Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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CDFingers wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:52 pm I'm going out on a limb to say the hearings will be a strong influence.

CDFingers
Perhaps, but whatever advantage biden and the dems should have will be eroded some by their stupidity.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 1c1375ffa6
There is "low enthusiasm" from Biden’s base and worry from party officials about the president’s "leadership, his age and his capability to take the fight to former President Donald J. Trump a second time," the Times wrote. It quoted Steve Simeonidis, a Democratic National Committee member from Florida, who said, "To say our country was on the right track would flagrantly depart from reality," and urged him to announce he wouldn't run again shortly after the midterms.

The piece also depicted the Jan. 6 Committee hearing as "perhaps the last, best chance before the midterms to break through with persuadable swing voters who have been more focused on inflation and gas prices."

Otherwise, all that Biden has – after "repeated failures of his administration to pass big-ticket legislation on signature Democratic issues" and "halting efforts to use the bully pulpit of the White House to move public opinion" – is "sagging approval ratings and a party that, as much as anything, seems to feel sorry for him."
This is an epitaph, not a path to a better future. Better find someone other than harris to step in.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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sikacz wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:48 am He's been ranting about guns the minute he stepped into the office. From my perspective he's steering the party in the wrong direction. As the opinion piece said both party and biden are out of touch.

Yup, it's like he's kissing Bloomberg's ass with all his anti-gun rhetoric. Show compassion for the victims but don't go all anti-gun, it alienates voters in red and purple states. He'll win Democratic voters in blue states without even mentioning guns, there are plenty of other issues. He's not showing smart leadership.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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'He still hopes to run for governor?' Experts say Ryan Kelley’s arrest is emblematic of growing far-right violence

After Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested Thursday by the FBI on charges related to his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, during which supporters of former President Donald Trump attempted to overthrow the United States government, his campaign posted two words on social media: “Political Prisoner.”

This sentiment — that Kelley’s arrest is rooted in Democratic politics and not the law — isone that far-right commentators like Fox News’ Tucker Carlson and a parade of GOP officials and organizations in Michigan, including the Michigan Republican Party, are pushing without evidence. (Michigan Republican Party Chairman Ron Weiser, for example, said Democrats are “weaponizing our justice system” and GOP gubernatorial candidate Garrett Soldano called the FBI an “arm of the Democrat Party.”)
More on his actions on Jan.6 at the US Capital and how the Repugs are weaponizing the election. https://www.rawstory.com/ryan-kelley/

The Repugs and the rest of the rightwing are acting more and more like the Fascist parties of the 1920s and 30s. they are eating themselves and the only hope and blaming the Dems for all the problems we have today, even while causing much of the unrest.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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sig230 wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:46 pm
sikacz wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:46 pm If that's his only qualification, it's pathetic. I'll pick someone else.
LoL

Just which alternate President will you pick?
Depends who’s running. Democracy is about voicing your opinion regardless of how small your voice is. I know two candidates that won’t get my vote.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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Is a vote for an un-electable candidate voicing an opinion?

Would it even be heard?

Would it do anything to prevent the worst of the two candidates from being elected?
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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sig230 wrote: Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:53 pm Is a vote for an un-electable candidate voicing an opinion?

Would it even be heard?

Would it do anything to prevent the worst of the two candidates from being elected?
Yes it is, especially if it keeps an asshole you don’t care for out of office. Take your pick. Look, it’s math. It’s not hard to know how many votes each candidate gets, you can then look at general party support across the board, and after that it’s not hard to figure out how another candidate received the votes your pet asshole might have. My advice get better candidates that are not assholes and stop asking others to support a lame candidate just because you like him or he’s not the candidate you despise. So if I despise both assholes running for the major parties it’s my privilege and right to cast a vote anyway I like. In short, both assholes are the same to me and both have negatives I cannot support. Support them all you like, I reserve the right to express my opinion even if my small opinion isn’t heard, it may just make your asshole lose. Think on that.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

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How do you know Biden is going to run?
I doubt he will run

That said the one time I didn't vote Democrat the demon trump got elected in 2016.
Would my single vote have mattered? No
But I believe many people felt and acted out as I did so all together voting for a third party knowing your throwing away a vote and in this current election a tyrant dictator might win, well I could never live with myself.
In 2016 all the numbers were for Hillary. I was confident my third party vote wouldn't matter. But it did. Just like all those other dems who didn't like Hillary and opted to not vote at all.
Not voting is bad.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

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sikacz wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:49 am If biden doesn’t run there will be another asshole like harris in the wings. Single votes add up when enough people get disillusioned.
But that is only significant at the Primary level. Unless a candidate can show enough success during the primaries to get on the ballot under one of the two current major parties voting for someone who cannot win simply is supporting the worst candidate.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

