"The vast majority of American voters are trapped in one-party districts – of course they feel like their votes don’t make a difference,” said David Daley, redistricting journalist and Senior Fellow at FairVote, a nonpartisan organization seeking better elections.
80% of Seats All-But-Decided Months Before Election Day. Based on current congressional maps, FairVote makes “high-confidence projections” for 80% of the House (348 seats). In other words, the partisanship of these districts is so locked in that the winner won’t change, regardless of national party preference. In a “Default,” 50-50 year, these seats would favor either a Democrat or Republican by 10+ points. FairVote’s high-confidence projections have been over 97% accurate for each of the last six election cycles, and over 99% accurate for five of the last six. Another 11% (47 seats) “lean” towards one party, meaning they favor either Democrats or Republicans by 5-10 points in a Default year. Only 8% (40 seats) are true “tossups.”
https://www.fairvote.org/2022_monopoly_politics_release
And when people feel trapped, many don't vote. CA is still counting ballots from last Tuesday's primary but currently the turn out is 21.4%. A ballot was mailed to every CA voter and there are drop off boxes all over CA or mail it back the postage is free.
40 seats can make the difference between majority or minority and Democrats alienate a lot of voters by constantly pushing gun control.
Biden’s old boss, Barack Obama, put together a winning coalition during his presidency, combining college-educated whites with young, Black and Latino voters. The danger for Democrats is that Biden appears to be unraveling that coalition. About the only groups still solidly in his camp are dedicated members of the Democratic base, such as Black voters and college-educated women.
Biden carried close to two-thirds of Hispanic voters in 2020, but their shift toward Trump, compared to 2016, was notable, especially in states such as Florida and Texas. In the Texas primaries in March this year, participation in GOP primaries was up dramatically in heavily Hispanic portions of South Texas that traditionally have been overwhelmingly Democratic. An NPR/Marist poll released last month found that 52 percent of Latinos say they’re more likely to support Republican candidates for Congress; just 39 percent favor Democrats.
Young voters have been a particular problem for Biden. Voters under 30 favored Biden over Trump, 60 percent to 39 percent, in 2020, but they’ve soured on him since. Biden’s approval rating among young voters has dropped by 18 points over the past year, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics poll – which is in line with what other pollsters are finding.
Even as Democrats shed support among Latinos, young voters and parents, the party’s longstanding problem with working-class white voters continues to worsen. The April NPR/Marist poll found Democrats are only favored by a third of white voters without college degrees, compared to 55 percent who say they are likely to support Republicans. “The people who are left backing Biden are the people who would back any Democrat under anything except extreme circumstances,” Olsen says. “That’s a terrible place to be in for an election. You’ve lost America’s middle.”
https://www.governing.com/now/you-dont- ... -this-year
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan