Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Video has emerged of clashes between police and people being forced out of their homes in Shanghai, as the city enters a third week of Covid lockdown.

Some residential compounds are being turned into quarantine centres.

Millions are confined to their homes as Shanghai battles a fresh outbreak of the virus. Anyone who tests positive is placed in quarantine.

But with more than 20,000 new cases a day, authorities are struggling to find enough space.

The city in recent weeks has converted exhibition halls and schools into quarantine centres, and set up makeshift hospitals.

The low numbers of serious cases in Shanghai have led some to ask whether a lockdown is necessary, correspondents say.

In recent weeks many residents have taken to social media to complain about the restrictions and the lack of food supplies.

People have to order in food and water and wait for government drop-offs of vegetables, meat and eggs, and analysts say many are running low on supplies.

The lockdown extension has overwhelmed delivery services, grocery shop websites and even the distribution of government supplies.
Three weeks into lockdown, some here in Shanghai are angry.

Head to toe in protective suits in an eastern district of the city, officers were forcing people out of their rented apartments so they could turn them into temporary quarantine facilities, all in the name of a war against a resurgent Covid.

But for some it was just too much, their homes sequestered, their desperation easy for all to hear.

A few miles away, there was an organised protest, a bold stand as the lockdown takes hold in a country where you can be arrested for picking quarrels.

They're angry about a local school being turned into another quarantine facility. Police with riot shields forced them off the streets in the end.

This was on a small scale but it's a sign of anger and frustration as this lockdown goes on.

line
Meanwhile the Chinese government has sent teams to the city to help more than 660 companies in key sectors of the economy such as semiconductor and car manufacturing to resume production, reports state media.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Friday they would ensure the supply of medical goods and the smooth flow of supply chains.

The move follows reports that parts of China's manufacturing sector might soon have to close, at least temporarily, because companies cannot get essential components from Shanghai.

He Xiaopeng, president of electrical vehicle manufacturer XPeng, said that if work did not start again in Shanghai during May, potentially all car factories across the country might have to stop operating.

China is one of the last remaining nations still committed to eradicating Covid, in contrast to most of the world which is trying to live with the virus.

But this zero-Covid policy has come under strain in recent weeks with the spread of the Omicron variant.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61117528

Locking down a city of 25 million that is also the economic hub of China doesn't look too smart.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Florida Judge Voids U.S. Mask Mandate For Planes, Other Travel

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP) — A federal judge in Florida has voided the national mask mandate covering airplanes and other public transportation as exceeding the authority of U.S. health officials in the coronavirus pandemic.

The decision Monday by U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Tampa, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, also said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention improperly failed to justify its decision and did not follow proper rulemaking.

In her 59-page ruling, Mizelle said the only remedy was to vacate the rule entirely across the country because it would be impossible to end it for the limited group of people who objected in the lawsuit.

The judge said “a limited remedy would be no remedy at all” and that the courts have full authority to make a decision such as this — even if the goals of the CDC in fighting the virus are laudable.

“Because our system does not permit agencies to act unlawfully even in pursuit of desirable ends, the court declares unlawful and vacates the mask mandate,” she wrote.

The Justice Department declined to comment Monday when asked if the government planned to appeal the ruling.

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was not directly involved in the case but has battled against many government coronavirus requirements, praised the ruling in statement on Twitter.

“Great to see a federal judge in Florida follow the law and reject the Biden transportation mask mandate. Both airline employees and passengers deserve to have this misery end,” DeSantis tweeted.

The CDC recently extended the mask mandate, which was set to expire Monday, until May 3 to allow more time to study the BA.2 omicron subvariant of the coronavirus that is now responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S.

The mask requirement for travelers was the target of months of lobbying from the airlines, which sought to kill it. The carriers argued that effective air filters on modern planes make transmission of the virus during a flight highly unlikely. Republicans in Congress also fought to kill the mandate.

Critics have seized on the fact that states have rolled back rules requiring masks in restaurants, stores and other indoor settings, and yet COVID-19 cases have fallen sharply since the omicron variant peaked in mid-January.

There have been a series of violent incidents on aircraft that have mainly been attributed to disputes over the mask-wearing requirements.

