I'm feeling like Trump gets a second term...I don't see anyone beating him right now.
I'm getting the same feeling. It's almost like that's what the democrats want
I am not ready to give up hope.
I do agree that the risk of Trump Term #2 is higher than anyone wants it to be.
I am not saying I have any great insight into all this, but I kept telling my wife in 2016 that Trump might win. She is much more of a follower of politics than I am, and she is more left of center than I am (she is basically a full-bore socialist - which she wears very well). To her, it looked like all the statistics were indicating Trump would lose by a Landslide. I saw the debates, saw the Trump rallies and had a really bad feeling he could get it over the line. It was not joy to me that I was "right" on this topic.
There is a funny thing about populists. If they are polling less than 10% (Pat Buchanan in 2000) then the threat will disappear. Beware the populists who poll at 10% or more. History indicates they are under counted.
In 1992, Ross Perot was forecast to get 11% of the Presidential popular vote. He got 19%. George HW Bush and Ross Perot together got 56.3% of the vote. Clinton won with 43% of the Popular vote.
Voting for populists is a bit like watching porn. The number who will admit to it is much smaller than the number that do.
I see all the metrics that say suburban women departed Trump in 2018 and now working class women are departing. And that all that is left is the ragtag army of angry, white middle aged men and older who love Trump no matter what.
The latest Gallup poll puts Trump at a 39% Approval Rating.
61% of the US population is "white" (I personally am more of a blotchy peachy color, but "white" will do for now)
65% of males do not have a college degree.
61% times 65% is 39.6% - so EVERY white male who is not a college educated is pro-Trump?
I believe that the disapproval rating for the winning Democratic candidate will be very high and that Trump can/and will exploit that disapproval (it is what he does best).
40% of US voters currently register as Independent. Yes, only 40% of Independents "lean" Republican. But this is where under counting populists comes into play.
IMO, the risk of Trump Term #2 is much higher than I am comfortable with, and as others have said, thus far the Democrats are MISSING the big stories of BETTER JOBS, BETTER ECONOMY, BETTER EDUCATION, STRONG DEFENSE and so on.
Sorry for the shouting ...