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"The vast majority of American voters are trapped in one-party districts – of course they feel like their votes don’t make a difference,” said David Daley, redistricting journalist and Senior Fellow at FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections.
80% of Seats All-But-Decided Months Before Election Day. Based on current congressional maps, FairVote makes “high-confidence projections” for 80% of the House (348 seats). In other words, the partisanship of these districts is so locked in that the winner won’t change, regardless of national party preference. In a “Default,” 50-50 year, these seats would favor either a Democrat or Republican by 10+ points. FairVote’s high-confidence projections have been over 97% accurate for each of the last six election cycles, and over 99% accurate for five of the last six. Another 11% (47 seats) “lean” towards one party, meaning they favor either Democrats or Republicans by 5-10 points in a Default year. Only 8% (40 seats) are true “tossups.”
https://www.fairvote.org/2022_monopoly_politics_release

And when people feel trapped, many don't vote. CA is still counting ballots from last Tuesday's primary but currently the turn out is 21.4%. A ballot was mailed to every CA voter and there are drop off boxes all over CA or mail it back the postage is free.

40 seats can make the difference between majority or minority and Democrats alienate a lot of voters by constantly pushing gun control.

Biden’s old boss, Barack Obama, put together a winning coalition during his presidency, combining college-educated whites with young, Black and Latino voters. The danger for Democrats is that Biden appears to be unraveling that coalition. About the only groups still solidly in his camp are dedicated members of the Democratic base, such as Black voters and college-educated women.

Biden carried close to two-thirds of Hispanic voters in 2020, but their shift toward Trump, compared to 2016, was notable, especially in states such as Florida and Texas. In the Texas primaries in March this year, participation in GOP primaries was up dramatically in heavily Hispanic portions of South Texas that traditionally have been overwhelmingly Democratic. An NPR/Marist poll released last month found that 52 percent of Latinos say they’re more likely to support Republican candidates for Congress; just 39 percent favor Democrats.

Young voters have been a particular problem for Biden. Voters under 30 favored Biden over Trump, 60 percent to 39 percent, in 2020, but they’ve soured on him since. Biden’s approval rating among young voters has dropped by 18 points over the past year, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics poll – which is in line with what other pollsters are finding.

Even as Democrats shed support among Latinos, young voters and parents, the party’s longstanding problem with working-class white voters continues to worsen. The April NPR/Marist poll found Democrats are only favored by a third of white voters without college degrees, compared to 55 percent who say they are likely to support Republicans. “The people who are left backing Biden are the people who would back any Democrat under anything except extreme circumstances,” Olsen says. “That’s a terrible place to be in for an election. You’ve lost America’s middle.”
https://www.governing.com/now/you-dont- ... -this-year
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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highdesert wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:08 am
"The vast majority of American voters are trapped in one-party districts – of course they feel like their votes don’t make a difference,” said David Daley, redistricting journalist and Senior Fellow at FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections.
80% of Seats All-But-Decided Months Before Election Day. Based on current congressional maps, FairVote makes “high-confidence projections” for 80% of the House (348 seats). In other words, the partisanship of these districts is so locked in that the winner won’t change, regardless of national party preference. In a “Default,” 50-50 year, these seats would favor either a Democrat or Republican by 10+ points. FairVote’s high-confidence projections have been over 97% accurate for each of the last six election cycles, and over 99% accurate for five of the last six. Another 11% (47 seats) “lean” towards one party, meaning they favor either Democrats or Republicans by 5-10 points in a Default year. Only 8% (40 seats) are true “tossups.”
https://www.fairvote.org/2022_monopoly_politics_release

And when people feel trapped, many don't vote. CA is still counting ballots from last Tuesday's primary but currently the turn out is 21.4%. A ballot was mailed to every CA voter and there are drop off boxes all over CA or mail it back the postage is free.

40 seats can make the difference between majority or minority and Democrats alienate a lot of voters by constantly pushing gun control.

Biden’s old boss, Barack Obama, put together a winning coalition during his presidency, combining college-educated whites with young, Black and Latino voters. The danger for Democrats is that Biden appears to be unraveling that coalition. About the only groups still solidly in his camp are dedicated members of the Democratic base, such as Black voters and college-educated women.

Biden carried close to two-thirds of Hispanic voters in 2020, but their shift toward Trump, compared to 2016, was notable, especially in states such as Florida and Texas. In the Texas primaries in March this year, participation in GOP primaries was up dramatically in heavily Hispanic portions of South Texas that traditionally have been overwhelmingly Democratic. An NPR/Marist poll released last month found that 52 percent of Latinos say they’re more likely to support Republican candidates for Congress; just 39 percent favor Democrats.

Young voters have been a particular problem for Biden. Voters under 30 favored Biden over Trump, 60 percent to 39 percent, in 2020, but they’ve soured on him since. Biden’s approval rating among young voters has dropped by 18 points over the past year, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics poll – which is in line with what other pollsters are finding.

Even as Democrats shed support among Latinos, young voters and parents, the party’s longstanding problem with working-class white voters continues to worsen. The April NPR/Marist poll found Democrats are only favored by a third of white voters without college degrees, compared to 55 percent who say they are likely to support Republicans. “The people who are left backing Biden are the people who would back any Democrat under anything except extreme circumstances,” Olsen says. “That’s a terrible place to be in for an election. You’ve lost America’s middle.”
https://www.governing.com/now/you-dont- ... -this-year
With this kind of math how smart is it to push a issue like gun control and AWB type legislation. An increasing number of women and women of color are buying guns. Just how enthusiast do the dems and biden think they will be if they are no longer able to buy a gun to defend themselves. It may not be huge numbers, but as I've tried to point out, small numbers add up. I voted for Obama twice. I've never voted for biden for president. For me he was acceptable as a VP and a placeholder if something had happened, not acceptable as president. Obama's coalition started falling apart during the last election and biden has kept the downward trajectory. When the dems lose and another right wing idiot sits in the white house don't cry to me. The many small votes that the dems and biden ignored will be on them not me. As biden said during the last election, if you don't like me vote for the other guy. That is one arrogant asshole.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 738c048c6d
Three recent developments indicate that Democrats’ already shaky political prospects are deteriorating further, and suggest that the party could be on track to experience a historic rout — worse than 1994 or 2010 — in the midterm elections.
Smell the roses, another not so optimistic article.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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To make matters worse, it appears Alaska is as nuts as Texas re Palin. I keep having this nightmare of a winning Trump/Palin ticket in 2024 - two fucking imbeciles !!! JFC what is this nation becoming? Rhetorical.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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Good article on the generic congressional survey written late last year by 538.
In years when the president’s party leads the generic-ballot polling average the September before the midterms, the party underperforms those polls by an average of 9.3 points. And that, in a nutshell, is why Democrats should be concerned about the 2022 elections despite their current lead on the generic ballot. This cycle so far looks a lot like former President Barack Obama’s two midterms (2010 and 2014) did for Democrats in that they lead generic-ballot polls by a few points in the September of the year before the election. But in both those years, Republicans eventually moved ahead in our generic-ballot polling average and won the election handily.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ou ... gops-side/

Republicans lead in the generic ballot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... ic-ballot/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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Democrats will face the largest wipeout in modern history. Food prices ,inflation, and gas prices are decimating everyone but the very wealthy. Whether you blame Biden or not, the reality is still clear : THIS IS BIDEN'S AMERICA. Democrats will lose the House and the Senate. Republicans will end the Filibuster as soon as they are in office.
EAT,SLEEP,RANGE,REPEAT

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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Yup, inflation along with consumer prices will be the major issue in the midterm election. It's very likely that Republicans will win both the House and the Senate, but I doubt they'll abolish the filibuster, they won't hold both chambers forever. Without the Senate filibuster the minority is as meaningless as the minority is in the House, the filibuster gives the minority power in the Senate. Just look at the gun control bill that Democrats and Republicans just worked out, without the filibuster Democrats would have included an assault weapons ban, banned high capacity (standard) magazines and required background checks for all purchases.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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highdesert wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:53 pm Yup, inflation along with consumer prices will be the major issue in the midterm election. It's very likely that Republicans will win both the House and the Senate, but I doubt they'll abolish the filibuster, they won't hold both chambers forever. Without the Senate filibuster the minority is as meaningless as the minority is in the House, the filibuster gives the minority power in the Senate. Just look at the gun control bill that Democrats and Republicans just worked out, without the filibuster Democrats would have included an assault weapons ban, banned high capacity (standard) magazines and required background checks for all purchases.
You seem to think the Republicans are smart enough to even think about what might happen in the future.

It's far more likely that they abolish a two party system.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2022 Midterm Elections

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Big Media continues with the "Dems gonna get slaughtered in the fall." Not so sure. I think these hearings will change the outcome IF Big Media covers the story. There may be advantages to be had, however, in terms of deregulation of media if the R's take both Houses. Joe would likely veto, but you never know. Big Media would likely try for an R Congress for dereg jollies.

CDFingers
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