The lawsuit was filed in July 2021 by two plaintiffs and the Health Freedom Defense Fund, described in the judge’s order as a nonprofit group that “opposes laws and regulations that force individuals to submit to the administration of medical products, procedures and devices against their will.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/judge-m ... 72bff8ef7a

Well lets watch the COVID rate start to climb again. Just think the person sitting next to you or just close by in the crowed cabin could be infected with COVID and spreading the virus. BTW the judge is a TOT appointment.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

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The Biden administration did not take any immediate steps to try to stay the ruling, with the White House saying it would wait for input from the Justice Department and CDC before deciding how to proceed. On Tuesday evening the administration said it will appeal the ruling if the CDC deems it necessary to protect public health.

A Health and Human Services Department official told POLITICO “no decision has been made” on whether to appeal.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/1 ... e-00026325
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, the judge who ruled on the mask mandate said (paraphrasing) " Masks do not sanitize, they capture droplets that have a virus in them."
I repeat, her reasoning is " Masks do not sanitize, they capture droplets that have a virus in them."

Can fix stupid. How on earth did she become a judge and pass law school?
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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tonguengroover wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:10 pm Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, the judge who ruled on the mask mandate said (paraphrasing) " Masks do not sanitize, they capture droplets that have a virus in them."
I repeat, her reasoning is " Masks do not sanitize, they capture droplets that have a virus in them."

Can fix stupid. How on earth did she become a judge and pass law school?
That is a good question.
Who is Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, the federal judge who blocked Biden's travel mask mandate?

(CNN) — A little-known federal judge appointed by former President Donald Trump found herself in the national spotlight on Monday after striking down the Biden administration's public transportation mask mandate.

US District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle has been serving as a federal judge in Florida for more than a year. Notably, the Senate vote confirming her to the lifetime appointment came in mid-November 2020, after the presidential election. She had been given a "not qualified" rating by the American Bar Association, based on her limited amount of experience post-law school.

Born in Lakeland, Florida, in 1987, Mizelle graduated in 2012 with a law degree from University of Florida Levin College of Law, after earning her undergraduate degree at Covenant College, a Christian liberal arts college in Georgia.

Before becoming a judge, she was an associate with the law firm Jones Day in Washington, DC, and an adjunct law professor at her alma mater. Mizelle held four federal clerkships throughout her career, including one with US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas from 2018 to 2019.

From 2017 to 2018, she was counsel to one of the third-ranking officials at the Justice Department, then-Associate Attorney General Rachel Brand, where she oversaw the Tax Division and led the administration's efforts to promote free speech on college campuses.

She spent about three years as a trial attorney for the Justice Department's Tax Division, where she prosecuted white-collar crimes, and before that was a special assistant US attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia for a year, she told the Senate Judiciary Committee.

According to the American Bar Association, the two cases she had tried to verdict were when she said she was a certified legal intern for Florida's state attorney's office and still in law school.

A member of the Federalist Society, Mizelle, then 33, was nominated by Trump in early September 2020, in a confirmation without any support by Senate Democrats, who were in the minority at the time.

During her Senate hearing that month, Mizelle was pressed by Democrats about her lack of experience and other issues such as an amicus brief she had filed while in private practice, on the behalf of clients in supporting the Department of Labor's decision not to issue mandatory safety rules to protect workers from contracting Covid-19.

Mizelle was also asked about John Eastman -- who later pressed for ways to overturn the presidential election -- who at the time was pushing a racist conspiracy theory that Vice President Kamala Harris might not be eligible for the role because her parents were immigrants. Mizelle said she did not endorse the views expressed by Eastman, who worked for the Claremont Institute, where Mizelle participated in a weeklong fellowship.

Mizelle was given the "not qualified" rating by the American Bar Association when she was nominated, based on her lack of experience -- which is a primary focus of the ABA's ranking system.

"(A) nominee to the federal bench ordinarily should have at least 12 years' experience in the practice of law," the ABA said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2020. The ABA's "Backgrounder" adds that "in evaluating the professional qualifications of a nominee, the Standing Committee recognizes that substantial courtroom and trial experience as a lawyer or trial judge is important."

While Mizelle was admitted to practice law in September 2012, the ABA notes that "a nominee's limited experience may be offset by the breadth and depth of the nominee's experience over the course of her or his career." In this case, the ABA wrote, Mizelle had not tried a civil or criminal case as a lead or co-counsel.

In its letter, the ABA said it was not questioning Mizelle's character or future ability. "Ms. Mizelle has a very keen intellect, a strong work ethic and an impressive resume," the letter states. "She presents as a delightful person and she has many friends who support her nomination. Her integrity and demeanor are not in question. These attributes however simply do not compensate for the short time she has actually practiced law and her lack of meaningful trial experience."

