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:43 am

When it was bush there was 10x more energy, protests, talk. Now there seems to be little opposition or enthusiam to do anything. I predict a lame turnout and a second term.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#7 Post by YankeeTarheel » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:53 am

When a guy and his party support the virtual burning down of your farm, then if you vote for him and his party, I have not one shred of sympathy (or, as my elder son says "I have no fucks to give!") for you or your ruined farm.
You voted for this shit ignoring what he'd said he'd do to you, and then when he did it, you voted for him anyway. As far as I'm concerned, you're on your own.
Kansas is already sinking itself, and if Trump's trade war destroys it, well Kansans chose their fate.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#8 Post by eelj » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:35 am

2020 is a long ways off, I'm thinking in terms of the mid terms coming up. I believe the make up of state and congressional reps plus governors determine the color of the state.

The RNC is spending a lot of money to turn the state of Mn red, and the trade war could swing one part of the state red that has been solidly blue, but it could also turn another part of the state blue or at least purple.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#9 Post by Elmo » Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:11 pm

K9s wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:03 am
I think it can make a difference in some swing states...
... and swing Congressional districts.

California is a deep blue state, but still sends a lot of right-wing Rethugs to Congress from rural inland districts. The economy of many of these districts, in the Central Valley and elsewhere, is heavily dependent on export-oriented agriculture.

Could be a factor, if the Dems field strong candidates who are smart enough to make it a factor.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#10 Post by K9s » Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:17 pm

Bardo wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:43 am
When it was bush there was 10x more energy, protests, talk. Now there seems to be little opposition or enthusiam to do anything. I predict a lame turnout and a second term.
Not sure where you live. That doesn't describe what I see down here. I think Doug Jones is an example of that.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#11 Post by Bardo » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:26 pm

I see it more like even a child molestor almost won....

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#12 Post by K9s » Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:18 pm

Bardo wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:26 pm
I see it more like even a child molestor almost won....
I could name countless examples where embarrassing (to the rest of us) candidates win in ruby red states. This was one of the first times when they did not. Remember Montana Congressman Greg Gianforte? I bet even Jim Jordan won't lose his next election, but at least there is a chance he won't win - for once.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#13 Post by Bardo » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:27 pm

jordan will not loose. We are long past a mere homo voyeurism as a repube embarrassment. I mean if he played ball with that, hes a rightwing asset.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#14 Post by highdesert » Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:11 pm

Elmo wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:11 pm
K9s wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:03 am
I think it can make a difference in some swing states...
... and swing Congressional districts.

California is a deep blue state, but still sends a lot of right-wing Rethugs to Congress from rural inland districts. The economy of many of these districts, in the Central Valley and elsewhere, is heavily dependent on export-oriented agriculture.

Could be a factor, if the Dems field strong candidates who are smart enough to make it a factor.
I agree, the EU and China were smart in the sectors they targeted for their tariff increases and many of those businesses and crops are in CA. I think MacCarthy and Nunes are safe, but there are other Central Valley Republican seats that are vulnerable.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#15 Post by TrueTexan » Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:48 pm

Elmo wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:11 pm
K9s wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:03 am
I think it can make a difference in some swing states...
... and swing Congressional districts.

California is a deep blue state, but still sends a lot of right-wing Rethugs to Congress from rural inland districts. The economy of many of these districts, in the Central Valley and elsewhere, is heavily dependent on export-oriented agriculture.

Could be a factor, if the Dems field strong candidates who are smart enough to make it a factor.
Texas is in the same shape. Much of our rural areas like west Texas other crop areas are dependent on agricultural exports. Already we have a good chance to get rid of Teddy Cruz and the idiot AG Ken Paxton along with many GOP house Members. Sorry Louie Gohmert is still in a safe district.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#16 Post by K9s » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:28 pm

It will be interesting to see polls in autumn. I wonder if Reps will subsidize farmers and industries for losses just before mid-terms? That sounds likely. And Cruz, et al. would take credit.

Is it "Republican" to do that? No. But those nationalists are not actually conservatives.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#17 Post by ErikO » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:10 am

We should see another group or two bypass the GOP and DP as both parties have been complicit in the trade wars with China and now the rest of the world as a way of making every single member of the Senate and the majority of the House of Representatives into Millionaires.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#18 Post by K9s » Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:42 pm

ErikO wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:10 am
We should see another group or two bypass the GOP and DP as both parties have been complicit in the trade wars with China and now the rest of the world as a way of making every single member of the Senate and the majority of the House of Representatives into Millionaires.
Maybe the Whig & Democratic parties transformation is a way to look at it. Republican party came about as a backlash to Dem pro-slavery in the 1800s. Whig party dissolved. Then the Dems and Reps switched places in terms of civil rights policies. This time, the Libertarians and other parties might take in the disaffected Republicans until the Republican party becomes a minor party or dissolves. I really don't see the Rep party surviving much longer as "the" major second party. We could even see a true multi-party system in the US.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#19 Post by TrueTexan » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:01 pm

K9s wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:42 pm
ErikO wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:10 am
We should see another group or two bypass the GOP and DP as both parties have been complicit in the trade wars with China and now the rest of the world as a way of making every single member of the Senate and the majority of the House of Representatives into Millionaires.
Maybe the Whig & Democratic parties transformation is a way to look at it. Republican party came about as a backlash to Dem pro-slavery in the 1800s. Whig party dissolved. Then the Dems and Reps switched places in terms of civil rights policies. This time, the Libertarians and other parties might take in the disaffected Republicans until the Republican party becomes a minor party or dissolves. I really don't see the Rep party surviving much longer as "the" major second party. We could even see a true multi-party system in the US.
I started this thread before the Turnip Pootin lovefest. Now I could see more Dems being elected in the short run 2018 election. In the long term I could see at least three parties. The Christian Nationalist party made up of the Trumpians and the Evangelical rightwing. The Cenertist made up of the few moderate Reptillians and the Corporate Dems like Hillary. In the middle as a swing group last on the left would be the Progressives being the the liberal Dems and the far left groups .
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#20 Post by ErikO » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:05 pm

First Past the Post, gerrymandering, candidate sinking and backroom deals will keep non-red/blue candidates out. Until it is too late.
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#21 Post by K9s » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:52 pm

ErikO wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:05 pm
First Past the Post, gerrymandering, candidate sinking and backroom deals will keep non-red/blue candidates out. Until it is too late.
Don't forget good old voter suppression! It has been working for more than a century!
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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#22 Post by VodoundaVinci » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:10 pm

Just sent Bernie an email today - his campaign is looking for another donation from me and I told 'em no money for Democrats - no Votes for a Democrat. After what they did in 2016 they get no more from me. Bernie needs to go third party or he goes it alone from my perspective.

As far as more States going Blue because of Trumps Trade War it depends on what happens. The Stock Market seems to feel the US will gain more from the Trade War with China and stocks are surprisingly holding their own. All of this is a very high stakes game and only the richest of the rich and Global Oligarchs have a say.

It would not surprise me if things actually improved enough because of this manipulation (trade war/stock market manipulation) to make Trump look good and repress the "Blue Wave" we all are certain is coming.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#23 Post by featureless » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:15 pm

My belief in the coming blue wave is similar to my belief in the tooth fairy--I'm still waiting for some (hope and) change under my pillow.

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Re: Will Turnip's trade war cause more states to go Blue?

#24 Post by Bardo » Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:12 pm

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