Beto O'Rourke 2020

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#126 Post by featureless » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:54 pm

max129 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:32 pm
I am aware that I am not in the main stream on this for the forum. And I would do nothing to harm the rights of my fellow gun owners.

--- But ---

I believe there is a serious chance of weapons bans, magazine restrictions and ammo type bans in the next 5 years.
I'm with you on this line of thought. I don't think confiscation will occur, but there will be continued efforts to make ownership as painful and expensive as possible. All it will take is an emergency executive order for an AWB (and if you're going to go there, might as well include semi auto handguns which actually are military-style) which will likely be upheld by at least some courts (9th and 2nd, for example) and take years to make it to SCOTUS. Who knows what its fate would be there. :thumbsdown:

Democrats are defiantly looking to take your guns and make sure your children won't have "assault weapons." Win by attrition.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#127 Post by highdesert » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:31 pm

The former Texas congressman defended that stance in an interview on CNN's "New Day" Friday, insisting the issue would not hurt his party. "It's not a concern of mine and that's in part informed by listening to people in conservative parts of America," he said. "And folks are saying, 'Look, I would give up that AR-15 or that AK-47. I don't need it to hunt, don't need it to defend myself in my home.' They recognize this is a weapon designed for war, to kill people as effectively, as efficiently, and in a great a number as possible."

Which, well, count me skeptical that O'Rourke's idea will gain widespread political support. Here's why.
For decades, the National Rifle Association -- and its Republican allies in Congress and now in the White House -- have used the idea of confiscation to win the gun debate. If Democrats were in control, they'd come to your house and take your guns!, the argument goes. It's why gun purchases soared in the immediate aftermath of Barack Obama's election in 2008, for example. "It depends on if Democrats want to take your guns away," President Donald Trump said in response to questions Thursday about whether some sort of gun control measure might be passed by Congress this fall. "If this is a movement by the Democrats to take your guns away, it's never going to happen."

Up until very recently, the Democrats-want-to-get-rid-of-the-Second-Amendment talk was, like so much of Trump's rhetoric, outlandish and without any basis in facts. Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 expressly made clear they had no interest in any sort of mandatory collection or buyback program.
While a mandatory buyback campaign of weapons like the AR-15 and AK-47 doesn't amount to a wholesale gun confiscation, it walks much closer to that doomsday scenario the NRA has spent years painting as just over the horizon if Democrats get into power. Even if O'Rourke never even sniffs the Democratic presidential nomination, the eventual nominee will have to answer for his support of a mandatory buyback program.

And whether or not O'Rourke is the nominee, Republicans will use his comments to stoke fear and anger in their base -- see, we told you Democrats really want to take all your guns ... just look at this quote from Beto O'Rourke!!! Is it possible that the debate on guns and gun control has been changed in a fundamental way by the recent spate of mass shootings? O'Rourke seems to believe it has. And maybe it has! But if it hasn't, then O'Rourke just handed Republicans a massive political gift: A club to bash the eventual Democratic nominee with on confiscating peoples' guns.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/13/politics ... index.html

A gift to the eventual Dem nominee to help them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Beto got his 15 minutes of fame, his short term thinking is the way to help his party get to the White House.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#128 Post by DMac » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:04 pm

To think I liked Beto at one point. Turns out he's a pandering bottom feeder who's throwing a tantrum because his ratings suck.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#129 Post by featureless » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:09 pm

DMac wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:04 pm
To think I liked Beto at one point. Turns out he's a pandering bottom feeder who's throwing a tantrum because his ratings suck.
Yup.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#130 Post by DispositionMatrix » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:20 pm

Seems next to useless to emphasize a distinction between door-to-door confiscation and the compulsory surrender of firearms. The issue will be people's property being declared illegal to possess.

Warren's plan is registration or compulsory surrender, which is not much better.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#131 Post by senorgrand » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:38 pm

I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#132 Post by DMac » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:55 pm

senorgrand wrote:I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
I'm getting the same feeling. It's almost like that's what the democrats want

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#133 Post by Eris » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:42 pm

Beto and others like him don't get that many gun owners see his comments as an attack on their rights. He doesn't think gun ownership is a right, so of course he thinks it's OK to ban and confiscate guns. But people who see gun ownership as a right will naturally want to defend their rights, and since the people coming to take away guns are going to be heavily armed police, the only reasonable defense, if you cannot hide, is the use of force.

Gun haters need to wake up to that fact and realize that they are implicitly advocating for civil violence.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#134 Post by featureless » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:57 pm

Eris wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:42 pm
Beto and others like him don't get that many gun owners see his comments as an attack on their rights. He doesn't think gun ownership is a right, so of course he thinks it's OK to ban and confiscate guns. But people who see gun ownership as a right will naturally want to defend their rights, and since the people coming to take away guns are going to be heavily armed police, the only reasonable defense, if you cannot hide, is the use of force.