Asked about the ABA's letter in her Senate Judiciary written questionnaire, Mizelle wrote, "I do not fully understand its methodology or why they omitted discussion of my litigation as a federal prosecutor where I appeared and argued in federal district court."

During her confirmation hearing, Mizelle was asked by Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas what she'd tell litigants worried about her lack of experience.

"I would work myself to figure it out, to learn it quickly. I would bring all of my energy and intensity to mastering the task at hand," she said.

Mizelle was confirmed by the Senate in a 49-41 party-line vote in November 2020. She was later sworn in by Thomas.
She is married to former Trump administration official Chad Mizelle, who was the acting top attorney for the Department of Homeland Security.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics ... index.html

I guess she is no worse than the incompetent ass that appointed her. TOT never held any political or government office before weaseling his way into the Presidency. Unfortunately we will be stuck with her on the federal Bench a lot longer than we had TOT.

But the Repugs didn't follow their own rules when appointing her and others.
Part of what makes the developments so striking is the judicial context: The ruling is having a dramatic effect on travelers in the United States, but just as notable is the judge who issued the order.

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane. Donald Trump lost his re-election bid in early November 2020, but the Republicans continued to enjoy a majority in the Senate for another two months after the GOP president’s defeat. The party’s senators spent that time doing the one thing they knew exactly how to do: Republicans confirmed a bunch of conservative judicial nominees.

One of them was Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, a 33-year-old conservative at the time who’d never tried a case as an attorney. She had, however, clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and was a member of the Federalist Society. The American Bar Association deemed her “not qualified” for a lifetime position on the federal bench.

The outgoing GOP majority in the Senate didn’t care. Mizelle was confirmed with unanimous support from Senate Republicans. The nominee received zero Democratic votes.

Eighteen months later, Mizelle, without even hearing oral arguments, decided to derail a national policy about Covid-19 protections, indifferent to the judgments of public-health professionals.
https://www.nbcnews.com/rachel-maddow-s ... -rcna24955

Seems the old saying, "What's good for the goose is also good for the gander." doesn't apply to the GOPathetic Party in the Congress. They refused to appoint judges or even hold hearings for them during Obama's last year in office, because it was an election year. This election even though their puppet was defeated they still appointed many judges to the bench. I guess the GOPathetic Party see themselves as being special.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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About 14.9 million people around the world died as a direct or indirect result of Covid-19 in the period between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, according to new estimates from the World Health Organization -- nearly three times more deaths than were officially reported.

There were 5.4 million Covid-19 deaths reported to WHO during that timeframe, resulting in an excess mortality estimate of 9.5 million more deaths than what was reported.

"Excess mortality is the difference between the number of deaths that have been recorded and those that would be expected in the absence of the pandemic," said Samira Asma, assistant director-general for the Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact Division of WHO.

The 14.9 million deaths include "deaths directly attributed to Covid-19 that were reported to WHO, deaths directly attributed to Covid-19 that were not counted or reported ... deaths indirectly associated with the pandemic due to the wider impact on health systems and society," Asma explained. The figure also subtracts any deaths that were avoided due to changes in social behaviors, such as fewer fatalities from car wrecks because of lockdowns or travel restrictions.

The estimated range of excess deaths was 13.3 million to 16.6 million over the 24-month period, according to the methodology used in the WHO report.

In the United States, the number of excess deaths was 932,458 by December 31, 2021, according to WHO. The estimated number of deaths ranges from 886,917 to 978,225. That's about 100,000 more people than the 824,338 deaths the United States reported on December 31, 2021, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

"Knowing how many people died due to the pandemic will help us to be better prepared for the next," Asma said at a news conference Thursday, adding, "We need to honor the lives tragically cut short, lives we lost, and we must hold ourselves and our policymakers accountable." The metrics paint a fuller picture of the extent of the pandemic and can be used to guide and implement public health policies, according to Asma. "When we underestimate, we may underinvest. And when we undercount, we may miss targeting the interventions where they are needed most, and this also deepens inequalities," she said.

William Msemburi, technical officer with WHO's Department of Data and Analytics, said that about 57% of the excess deaths were in men, and 82% were in people above the age of 60. Nearly 70% of the excess deaths were concentrated in 10 countries, Msemburi said, listing them alphabetically: Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and the United States.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/05/health/c ... index.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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There's no denying the numbers: Even with spotty reporting, Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are rising again in the United States.

Cases are trending up in most states and have increased by more than 50% compared with the previous week in Washington, Mississippi, Georgia, Maine, Hawaii, South Dakota, Nevada and Montana. In New York, more than a quarter of the state's population is in a county with a "high" Covid-19 community level, where the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends indoor masking.

Average daily hospitalizations are up about 10% since last week, according to data collected by the US Department of Health and Human Services.

The culprit this time appears to be a spinoff of Omicron's BA.2 subvariant called BA.2.12.1, which was first flagged by New York state health officials in April. BA.2.12.1, which is growing about 25% faster than its parent virus, BA.2, accounts for nearly 37% all Covid-19 cases across the US, according to new estimates from the CDC. BA.2 caused an estimated 62% of all Covid-19 cases last week, down from 70% the week before.

BA.2.12.1 isn't the only Omicron offshoot that scientists are watching.

After weeks of declines, South Africa saw its Covid-19 cases rise steeply in the past two weeks. Test positivity and hospitalizations have also popped up as scientists have watched two relatively new subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, dominate transmission in that country. Taken together, they accounted for almost 60% of all new Covid-19 cases by the end of April, according to South Africa's National Institute of Communicable Diseases.

These new Omicron subvariants are spreading around the globe. BA.4 sequences have been reported in 15 countries and 10 US states, while BA.5 has been picked up in 13 countries and five US states, according to the website Outbreak.info, which maintained by a coalition of academic research centers and is supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health. Like BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 have a growth advantage over BA.2.

A new preprint study, published ahead of peer review, is pointing to why BA.4 and BA.5 are gaining ground: They can escape antibodies generated by previous infections caused by the first Omicron virus, BA.1, the variant responsible for the huge wave of infections that hit many countries in December and January. They can also escape antibodies in people who've been vaccinated and had breakthrough BA.1 infections, though this happened to a lesser degree than seen in people who've only been infected.

Researchers in South Africa tested the ability of antibodies in blood to disable BA.4 and BA.5 viruses in a lab. In people who were unvaccinated but recently recovered from a BA.1 infection, they saw a more than seven-fold drop in the ability of their antibodies to neutralize BA.4 and BA.5 viruses. In people who'd been vaccinated but recently had a breakthrough infection caused by BA.1, the drops were smaller, about three-fold lower.

By way of comparison, the World Health Organization uses an eight-fold drop in neutralization as the threshold for the loss of protection that requires an update to seasonal influenza vaccines. The study results led the researchers to write that "BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave," making Covid-19 vaccinations and booster shots crucial to stopping the next wave.

"Our conclusions from this are, first, that Omicron by itself is not a great vaccine, right?" said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute who led the study. "Just because you were infected does not mean you have a lot of protection from what's coming next." Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist who is the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, praised the research, pointing out that this lab was also the first to characterize the first Omicron variant: "They've been first-rate all the way through the pandemic."

He said that overall, the finding was not good news. Even people who recovered from a Covid-19 infection as recently as December or January can be reinfected by these new subvariants. "That dropoff of immune escape or immune evasion was pronounced in people who were unvaccinated," Topol said, pointing out that only about 1 in 3 people in South Africa have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Only a few dozen sequences of these viruses have been reported in the US and Canada. Researchers say it's just too early to know whether BA.4 or BA.5 will take off in the United States.

It wouldn't be surprising if they do, said Andy Pekosz, a virologist and professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University. "We've seen this over and over again. As a variant becomes dominant in another country eventually ends up here in the US and spreading globally," Pekosz said.

In the meantime, Topol said, we have our own sublineage to deal with: BA.2.12.1. "It may simulate the problems of BA.4 and BA.5," Topol said. "We don't know yet because there's no study like this one from the Sigal lab."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/health/f ... index.html

Another reminder that the pandemic isn't over.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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It sure isn't. It's hit 3 coworkers in the last month and is in the household of a fourth (the most cases in our office to date). I continue to mask the two days a week I'm in the office. I'm a year short of qualifying for the latest booster. It's quite possible I've had it and didn't know. Or maybe I just haven't had it yet. At this point, who the fuck knows... Doing my individual best but have really stopped caring what anybody else does. No longer have the energy.

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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As Over a Million Have Died to COVID, US Billionaires Have Gained $1.7 Trillion

While the U.S. public has witnessed and experienced an unfathomable amount of death and tragedy over the course of the pandemic, U.S. billionaires have made out like kings and massively increased their wealth over the course of just over two years, new data shows.

