Democrats losing ground with female voters

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/21/politics ... index.html

"The polling ahead of the 2022 midterms has been marked by a shrinking of electoral divisions. Young and older voters are now more likely to agree on their views of President Joe Biden. The Democratic advantage among Black and Hispanic voters, while still clear, is smaller.

Perhaps more surprisingly as we head into the heart of the primary season, the same is true when it comes to gender. Even after the leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, there are signs of a smaller gender gap among voters.

Republicans are on pace to do much better with women than the last midterm elections in 2018.

Every two years, I have a tradition of writing on a widening gender gap before the election. I did it in 2016, 2018 and 2020. All of those cycles featured wide differences in voting between men and women, though those variations tended to be larger at this point than what actually came to bear.

Right now, the divide is considerably smaller than it was in May 2018, which was considered by many to be a second “Year of the Woman.” Men favor Republican candidates for Congress by 13 points compared with women backing Democrats by 7 points, according to an average of six recent national polls from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox, NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University. That makes for a gender gap of 20 points.

This margin may seem large (and it’s not small), but it was 29 points per the average of these same polls at this point four years ago. (Aggregated CNN polling from late 2019 put the gender gap in a matchup between Biden and former President Donald Trump at an even larger 34 points.)

The current smaller divide disproportionately comes because of female voters. While Republicans are doing 4 points better among men than at this point in 2018, they’re doing 13 points better among women.

I also looked at the polls that were fully conducted after the leak of the draft Supreme Court opinion that would end Roe v. Wade. The Democratic lead among women in the race for Congress is the same 7 points in these polls, as it is in the larger average.

This could change if Roe is overturned. Still, the gender gap on abortion is significantly smaller than on other issues, so such a scenario would probably affect the voting patterns of men and women similarly.

One reason why women are probably less favorably disposed toward Democratic candidates: their feelings about Biden. According to Gallup, Biden’s approval rating among women has gone from 62% at the beginning of his presidency to 46% now. This 16-point drop is greater than the 11-point drop Biden has had with men.

Indeed, Biden’s Gallup approval gender gap of 10 points last month was 5 points smaller than Trump’s 15-point gap in April 2018, even though they had basically the same approval rating overall.

Moreover, Republican gains with women aren’t just about the polls and voters. It’s about who is running for office. Republicans have made an effort to recruit more female candidates, including a group launched in April to elect more female GOP governors. There are only three right now.

This coming week, Gov. Kay Ivey and former Trump press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders are favored to win the Republican nomination for governor in Alabama and Arkansas, respectively. And they would be very likely to win the general election in the fall.

This comes on the heels of Oregon’s Republican primary for governor, where state Rep. Christine Drazan is currently leading and the candidate in second place has conceded.

Indeed, I count at least three strong pickup opportunities for female GOP candidates in this year’s gubernatorial races. There is the Trump-backed Kari Lake in Arizona, Sanders in Arkansas and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin. Lake and Kleefisch have to get through primaries and then need to win general elections in swing states.

But if all three win, there could be six female Republican governors serving concurrently in 2023. (Ivey and Govs. Kim Reynolds of Iowa and Kristi Noem of South Dakota are favored for reelection this year.) That would be a record."


Roe vs Wade will not matter that much with out of control gas prices, out of control inflation, and families watching their finances devastated while Democrats control Congress and the Presidency. It's time to face it, Biden is a complete embarrassment with the baby formula crisis. Unless inflation and gas prices return to normal between now and November, Democrats will be facing a massive wipeout in the Midterms.
Last edited by GeorgiaRN on Mon May 23, 2022 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EAT,SLEEP,RANGE,REPEAT

Re: Democrats losing ground with female voters

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Sadly, the perception of the Democratic Party does not include a whole lot of either integrity or gumption.

My own perceptions are a result of the fact that I'm FAR left on most political spectrums compared to supposed firebrands like AOC, but heck.

I can see why women would feel abandoned by the Democratic Party. A LOT of my Black neighbors feel that way...
Eventually I'll figure out this signature thing and decide what I want to put here.

Re: Democrats losing ground with female voters

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The article was written by Harry Enten formerly of 538, his analysis is thorough. 2018 was the midterm when Trump was in the WH and his opponents were very motivated to vote against him, the tables are reversed in 2022. The ground is shifting under political parties and pollsters and analysts like Enten spot the trends. Republicans used to be the party of the wealthy and Democrats were the working class party, now Democrats include millionaires and billionaires and Republicans include working class voters.

The black community is the most loyal to the Democratic Party, while Latinos are a mixed bag. If blacks, especially black women aren't voting solidly Democratic then that's not good for the party in 2022.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Democrats losing ground with female voters

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featureless wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:46 am
CDFingers wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 9:45 am
sikacz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 7:15 am It’s been pretty clear for a long time dems are lukewarm on unions and the working class.
Those would be the neoliberals, yes.

CDFingers
Don't see more than a handful that quality as anything but neoliberal.
Y’all are correct. Still they have taken over the Democratic Party.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: Democrats losing ground with female voters

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sikacz wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 6:12 am
featureless wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:46 am
CDFingers wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 9:45 am
sikacz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 7:15 am It’s been pretty clear for a long time dems are lukewarm on unions and the working class.
Those would be the neoliberals, yes.

CDFingers
Don't see more than a handful that quality as anything but neoliberal.
Y’all are correct. Still they have taken over the Democratic Party.

Call them neoliberal or libertarian, they have money and influence and it takes a lot of money to win elections. And the big money dictates policy issues for the party like gun control.
For much of the last decade, Democrats complained — with a mix of indignation, frustration and envy — that Republicans and their allies were spending hundreds of millions of difficult-to-trace dollars to influence politics. “Dark money” became a dirty word, as the left warned of the threat of corruption posed by corporations and billionaires that were spending unlimited sums through loosely regulated nonprofits, which did not disclose their donors’ identities. Then came the 2020 election.

Spurred by opposition to then-President Trump, donors and operatives allied with the Democratic Party embraced dark money with fresh zeal, pulling even with and, by some measures, surpassing Republicans in 2020 spending, according to a New York Times analysis of tax filings and other data. The analysis shows that 15 of the most politically active nonprofit organizations that generally align with the Democratic Party spent more than $1.5 billion in 2020 — compared to roughly $900 million spent by a comparable sample of 15 of the most politically active groups aligned with the G.O.P.

The findings reveal the growth and ascendancy of a shadow political infrastructure that is reshaping American politics, as megadonors to these nonprofits take advantage of loose disclosure laws to make multimillion-dollar outlays in total secrecy. Some good-government activists worry that the exploding role of undisclosed cash threatens to accelerate the erosion of trust in the country’s political system. Democrats’ newfound success in harnessing this funding also exposes the stark tension between their efforts to win elections and their commitment to curtail secretive political spending by the superrich.
The scale of secret spending is such that, even as small donors have become a potent force in politics, undisclosed money dwarfed the 2020 campaign fund-raising of President Biden (who raised a record $1 billion) and Mr. Trump (who raised more than $810 million).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/p ... onors.html

Democrats can't play the moral high ground anymore, they're out to raise as much money as they can.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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