Gun haters need to wake up to that fact and realize that they are implicitly advocating for civil violence.
I wonder if people would get it if the proposal was to ban smart phones and computers to stop hate speech. Maybe if LEO started door to door on those items, the anti gun folk would get a clue. And a gun.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#135 Post by DispositionMatrix » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:02 pm

Eris wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:42 pm
Beto and others like him don't get that many gun owners see his comments as an attack on their rights.
Disagree. There is a difference between not getting it and not caring. Attacks on firearm ownership are red meat for his base.
Eris wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:42 pm
He doesn't think gun ownership is a right, so of course he thinks it's OK to ban and confiscate guns.
The takeaway for me with regard to those committed to opposing the RKBA always has been since they have demonstrated willingness to restrict a constitutionally protected right, other rights will end up on their target lists, provided they are not there already.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#136 Post by DispositionMatrix » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:04 pm

featureless wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:57 pm
Eris wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:42 pm
Beto and others like him don't get that many gun owners see his comments as an attack on their rights. He doesn't think gun ownership is a right, so of course he thinks it's OK to ban and confiscate guns. But people who see gun ownership as a right will naturally want to defend their rights, and since the people coming to take away guns are going to be heavily armed police, the only reasonable defense, if you cannot hide, is the use of force.

Gun haters need to wake up to that fact and realize that they are implicitly advocating for civil violence.
I wonder if people would get it if the proposal was to ban smart phones and computers to stop hate speech. Maybe if LEO started door to door on those items, the anti gun folk would get a clue. And a gun.
They would just call the police.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#137 Post by max129 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:06 pm

DMac said:
senorgrand wrote:

I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
I'm getting the same feeling. It's almost like that's what the democrats want

I am not ready to give up hope.

I do agree that the risk of Trump Term #2 is higher than anyone wants it to be.

I am not saying I have any great insight into all this, but I kept telling my wife in 2016 that Trump might win. She is much more of a follower of politics than I am, and she is more left of center than I am (she is basically a full-bore socialist - which she wears very well). To her, it looked like all the statistics were indicating Trump would lose by a Landslide. I saw the debates, saw the Trump rallies and had a really bad feeling he could get it over the line. It was not joy to me that I was "right" on this topic.

There is a funny thing about populists. If they are polling less than 10% (Pat Buchanan in 2000) then the threat will disappear. Beware the populists who poll at 10% or more. History indicates they are under counted.

In 1992, Ross Perot was forecast to get 11% of the Presidential popular vote. He got 19%. George HW Bush and Ross Perot together got 56.3% of the vote. Clinton won with 43% of the Popular vote.

Voting for populists is a bit like watching porn. The number who will admit to it is much smaller than the number that do.

I see all the metrics that say suburban women departed Trump in 2018 and now working class women are departing. And that all that is left is the ragtag army of angry, white middle aged men and older who love Trump no matter what.

gallup-poll.png

Bullshit!

The latest Gallup poll puts Trump at a 39% Approval Rating.

61% of the US population is "white" (I personally am more of a blotchy peachy color, but "white" will do for now)

65% of males do not have a college degree.

61% times 65% is 39.6% - so EVERY white male who is not a college educated is pro-Trump?

I believe that the disapproval rating for the winning Democratic candidate will be very high and that Trump can/and will exploit that disapproval (it is what he does best).

40% of US voters currently register as Independent. Yes, only 40% of Independents "lean" Republican. But this is where under counting populists comes into play.
mix-parties.png

IMO, the risk of Trump Term #2 is much higher than I am comfortable with, and as others have said, thus far the Democrats are MISSING the big stories of BETTER JOBS, BETTER ECONOMY, BETTER EDUCATION, STRONG DEFENSE and so on.

Sorry for the shouting ...
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#138 Post by K9s » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:28 pm

The GOP calls all non-GOP candidates socialist and racist and gun grabbers. They always have. Beto is surfing some raging waves and the GOP doesn't even see it. The anti-gun feelings are very strong right now. I assume that either new gun laws will be passed in the next year or the new POTUS/Congress will pass an old-style AWB on importation and new sales with universal background checks to satiate their voters.

I agree that ammo taxes (like cigarette and liquor taxes) will eventually be used, but those will be (hopefully) state-level. I expect feature bans and mag cap bans, too. No federal confiscation or sweeping bans will survive court challenges from red states and the McConnell judges. Even if they survive, the GOP will take back control and get rid of the bans.

The alternate view is that some states will see this as an opportunity to selectively enforce those laws. They cannot sweep every house and neighborhood at once. They always seem to start in the minority neighborhoods... By the time the law is sunset or overturned or stayed, they won't have made it to the white neighborhoods, I bet.