According to an analysis by the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), American billionaires have added a colossal $1.71 trillion to their wealth since March of 2020. With an over 58 percent growth in their wealth, U.S. billionaires are now worth a collective $4.67 trillion. This is a towering figure — it amounts to nearly 25 percent of the U.S. GDP — $19.74 trillion — split between 727 people.

The $1.71 trillion that billionaires have accumulated over the pandemic could pay for the entirety of the Build Back Better Act, congressional Democrats’ reconciliation bill that was slated to implement President Joe Biden’s social safety net and climate program last year. Alternatively, their wealth gain alone could pay off nearly all student loans, which are burdening 45 million Americans.

IPS’s report comes as the U.S. has hit 1 million deaths due to COVID-19, according to an NBC analysis, though the real death toll is likely higher. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a large portion of COVID deaths were uncounted, meaning the total could be closer to 1.29 million deaths or more. When 100,000 people had died due to COVID in May 2020, The New York Times labeled the milestone as “incalculable” — 10 times that amount represents a loss beyond words.

But perhaps not for billionaires, especially those who have seen their wealth skyrocket over the past two years. Elon Musk’s wealth multiplied by over 10 times during the pandemic; in March 2020, he was worth $24.6 billion, an already huge amount for any individual. As of Wednesday, he is worth $255 billion, and is the richest person in the world among those whose net worth is publicly available.

“This jarring juxtaposition clearly illustrates that the work and strength of the working-class have made U.S. billionaires wealthier yet continue to bear the brunt of the pandemic,” Omar Ocampo, a co-author of the IPS report, told Truthout. “A strengthened labor movement and progressive taxation are both necessary to strengthen workers’ rights and make available to us the resources needed to increase investment in our healthcare system.”

Others who were already shockingly wealthy also accumulated even more money during the pandemic. Jeff Bezos’s wealth shot up by nearly a third, from $113 billion to $150 billion; Bill Gates also gained about a third of his previous net worth with his wealth growing from $98 billion to $130 billion.

Three members of the Walton family, who control more than 50 percent of Walmart, have seen their collective wealth grow by about 27 percent to $207.7 billion.

Some lawmakers have made attempts to reign in billionaires’ wealth, which they can accumulate largely tax-free. President Joe Biden included a minimum tax on the country’s wealthiest people in his budget request for the 2023 fiscal year, and people like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) have introduced taxes specifically targeted at the ultra-wealthy to hack away at the growing wealth gap in the country.
https://truthout.org/articles/as-over-a ... -trillion/

What will they do when there is nobody left to produce, sell or buy their goods?
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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We have really small numbers here in Butte County, CA. Even with the students back in the two colleges we haven't had a bump. They're a very subdued lot this semester with no loud parties or tons of drunks wandering the streets. Maybe they're studying? Stranger things have happened. About 1/3 of folks are still masked in the supermarket and so on, me included. I look a lot better that way, I must admit. I'm learning how to smile with my eyes while cursing them under my mask. Not something I'd try with my wife, eh.

CDFingers
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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The FDA has until the early summer to decide whether vaccine makers need to change existing Covid shots to target different virus variants to avoid another possible surge in cases this fall, according to a top official at the drug regulator.

Dr. Peter Marks, who leads the Food and Drug Administration office responsible for vaccine safety and efficacy, told the agency’s advisory committee Wednesday that a decision would need to be made by June in order to have shots available in the fall. Marks said the U.S. could face another wave of infection at that time because the virus will continue to evolve as immunity from the current vaccines wanes.

Robert Johnson, a senior official at the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, said at the meeting that the biggest challenge in updating the shots will be coordinating across the vaccine makers to make sure they are focusing on the correct Covid variants.

Pfizer, Moderna and other vaccine makers are conducting clinical trials on omicron-based shots. However, the companies aren’t currently coordinating on their new vaccine formulas, according to Jerry Weir, head of the FDA’s division of viral products. Several FDA advisory panel members said public health authorities need to develop a unified approach across vaccine makers, similar to their work updating the flu vaccine to target new strains every year.

Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA committee member, said the CDC needs to take the lead in deciding when the vaccines are no longer effective against severe illness, so the FDA and National Institutes of Health can then work with the companies to determine the best path forward on a new shot.

“At some level, the companies kind of dictate the conversation here,” Offit said. “You often hear that the company now has an omicron-specific vaccine, or vaccine they can now link with the influenza vaccine. It shouldn’t come from them, it really has to come from us.”

