https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/21/politics ... index.html
"The polling ahead of the 2022 midterms has been marked by a shrinking of electoral divisions. Young and older voters are now more likely to agree on their views of President Joe Biden. The Democratic advantage among Black and Hispanic voters, while still clear, is smaller.
Perhaps more surprisingly as we head into the heart of the primary season, the same is true when it comes to gender. Even after the leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, there are signs of a smaller gender gap among voters.
Republicans are on pace to do much better with women than the last midterm elections in 2018.
Every two years, I have a tradition of writing on a widening gender gap before the election. I did it in 2016, 2018 and 2020. All of those cycles featured wide differences in voting between men and women, though those variations tended to be larger at this point than what actually came to bear.
Right now, the divide is considerably smaller than it was in May 2018, which was considered by many to be a second “Year of the Woman.” Men favor Republican candidates for Congress by 13 points compared with women backing Democrats by 7 points, according to an average of six recent national polls from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox, NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University. That makes for a gender gap of 20 points.
This margin may seem large (and it’s not small), but it was 29 points per the average of these same polls at this point four years ago. (Aggregated CNN polling from late 2019 put the gender gap in a matchup between Biden and former President Donald Trump at an even larger 34 points.)
The current smaller divide disproportionately comes because of female voters. While Republicans are doing 4 points better among men than at this point in 2018, they’re doing 13 points better among women.
I also looked at the polls that were fully conducted after the leak of the draft Supreme Court opinion that would end Roe v. Wade. The Democratic lead among women in the race for Congress is the same 7 points in these polls, as it is in the larger average.
This could change if Roe is overturned. Still, the gender gap on abortion is significantly smaller than on other issues, so such a scenario would probably affect the voting patterns of men and women similarly.
One reason why women are probably less favorably disposed toward Democratic candidates: their feelings about Biden. According to Gallup, Biden’s approval rating among women has gone from 62% at the beginning of his presidency to 46% now. This 16-point drop is greater than the 11-point drop Biden has had with men.
Indeed, Biden’s Gallup approval gender gap of 10 points last month was 5 points smaller than Trump’s 15-point gap in April 2018, even though they had basically the same approval rating overall.
Moreover, Republican gains with women aren’t just about the polls and voters. It’s about who is running for office. Republicans have made an effort to recruit more female candidates, including a group launched in April to elect more female GOP governors. There are only three right now.
This coming week, Gov. Kay Ivey and former Trump press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders are favored to win the Republican nomination for governor in Alabama and Arkansas, respectively. And they would be very likely to win the general election in the fall.
This comes on the heels of Oregon’s Republican primary for governor, where state Rep. Christine Drazan is currently leading and the candidate in second place has conceded.
Indeed, I count at least three strong pickup opportunities for female GOP candidates in this year’s gubernatorial races. There is the Trump-backed Kari Lake in Arizona, Sanders in Arkansas and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin. Lake and Kleefisch have to get through primaries and then need to win general elections in swing states.
But if all three win, there could be six female Republican governors serving concurrently in 2023. (Ivey and Govs. Kim Reynolds of Iowa and Kristi Noem of South Dakota are favored for reelection this year.) That would be a record."
Roe vs Wade will not matter that much with out of control gas prices, out of control inflation, and families watching their finances devastated while Democrats control Congress and the Presidency. It's time to face it, Biden is a complete embarrassment with the baby formula crisis. Unless inflation and gas prices return to normal between now and November, Democrats will be facing a massive wipeout in the Midterms.
Democrats losing ground with female voters
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Last edited by GeorgiaRN on Mon May 23, 2022 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EAT,SLEEP,RANGE,REPEAT