I'll give Beto the benefit of the doubt. He went through some terrible stuff in El Paso and he probably lives in an anti-gun bubble. I know many people who live in such a bubble. He doesn't realize how unpopular this idea outside the bubble.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#139 Post by shinzen » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:54 pm

Things that do well in the polls do not necessarily correlate to things that get voters to show up for you. But the people who feel extremely strongly about something will absolutely show up, and if the conversation continues to be about gun control, then the single issue folks on that issue and on the abortion issue will turn out in droves. It's plenty enough to cost the dems the election.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#140 Post by K9s » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:32 pm

shinzen wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:54 pm
Things that do well in the polls do not necessarily correlate to things that get voters to show up for you. But the people who feel extremely strongly about something will absolutely show up, and if the conversation continues to be about gun control, then the single issue folks on that issue and on the abortion issue will turn out in droves. It's plenty enough to cost the dems the election.
I hear you, but the anti-abortion and pro-gun single issue voters are going to turn out no matter what. If you don't keep up on the right-wing echo chamber, they believe that RBG won't last much longer and a second Trump term will get them another far-right SCOTUS judge (most believe it will be Federalist Society darling Amy Coney Barrett).

You saw the voter turnout in 2018? Historic! The Trump voters and the far-right are going to show up and vote. The non-GOP has to turn out as many non-GOP voters as they can in every district everywhere.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#141 Post by shinzen » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:01 am

Oh, I agree. I just believe that it's going to get the folks who may not have before as well.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#142 Post by featureless » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:21 am

Well, the Dems are at risk of losing a lot of moderates who don't always show up but will show up to keep a weapon ban at bay.

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#143 Post by K9s » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:38 am

I guess we will see what happens. I remember when I was certain that Trump would destroy the GOP turnout, enrage voters, and lose in a landslide in 2016.

The anti-gun fever is stronger than you might think. Red districts are not 100% GOP. The backlash against "guns everywhere" in "gun states" is a pretty powerful message. It might just take back some red state statehouses and get younger voters to vote.

We'll see what happens.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#144 Post by 7N6Wolf » Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:40 am

senorgrand wrote:I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
I think it will largely depend on when the next recession happens. Trump could very well get a second term if no recession happens before 2020. On the other hand, if a recession occurs before next November, the Democrats could very well win by a landslide.


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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#145 Post by senorgrand » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:24 am

7N6Wolf wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:40 am
senorgrand wrote:I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
I think it will largely depend on when the next recession happens. Trump could very well get a second term if no recession happens before 2020. On the other hand, if a recession occurs before next November, the Democrats could very well win by a landslide.


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Your scenario could very well be true, but only if the dems are smart enough to run on the economy, which is a big if.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#146 Post by VodoundaVinci » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:34 pm

So, here's a serious question....O'Rourke basically says he's gonna take our AR-15's and AK's. Which is at least anti 2A and actually he's saying the Constitution and the Rights outlined therein are not as important to him as grabbing guns. So, if he did win and become POTUS, has he already perjured himself if he takes the oath of office?

Trump did the same thing back in 2015 during the run up to thew Primaries - he said he'd do stuff no matter what the Constitution said thus making his oath of office basically perjury.

So how does O'Rourke feel that he's any better than the current liar/bully in chief?

VooDoo

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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#147 Post by K9s » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:15 pm

VodoundaVinci wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:34 pm
So, here's a serious question....O'Rourke basically says he's gonna take our AR-15's and AK's. Which is at least anti 2A and actually he's saying the Constitution and the Rights outlined therein are not as important to him as grabbing guns. So, if he did win and become POTUS, has he already perjured himself if he takes the oath of office?

Trump did the same thing back in 2015 during the run up to thew Primaries - he said he'd do stuff no matter what the Constitution said thus making his oath of office basically perjury.

So how does O'Rourke feel that he's any better than the current liar/bully in chief?

VooDoo
False premise. Remember the National Firearms Act? Confiscation of ARs and AKs is arguably constitutional (especially if NFA is used).

The 2A is what SCOTUS says it is.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#148 Post by Marlene » Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:35 pm

I really can’t stand the smell of burning hair.
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Re: Beto O'Rourke 2020

#149 Post by Brownrasta » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:54 pm

featureless wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:51 am
He's officially in the race. Now we need to convince him to drop the gun control and focus on the rest of his message. LGC actionable?

If he holds true to the following, he's got my vote.
He said that "the most pressing, the most urgent, the most existential challenge of them all is climate. And the scientists, beyond a shadow of a doubt, know that we have at a maximum 12 years in order to enact significant change to meet that threat and reduce the consequences of the decisions that we made in the past -- the consequences that our kids and the generations that follow will bear."
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics ... index.html
Hmmm I will vote Beto. Just lost all my guns in a boating accident.
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