FDA officials proposed using the process for developing new flu vaccines as a guide for changing the Covid shots. Every year, the World Health Organization makes a recommendation about the composition of the flu vaccine. The FDA then makes its own determination, based on a recommendation from its committee, about which strain should go into shots for the U.S.

The uncertainty over the trajectory of Covid’s evolution, unlike the predictability of the flu, makes it difficult to determine how the vaccines should be updated — or if they even need a change at all.

Three doses of Pfizer’s or Moderna’s vaccines were more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalization among healthy adults during the omicron wave, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data presented at the meeting. But the companies’ vaccines are still based on the original version of the virus that emerged in Wuhan, China, and their effectiveness against infection has substantially dropped since the beginning of the pandemic.

Covid has mutated two to 10 times faster than the flu, depending on the strain of the latter virus, according to Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. Bedford said he expects that the spike protein, which the Covid virus uses to invade human cells, will keep evolving. The vaccines target the spike and as the protein mutates, the effectiveness of the shots can diminish.

Bedford said the most likely scenario over the next year is omicron and its subvariants will evolve to become more transmissible and further escape immunity from vaccination and infection. However, he said it’s difficult to predict whether another heavily mutated variant will come along that upends the pandemic response as omicron did over the winter.

“We really don’t know whether these wildly divergent viruses will be a common feature, or a rare feature of endemic SARS-CoV-2 evolution,” Bedford said, using the scientific name for the virus that causes Covid.

Johnson noted that in the case of the flu, the vaccine makers are able to develop production plans in advance based on a stable seasonal market. However, it’s not yet clear if Covid will follow a predictable seasonal pattern similar to the flu, according to Dr. Kanta Subbarao, a virologist who works on the flu for the WHO.

FDA committee members said the central question in updating a vaccine is determining what metric public health authorities should use to determine when the shots have lost their effectiveness. Scientists have not yet determined if a certain antibody level generated by a vaccine translates to clear protection against the virus, according to Dr. Cody Meissner, an infectious disease experts at Tufts University School of Medicine.

As a consequence, public health authorities will have to rely on hospitalization rates to determine if the vaccine is losing its effectiveness, Meissner said. However, it’s also not clear if national hospitalization data is primarily made up of patients admitted due to the virus, or people who tested positive after admission for other reasons. Meissner pointed to data from Massachusetts that showed 65% of the 219 people hospitalized with Covid as of April 5 were actually admitted for reasons other than the virus.

Dr. Amanda Cohn, a CDC official, told the committee that repeated boosting is not a sustainable public health strategy. Cohn said the vaccines effectiveness against hospitalization remains high, and society may have to accept a certain level of infection which it can then treat with antiviral pills that are now on the market.

The FDA authorized fourth shots for adults ages 50 and older last week without consulting the committee, a decision that has divided scientists and physicians, some of whom believe that there isn’t sufficient data to support additional shots. Marks said the FDA didn’t consult the committee because the drug regulator viewed the authorization as a way to give people more vulnerable to severe disease additional protection until a broader decision is made for the rest of the population.

“I think we’re very much on board and with the idea that we simply can’t be boosting people as frequently as we are,” Marks told the committee. “I’m the first to acknowledge that this additional fourth booster dose that was authorized was a stopgap measure until we got things in place for the potential next booster given the emerging data,” Marks said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/07/covid-h ... -says.html

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Wednesday that the company could possibly develop a new vaccine that protects against the Omicron variant as well as older forms of COVID-19 by autumn.

"It's easy to do something only against Omicron. What is scientifically and technically more challenging ... is to be effective against everything known so far, so you don't have two different vaccines for different variants," Bourla said, speaking at a press conference held by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 022-04-13/

The pharmaceutical company Moderna announced Tuesday that a new version of the company's COVID-19 vaccine appears to provide stronger, longer-lasting protection against variants of the virus than the original vaccine.

Preliminary results from a study testing a vaccine that targets both the original strain of the virus and the beta variant — a so-called "bivalent" vaccine — appears to produce high levels of antibodies for months that can neutralize the virus.

"We believe that these results validate our bivalent strategy," said Stéphane Bancel, Moderna's chief executive officer, in a news release.

Bancel added that another bivalent vaccine that combines the original strain with the omicron strain "remains our lead candidate" for a fall vaccination campaign aimed at protecting people against a winter surge. Results from the testing of that version are expect later this spring, according to Moderna.

"We believe that a bivalent booster vaccine, if authorized, would create a new tool as we continue to respond to emerging variants," Bancel said.

The study has not yet been reviewed by independent scientists and produced mixed reactions from outside experts.

"This paper is a 'proof of principle' that supports the concept of a bivalent mRNA vaccine," wrote Nathaniel Landau, a microbiologist at New York University, in an email to NPR. But Landau agreed a omicron-specific version would probably be the most useful.

Dr. Jesse Goodman, a former top Food and Drug Administration scientist now at Georgetown University, agreed the results are encouraging. But he also noted the approach needs to be confirmed by additional research.

"Other things could be at play in making the bivalent booster look better," Goodman wrote in an email to NPR.

John Moore, an immunologist at Weil Cornell Medicine, called the results "unimpressive" in an email to NPR. "What's here is unlikely to support the rollout of this type of bivalent vaccine — the benefits would not justify the expense and hassle."

Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease expert at Kaiser Health News, said the company's announcement "seems misleading" because it compared the antibodies from just two doses of the original vaccine with a third dose of the new vaccine.

Researchers are testing several new versions of Moderna's and Pfizer's vaccines to see if they provide broader protection again the omicron variant. Federal officials are hoping to see enough results by later this spring to give companies enough time to produce enough vaccines for another round of shots in the fall, when immunity from previous vaccination and infections may be waning and another surge could be looming.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... nt-vaccine
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Not gonna happen anytime soon.

Vaccines are like automobiles in this respect: manufacturers have to invest in R&D and retooling for each new model change. The Coronavirus is mutating so rapidly that it seems economically untenable to keep chasing new variants with new vaccines so long as the original still works “relatively OK”. This “good enough” ethos drives vaccine manufacturers who are chasing profits after all.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic
ABSTRACT
Official Covid-19 death tallies have underestimated the mortality impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Excess mortality, which compares observed deaths to deaths expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful measure for assessing the total effect of the pandemic on mortality levels. In the present study, we produce county-level estimates of excess mortality for 3,127 counties between March 2020 and December 2021. We fit two hierarchical linear models to county-level death rates from January 2015 to December 2019 and predict expected deaths for each month during the pandemic. We compare these estimates with the observed numbers of deaths to obtain excess deaths for each county-month. An estimated 936,911 excess deaths occurred during 2020 and 2021, of which 171,168 were not assigned to Covid-19 on death certificates. Urban counties in the Far West, Great Lakes, Mideast, and New England experienced a substantial urban mortality disadvantage in 2020, whereas rural counties in these regions had higher mortality in 2021. In the Southeast, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Plains regions, there was a rural mortality disadvantage in 2020, which was exacerbated in 2021. The proportion of excess deaths assigned to Covid-19 was lower in 2020 (76.3%) than in 2021 (87.0%), suggesting fewer Covid-19 deaths went unassigned later in the pandemic. However, in rural areas and in the Southeast and Southwest a large share of excess deaths were still not assigned to Covid-19 during 2021.

SIGNIFICANCE
Deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic have been primarily monitored through death certificates containing reference to Covid-19. This approach has missed more than 170,000 deaths related to the pandemic between 2020 and 2021. While the ascertainment of Covid-19 deaths improved during 2021, the full effects of the pandemic still remained obscured in some regions. County-level estimates of excess mortality are useful for studying geographic inequities in the mortality burden associated with the pandemic and identifying specific regions where the full mortality burden was significantly underreported (i.e. Southeast). They can also be used to inform resource allocation decisions at the federal and state levels and encourage uptake of preventive measures in communities with low vaccine uptake.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22274192v2

Further analysis here. Of note, the difference in county level death rate by partisan alignment. At the extreme deciles, red counties died 21x faster than blue ones.
https://acasignups.net/22/05/09/exclusi ... luest-2021

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Bisbee wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:49 pm Not gonna happen anytime soon.

Vaccines are like automobiles in this respect: manufacturers have to invest in R&D and retooling for each new model change. The Coronavirus is mutating so rapidly that it seems economically untenable to keep chasing new variants with new vaccines so long as the original still works “relatively OK”. This “good enough” ethos drives vaccine manufacturers who are chasing profits after all.
Exactly. For now the goal should remain protection from serious illness and hospitalization and of course death. COVID is mutating faster than influenza so it's hard to predict what the dominate strain will be in 6 months to a year like flu vaccines are developed. The feds threw a lot of money at COVID vaccine developers and manufacturers and now they have other more pressing federal issues that need funding. We'll have to see what develops. Read that China is developing their own mRNA vaccines, their own COVID vaccines didn't work well.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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highdesert wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 12:47 pm
featureless wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 12:35 pm Got at least 3 coworkers out with the vid and two others living with someone that has it. Worst numbers for our office this whole pandemic. Masked up here.
Stay safe, would your doctor authorize boosters for you and your wife?
My wife is 50. I could probably just walk in and get one. There isn't exactly a line out the door these days! At this point in the office, I'll either get it or I won't. Only there 2 days a week and wear my super comfy N95 all day.

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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featureless wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 1:56 pm
highdesert wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 12:47 pm
featureless wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 12:35 pm Got at least 3 coworkers out with the vid and two others living with someone that has it. Worst numbers for our office this whole pandemic. Masked up here.
Stay safe, would your doctor authorize boosters for you and your wife?
My wife is 50. I could probably just walk in and get one. There isn't exactly a line out the door these days! At this point in the office, I'll either get it or I won't. Only there 2 days a week and wear my super comfy N95 all day.

My county DPH locations require anyone not meeting age requirements to stipulate that that were immunosuppressed by signing a form. I have seen them accept physician letters.



A small study in the UK.
A fourth dose of a Covid vaccine can ramp up the body’s immune defences beyond the peak achieved after a third dose, research suggests.

A second booster – often a fourth dose of a Covid vaccine – is currently offered in the UK to those aged 75 or over, people living in care homes for older people, and those over the age of 12 who are immunosuppressed.

Now researchers say they have found a fourth dose can rescue immune responses that have waned since a third jab.

“We’ve demonstrated a fourth dose of Covid-19 vaccines can produce a substantial boost to both the antibody and cellular immunity when you give them more than six months after the third dose,” said Prof Saul Faust, who led the trial and is director of the NIHR Southampton clinical research facility.

Writing in the Lancet Infectious Diseases, researchers involved in the UK-based Cov-Boost trial report how they measured immune responses in 166 participants who received a fourth Covid jab on average seven months after having had a Pfizer/BioNTech jab as their third dose. All participants had initially had either two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech jab or two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.

Half were randomly allocated to receive a full dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid jab as their fourth vaccination, while the others were given half a dose of the Moderna jab. No serious adverse events were linked to the vaccines.

The team analysed data from 133 participants, finding that 14 days after receiving the fourth jab, there was a 1.6-fold increase in antibodies among those who received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and a more than twofold increase among those who received the half-dose Moderna jab, compared with 28 days after the third dose, when antibody levels were still at their peak.

Increases were seen for those over and below 70 years of age.

In addition, levels of antibodies and T-cells increased substantially between the day before the fourth vaccination and 14 days after for both types of fourth jab.

“Our results for immunogenicity are also consistent with the little observational evidence on vaccine effectiveness available from Israel, which indicates increased protection against symptomatic infection and severe illness from a fourth-dose booster,” the team write.

Faust added that those who had little waning of their immune responses before their fourth dose gained only a limited increase in their immune responses as a result of the booster – with similar findings for others who had a recent history of a Covid infection. “That indicates there may be a ceiling, a maximum antibody level with the T-cell response effects,” he said.

Faust said it was up to the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to decide whether a second booster should be offered more widely.

Some experts have suggested in the current circumstances those yet to reach middle age might never be offered another Covid jab.

But Prof Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, said Omicron still posed a serious threat, adding that the new study demonstrated the added value of a fourth dose.

“Just because our first-generation vaccines wane rapidly and offer rather permeable protection nowadays, does not suggest we should give up and have no further boosters,” he said.

“On the contrary, [given] many of us, even with high apparent antibody levels, actually show [very little] protective neutralisation of Omicron, there is all the more urgency to use [fourth] doses – in all age groups – to boost levels back up into the protective range.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... tudy-finds
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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The wifey just tested positive. She was congested and hacking yesterday right before THE GRANDKIDS LEFT to head back to Phoenix. Had to head home from work.
She thought it was some crud, but nope. Positive!
I just did a home test which came back negative! For now anyways. Forgot how long the incubation period is before you test positive.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: New SARS type virus spreading in China

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Don’t worry. Just keep an eye on cold symptoms and sore throat and such. We will all be exposed to this coronavirus eventually. The key is actually to keep the symptoms low and recover quickly. Then you develop natural immunity to Covid.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

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